Chapter 2/ForecastsKalispell City Airport Feasibility Study January 1999
CHAPTER TWO - FORECASTS
Forecasts of future aviation demand are to be addressed in sufficient detail to confirm the
forecasted need for a B-11' airport.
Two critical tasks that are part of forecasting future aviation demand are establishing
baseline values for based aircraft, aircraft mix, local and itinerant air operations, air taxi, and military
air operations, and determining an appropriate rate of growth. Of the two tasks, determining the
baseline is both more critical and more difficult.
In order to determine this baseline Morrison-Maierle used three sources: FAA Form 5010
Airport Master Record, first hand observation, and survey of local area pilots.
The FAA Form 5010 Airport Master Record for Kalispell City Airport dated August 13,
1998, is included in Appendix E. The Form 5010 indicates that there are 56 single -engine aircraft,
three multi -engine aircraft, one helicopter, one sailplane, and three ultra -lights. It further indicates
that there are 6,400 air taxi, 13,600 general aviation (GA) local, 14,000 GA itinerant, and 1,000
military air operations'.
In May 1998, Morrison-Maierle personnel observed 38 single -engine aircraft, six multi -
engine aircraft, and three sailplanes tied down at Kalispell City Airport. Additionally, there were
18 hangar spaces which were assumed to be occupied, although occupancy was not confirmed. No
helicopters nor ultra -light aircraft were observed. Although a number of air operations were
observed, these observations were insufficient to confirm or deny the operations estimates from the
FAA Form 5010. All aircraft observed were small airplanes with wingspans less than 49 feet.
In July 1998, Morrison-Maierle surveyed 223 local area pilots and received 96 responses.
The objectives of the survey were to:
Determine the most demanding aircraft that regularly uses Kalispell City Airport
(defined as at least 500 take -offs, landings, or touch -and -goes).
AAirport Reference Code (ARC) from Federal Aviation Administration Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5300-
13 Airport Design. The ARC has two components relating to the airport design aircraft. The first component,
depicted by a letter, is the aircraft approach category and relates to the aircraft approach speed. The second
component, depicted by a Roman numeral, is the airplane design group and relates to airplane wingspan. In this
case, a B-II airport would be one that the design aircraft (defined as the most demanding aircraft which uses the
airport at least 500 takeoffs, landings, or touch-and-gos) has an approach speed of at least 91 knots, but less than
121 knots, and having a wingspan of at least 49 feet but less that 79 feet.
'One air operation is defined as one takeoff, one landing, or one touch-and-go.
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Kalispell City Airport Feasibility Study January 1999
2. Determine the total number of air operations per year.
3. Determine the total number of based aircraft.
4. Determine the average stage length for aircraft departures.
5. Determine primary reason for use of Kalispell City Airport.
6. Determine how many passengers are carried from Kalispell City Airport.
7. Determine level of interest for hangar development at Kalispell City Airport.
8. Determine average maximum acceptable hanger lease rate.
Survey respondents indicated a wide variety of small aircraft, all with gross weights less than
12,500 and wingspans less than 49 feet. Twenty respondents indicated that they base their aircraft
at Kalispell City Airport. The total air operations, based on the survey response, is -16,271.
Respondents indicated they carry one passenger every other time they fly, on average. Thirty-nine
respondents indicated that they would be interested in leasing hangar space on the airport, and the
average maximum acceptable rate would be $108.17 per month. A summary of survey response is
included in Appendix H.
Table 2 - Baseline Summary
Based Aircraft Air Operation
Source Single Multi Glider . Air Taxi Itinerant Local Military
FAA 56 3 1 6,400 13,600 14,000 1,000
Form
5010
Observed 56 6 3 0
Pilots 20 3 14,646 1,628
Survey
Study El
6 3 6,400 13,600 14,000 100
Baseline ]E
For the purpose of this study, observed data for based aircraft shall be used as the base line.
The itinerant air operations reported on FAA Form 5010 Airport Master Record shall be used as a
base line for itinerant air operations. This is slightly less than the estimate10 that an airport has 300
itinerant operations per year per based aircraft (total would be 18,600 itinerant air operations). Local
air operations reported on the FAA Form 5010 shall be used as the base line for local air operations.
Military operations reported on the FAA Form 5010 are probably inflated, a more probable baseline
figure is 100 military operations per year. "
'OUS Department of Commerce, National Technical Information Service, ADA 257658, Estimating the
Regional Economic Significance ofAirports, rage 8.
This is based on a conversation with FBO who estimated actual military use of Kalispell City
Airport at 2 to 3 per month.
16
Kalispell City Airport Feasibility Study January 1999
According to FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 Airport Design, in the absence of
observed data, an estimate of 538 air operations per based aircraft could be used to estimate the total
number of operations.' This is a total air operations estimate of 33,356 total operations, which
agrees with the FAA Form 5010.
The survey indicated that there are no B-II aircraft based at Kalispell City Airport at present,
however, it also indicated that at least one pilot was interested in acquiring a Cessna Conquest
sometime in the next ten years, if adequate facilities were available.
In the Glacier Park International Airport Master Plan Update, dated January 20,1995, it was
estimated that air operations at Glacier Park International Airport would increase at a rate of 1.9%
annually. This rate of growth seems reasonable, if optimistic, for the whole Flathead Valley.
Forecasts are summarized in Table 3 and Table 4.
Table 3 - Forecast Air Operations
2003
2008
2013
2018
Air Taxi
6,720
7,056
7,409
7,779
G/A Local
15,410
16,951
18,646
20,511
G/A Itinerant
15,630
17,964
20,646
23,728
Military
109
119
130
141
,I Total
1 37,869
1 42,089
46,830
52,159
Table 4 - Forecast Based Aircraft
2003 2a08 2013 20.1.8
Single -engine 65 72 80 90
Multi -engine 9 12 15 20
II Jet 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 II
11 Glider 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 5 II
Helicopter
I 1
I 1
I 2
I 3
Total
78
1 88
1 102
119
12AC 15015300-I3 airport Design, Appendix 5, page 117.
17
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