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1. Core Area Market Analysis - Willdan Financial Services�v City of Kalispell Post Office Box 1997 - Kalispell, Montana 59903 Telephone: (406) 758-7701 Fax: (406) 758-7758 MEMORANDUM To: Doug Russell, City Manager® Cc: Tom Jentz, Planning Director From: Katharine Thompson, Community Development Manager Re: Core Area Plan and Market Analysis Presentation Meeting Date: June 24, 2013 The City Council has previously adopted the Core Area Plan as a roadmap for the revitalization of Kalispell's central, historically industrial, core area. Components of the plan include relocation of rail line and related business to provide for enhanced redevelopment opportunities as identified in the Core Area Plan. In the supplementary steps to the planning effort, Willdan Financial Services has prepared a market analysis specific to the Core Area which has been included as an appendix to the Core Area Plan. The market analysis details current economic conditions and addresses indicators for growth in the Core Area. Additionally, Willdan has provided the City with recommendations for financing different components within the plan, some of which are already being implemented, such as the application for TIGER grant funding for the development of the rail park. Staff will present a brief review of the Core Area Plan followed by a presentation from Willdan Financial Services of the results of their study of the Core Area. Respectfully submitted, Ka arine Thompson Community Development Manager Community & Economic Development - v •. .n...N� .erg y iL. ��. vk e�Y v ' wti.sl Ne 'wewtlr• n. y C.Aty of Kalispell. Montano ,*,%/WILLDAN I yoUnding Financial Services .each Draft Project Report Kalispell Core Area Market Analysis and Feasibility Analysis Prepared for City of Kalispell Department of Community Planning & Economic Development and the Kalispell Core Area Steering Committee Submitted by Willdan Financial and Economic Consulting Services (Willdan) June 21, 2013 Table of Contents I. Introduction & Executive Summary II. Baseline Demographic & Economic Overview Population Households Age Profile Income Profile Unemployment and Labor Force Educational Attainment Skills Gap Kalispell Tourism Market III. Residential Market Analysis New Housing Construction Trends in Kalispell Housing Market Sales Prices & Pace in Kalispell Kalispell Apartment Market Trends Flathead County Housing Market Trends & Projections Housing Affordability in Flathead County Residential Development Opportunity in the Core Area IV. Retail Market Analysis Core Area Site Characteristics Retail Trade Areas Primary Trade Area Secondary Trade Area Retail Competition Overview V. Office Market Analysis VI. Business Park/industrial Market Analysis Key Recommendations Vll. Hotel and Hospitality Market Analysis Vill. Opportunities and Constraints: Implications for Core Area Plan Strengths and Opportunities Constraints/Threats IX. Core Area Economic Development Recommendations Scenario 1 — Status Quo (Maintain Rail in Core Area) Scenario 2 — Conservative (Limited Expansion of Core Area Retail) Scenario 3 — Optimistic (Major Expansion of Core Area Retail) Long -Term Redevelopment Potential Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 3 7 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 14 17 17 17 19 19 20 21 23 23 24 24 25 25 32 33 33 35 36 37 39 40 40 41 42 43 Rationale 43 Recommended Retail Recruitment Strategies 44 Leasing and Management 44 Phasing and Action Items 44 Conclusions 45 X. Kalispell Linear Park Conceptual Plan 47 Introduction 47 Linear Park Layout and Programming 47 Key Regional Trail Connection Points 48 Proposed Linear Park Programming "Bump out' Nodes 48 Street Extensions/ Railroad Crossing Conversions 49 Connection to the City of Kalispell Parks and Recreation Network 49 Linear Park Capital Cost Assumptions 49 Rail Line Removal 50 Linear Park Trail 50 Summary of Construction Costs 50 Linear Park Operating Cost Assumptions 52 XI. Core Area Financial Feasibility & Implementation Plan 53 Summary of Key Findings 53 Annex A: Detailed Assumptions & Calculations 59 Annex B: Public Park/Recreation Development Opportunities — Case Studies 60 Portland Trails, Maine 60 Potomac Overlook Regional Park Nature Education Center, Arlington, Virginia 61 Carolina Thread Trail & Cawtaba Lands Conservancy, North and South Carolina 62 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 4 Index of Tables/Figures Figure 1: Population Counts and Estimate (2010, 2012, 2017).............................................................................. Figure 2: Household Counts and Estimate (2010, 2012, 2017).............................................................................. Figure12012 Population by Age.......................................................................................................................... Figure4: 2017 Population by Age.......................................................................................................................... Figure 5: Income Profile for the City of Kalispell..................................................................................................... Figure 6: Income Profile for Flathead County......................................................................................................... Figure 7: Per Capita Income, Flathead County, 1997-2010................................................................................... Figure 8: Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income, Flathead County................................................................. Figure 9: Flathead County Employment Trends 2005 - 2010................................................................................. Figure 10: Unemployment Rate, Flathead County, Not Seasonally Adjusted........................................................ Figure 11: Educational Attainment in Flathead County.......................................................................................... Figure 12: Educational Attainment in the United States......................................................................................... Figure 13: Glacier National Park Visitor Spending (2010 and 2023 Projection)..................................................... Figure 14: Residential Construction Pipeline, City of Kalispell............................................................................... Figure 15: Home Sales and Median Sales Price in Kalispell (2007-2012)............................................................. Figure 16: Median Home Values, Kalispell Zip Code 59901.................................................................................. Figure 17: Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income.............................................................................. Figure 18: Occupancy of Housing Units, Flathead County, 2010........................................................................... Figure 19: Housing Affordability Index, Flathead County 2007-2010..................................................................... Figure 20: Average Annual Housing Unit Construction.......................................................................................... Figure 21: Conceptual Redevelopment Alternatives — Residential Development................................................... Figure 22: Target -Anchored Shopping Center (Highway 93 North)........................................................................ Figure 23: Kalispell Retail Competition Map. .......................................................................................................... Figure 24: Retail Gap Analysis - City of Kalispell................................................................................................... Figure 25: Conceptual Redevelopment Alternatives — Retail Development........................................................... Figure 26: Incremental Residential Retail Spending Power & 10-Year Supportable Retail Development (2022)... Figure 27: Food, Retail & Entertainment Demand from Glacier National Park Visitor Spending (Square Feet)..... Figure 28: Current Kalispell Office Market Lease Rate Trends.............................................................................. Figure 29: Leads for Rail Industrial Park................................................................................................................ Figure 30: Profile of Kalispell Area Hotel/Lodging Properties................................................................................. Figure31: Downtown Kalispell............................................................................................................................... Figure 32: Proposed Core Area Redevelopment................................................................................................... Figure 33: Current Conditions: Kalispell Center Mall Parking Lot... ........................................................................ Figure 34: Summary of Linear Park Development Costs and Phasing Recommendations .................................... .. 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 40 43 ......... 45 ......... 51 & Feasibility Analysis Page 5 Figure 35: Kalispell Linear Park Annual Operating Cost Estimates................................................................................................................ 52 Figure 36: Core Area Financial Feasibility Analysis — Summary Results....................................................................................................... 53 Figure 37: Core Area Plan Real Property Tax Revenue Assumptions —Incremental Taxes Per Square Foot from Similar Redevelopment Activity........................................................................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 38: Fiscal Benefits at Buildout - Summary of Scenarios...................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 39: Core Area Grant Funding Resource Strategy............................................................................................................................... 56 Figure 40: Potomac Overlook Regional Park Environmental Stewardship Programming.............................................................................. 62 Figure 41: Carolina Thread Trail Park Identification Signage......................................................................................................................... 62 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 6 I. Introduction & Executive Summary The City of Kalispell commissioned this Core Area Commercial Market Analysis ("Market Analysis') to assist it in the redevelopment of the Core Area. The City has developed a vision to revitalize the Core Area while retaining its character and identity. This Market Analysis will identify the opportunities to realize the vision, the impediments to implementation, and provide direction on bringing the plan from concept to reality. This study analyzes the plan's impact on fiscal revenues, job creation (both one-time construction and ongoing permanent jobs), and indirect spending. It also evaluates the environmental, social, and other public benefits that are difficult to quantify, but have a positive impact on the community. The City's vision is to increase the appeal of the Core Area by: • Removing the railroad tracks that bisects the Project Area and replace the tracks with a Linear Park; Improving and upgrading existing properties to remove the blighted areas within the Core Area; and • Developing a compatible mix of commercial retail, neighborhood services, residential housing and public areas that meets the needs of residents and fosters a greater sense of community. In turn, the proposed redevelopment will strengthen the local economy by increasing the local tax base, attracting new residents and businesses, creating new jobs, and increasing tourism. This report will assess and analyze development opportunities in the following sectors: • Retail • Office • Business Park • Hotel and Hospitality • Institutional • Single and Multi Family Housing The report will also identify ways in which public policy can encourage appropriately scaled new development that will positively shape and reinforce the Core Area of Kalispell through: • Retention of existing retailers • Strategy for the recruitment of new commercial uses • Impact of any recent and proposed development projects • Apparent strengths and weaknesses in Kalispell for the following development sectors; Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 7 Elements that may now (or in the future) support or constrain the goals of the Core Area Strategy; The consumers' experience within Kalispell and the Core Area; Characteristics within Kalispell that have the greatest impact on development; Voids and opportunities in the marketplace that will affect local retailers and national chains; and Public improvements and public and private investment strategies to reinforce project goals and objectives. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 8 11. Baseline Demographic & Economic Overview Population The City of Kalispell and Flathead County are both growing. Figure 1 shows that Kalispell had 20,603 residents in 2012. This number represents a growth rate of 1.70 percent per year from the 2010 US Census to 2012. Flathead County grew from 90,928 residents as reported in the 2010 US Census to 94,275 in 2012. The county grew at a rate of 1.84 percent per year during that time. The city and county are both expected to continue adding residents, but the rate of this growth is expected to slow over the next five years. Between 2012 and 2017 Kalispell is expected to grow its population by more than 1,200 residents, an annual growth rate of 1.20 percent. Flathead County will reach a population of 100,620 in 2017 by having an annual growth rate of 1.35 percent Figure 1: Population Counts and Estimate (2010, 2012, 2017) Flathead County 90,928 94,275 Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Willdan, 2013. 1.70% 1.84% 1.20% 1.35% Households The 2010 US Census identified 8,638 households in the City of Kalispell, as shown in Figure 2. By 2012, this number had grown by an annual rate of 1.53 percent to 8,903 while the population grew more quickly at 1.70 percent per year. Though the population of the City is expected to grow 1.2 percent annually from 2012 to 2017, the number of households is expected to rise 1.44 percent to 9,546 by 2017. The city added households more slowly than population from 2010 to 2012, but will add households more quickly than population from 2012 to 2017. Flathead County reflects this trend as well. While the population of the county grew by an annual rate of 1.84 percent from 2010 to 2012, the number of households only grew by 1.66 percent per year, from 37,504 to 38,748 in the same period. However, as the rate of population growth in the county is expected to decline to an annual rate of 1.35 percent, the annual household growth rate will increase to 1.58 percent per year, bringing the total number of households expected by 2017 to 41,808. Figure 2; Household Counts and Estimate (2010, 2012, 2017) Kalispell 8,638 8,903 1.53% 9,546 1.44% Flathead County 37,504 38,748 1.66% 41,808 1.58% Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Willdan, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market 8, Feasibility Analysis Page 9 IV As in indicated in Figure 1 and Figure 2, both the City of Kalispell and Flathead County are expected to add households faster than they grow their populations. This signals anticipated demand for new housing starts. Friends and family cohabitating out of economic necessity will choose to form new households once their economic conditions allow it. The expected rise in household formation by 2017 indicates both a strengthening economy as well as reflects a larger national trend of decreasing household sizes regardless of economic conditions. Age Profile Both the City of Kalispell and Flathead County have a larger portion of the population in the 25 to 64 age range, the portion of the population that traditionally financially supports the other ends of the age spectrum. As Figure 3 shows, the population in 2012 in Kalispell that is in this age bracket is smaller than the same age cohort in the county as a whole; 50.6 percent as compared to 54.9 percent. The bulk of the difference in the remaining population comes in the younger age bracket. In the city, 33.5 percent of the population is under the age of 25 while just 30.4 percent of the county's population is in this younger demographic. The City of Kalispell is younger than Flathead County. Figure 3: 2012 Population by Age City of Kalispell 33.5% 50.6% 15.9% 30.4% 54.8% 14.9% Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Willdan, 2013. These trends are expected to continue through 2017. While the Kalispell is expected to remain generally younger than Flathead County, both places will cope with an aging population. Figure 4 shows that the portion of the population age 65 and older is expected to grow. By 2017, the city's retirement -aged population will be 17.5 percent of the population while the county will have a 16.9 percent share of older residents. Figure 4: 2017 Population by Age City of Kalispell 32.7% 49.8% 17.5% Flathead County 29.3% 53.7% 16.9% Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Willdan, 2013. Income Profile In 2012 the median household income in the City of Kalispell was $37,319, as shown in Figure S. The share of households earning more than $75,000 per year was 19.2 percent. By 2017, the median income is projected to grow to $41,906, an increase of 12.29 percent, or 2.46 percent on an annualized basis. By 2017, 22.3 percent of households will earn more than $75,000. The per -capita income is also projected to grow from $21,768 in 2012 to $24,169 by 2017, increasing by 16AS percent. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 10 Mr Figure 5: Income Profile for the City of Kalispell I 1 • Median Household Income $ 37,319 $ 41,906 12.29% Per -capita Income $ 21,768 $ 24,169 11.03% % of Households earning $75k or more 19.2% 22.3% 16.15% Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Willdan, 2013 Figure 6 demonstrates that residents of the county tend to be slightly wealthier than City residents. The median household income for Flathead County was $42,873 in 2012, and 23.7 percent of the county's households made more than $75,000 annually. By 2017, the median income is projected to grow to $50,288, an increase of 17.30 percent C3.46 annually), and the share of households earning more than $75,000 per year will increase to 27.5 percent From 2012 to 2017, the region's per -capita income is projected to grow from $23,242 to $25,782. Figure 6: Income Profile for Flathead County Median Household Income $ 42,873 Per -capita Income $ 23,242 % of Households earning $75k+ 23.7% Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Willdan, 2013. Flathead County's per capita income rose steadily from 1997 to 2008, as demonstrated in Figure 7. This metric peaked in 2008 when the per capita income for the county surpassed $35,000 in 2010 dollars. When the economy faltered in 2009, it caused the per capita income levels of the counts residents to fall for the first time in a decade. In 2010, the per capita income for the county rose, but still fell short of the pre - recession figures slightly. Figure 7: Per Capita Income, Flathead County,1997-2010 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ 50,288 17.30% $ 25,782 10.93% Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Business and Economic Research; Willdan, 2013. 27.5% 16.03% Nonfarm labor income measures how an economy is doing. Nonfarm income grew 28 percent between 2003 and 2007, as shown in Figure 8. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 11 Nonfarm labor income declined in 2008 and 2009 as major industries including construction and wood products manufacturing experienced upheaval. Some recovery occurred in 2010 as the wood products industry and construction industry stabilized at lower levels, but the economy will take several years of consistent growth to fully stabilize to pre -recession strength. Figure 8: Percent Change in Nonfarm Labor Income, Flathead County 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 10.0% 13.4`Yo 12.4% 6.3% 7.2% 6.4% 4.2% 5.1% 2.4% 1.1 % 0.2% -3.0% Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Business and Economic Research; Widen, 2013. Unemployment and Labor Force Unemployment rates for Flathead County began to climb as the United States entered a recessionary period in 2008. Prior to that time, unemployment rates held steady under 5 percent. By 2009, the unemployment rate in Flathead County had risen to more than 10 percent. Figure 9 shows the trend of rising unemployment rates by year in Flathead County, Montana from 200S to 2010. Figure 9: Flathead County Employment Trends 2005 - 2010 50 15% 10% a 45 c 5% 0 L H 40 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 —Labor Force ®% Unemployment Source: Montana Department of labor and Industry; Wilidan, 2013. Figure 9 also demonstrates that while the labor force declined from its peak in 2008, the labor force did not diminish in the recession to below the labor force numbers from 2005. This shows that the decrease in the labor force is not the result of outmigration or retirement, but rather a diminishment of the number of residents no longer seeking employment. Figure 10 shows the not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for Flathead County, including their fluctuations from season to season. A clearer picture of the unemployment trend can be seen by observing Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 12 the linear unemployment on the graph. This trend line shows that the overall rate has been dropping approximately one percentage point per year since 2010, when the average rate was around 10 percent At peak unemployment season in 2010, the unemployment rate was nearly 14 percent By September 2012, the monthly employment rate for the county had dropped to 7.3 percent This rate has subsequently risen, an expected trend given the cyclical nature of unemployment. However, the overall trend since the beginning of 2010 has been one of declining unemployment rates in Flathead County. Figure 10: Unemployment Rate, Flathead County, Not Seasonally Adjusted 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 —Unemployment Rate — ----Linear(UnemploymentRate) Source: Bureau of labor Statistics; Willdan, 2013 According to the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, the recession hit the Flathead economy harder than any other major urban area in the state. The nonfarm labor income decline of 2.7 percent in 2008 and the 9.3 percent decrease in 2009 were the largest among the counties reported. Flathead County's unemployment rate rose to 11.3 percent in November 2010, higher than any of the other large counties in the state. These sizable impacts were the result of permanent closures (such as Columbia Falls Aluminum Company) combined with cyclic declines in major industries such as wood products, nonresident travel, and construction. According to the Montana Department of labor and Industry, it will be at least 2015 before real nonfarm labor income (an overall measure of the economy) in Flathead County regains its 2007 peal. However, the Kalispell economy is undergoing recovery. The evolution of Kalispell into a regional trade and service center continues to be one of the growing sectors of the economic base. Educational Attainment Educational attainment in Flathead County compares favorably to the rest of the country for those without a college degree. As Figure 11 and Figure 12 show, the share of the population over the age of 25 without a high school diploma in Flathead County is just 8.07 percent compared to 14.61 percent nationally. Continuing this trend, the share of the population over age 25 that has a high school diploma or an equivalent degree but not college experience is 32.1 percent in Flathead County, while just 28.64 percent of the nation fall into this category. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 13 Figure 11: Educational Attainment in Flathead County 20,221 20,465 17,223 100% 8.07% 32.10% 32.49% 27.34% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Willdan 2013. Flathead County also boasts impressive educational attainment for the segments of the population with college degrees. The share of the population over the age of 25 with some college or an associate's degree in Flathead County is 32.49 percent compared to the national figure of 28.55 percent. Additionally, the share of the adult population in Flathead County with a bachelor's degree or higher is 27.34 percent, less than one percentage point off of the national figure of 28.2 percent. Figure 12: Educational Attainment in the United States 202,048,123 29,518,935 57,861,283 57,694,281 56,973,624 100% 14.61% 28.64% 28.55% 28.20% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; Willdan 2013. Skills Gap Despite boasting strong educational attainment, the skill set of the local workforce in Flathead County does not adequately address the skills that businesses in the area need. According to a report by Montana West Economic Development Corporation and Flathead County Economic Development Authority, a "skills gap' exists in the county. Businesses have a difficult time finding employees who have the skills necessary to accomplish the jobs that they provide. To address this issue, the report recommends elevating the training resources available for advanced manufacturing in three specific fields: wood products, technology -oriented manufacturing, and entrepreneurial manufacturing. Dedicating resources to these specific industries would educate and attract a pipeline of current and future workers in the skills that businesses need. Flathead Valley Community College led a group of public, private, and educational partners to develop a curriculum designed to better teach workforce development skills. The private partners provide some of the resources needed to teach the students, and in return have a better educated workforce from which to select employees. The private sector partners have identified that they anticipate hiring 457 employees using these new skills between 2013 and 201S. New jobs in these fields bring with them new money to the local economy, fueling demand for redevelopment Kalispell Tourism Market The Kalispell economy benefits greatly from tourism spending due to its proximity to Glacier National Park and to the Canadian border. According to the National Park Service 2012 Economic Impact Study, Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 14 more than 2 million visitors spent approximately 110 million dollars in Glacier National Park and in communities near the park (based on 2010 data). That spending supported 1,695 jobs in the local area. The figures are based on $12 billion of direct spending by 281 million visitors in 394 national parks and nearby communities and are included in an annual, peer -reviewed, visitor spending analysis conducted by Michigan State University for the National Park Service. According to Glacier National Park Superintendent Chas Cartwright, Glacier National Park has historically been an economic driver in the state. The economic impact study demonstrates the substantial value of the diverse goods and services provided by local businesses to the park visitor, as well as the role of the park as an employment opportunities for the Flathead County region. Most of the spending and jobs are related to lodging, food, and beverage service (52 percent) followed by other retail (29 percent), entertainment/amusements (10 percent), gas and local transportation (7 percent) and groceries (2 percent). The Canadian visitor market also represents a significant share of the overall visitor market Canadian visitors travel to Kalispell to shop for apparel, electronics, household goods, and other retail goods to take advantage of Montana's lack of state and local sales taxes. Kalispell also draws a steady business traveler market due to its role as the governmental hub of the region (the County seat) and frequent trade shows and conferences. Taking the Glacier National Park visitor market as an example, the visitor spending generated by this market segment is substantial and is an indicator of the source of inflow support for retail goods and services in the Kalispell region. Based on 2010 visitation of 2.1 million visitors and an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent, Willdan estimates that Glacier National Park could expect to attract an additional 633,000 annual visitors over the next ten years. Assuming current per capita visitor spending patterns, Glacier National Park visitors are expected to generate $37.1 million in incremental (net new) annual spending by 2023. This potential redevelopment activity generated by visitor spending in the Core Area is analyzed further in the retail and lodging market analyses in this report. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 16 M Figure 13: Glacier National Park Visitor Spending (2010 and 2023 Projection) Visitors 2,261,470 2,318,007 2,375,957 2.435,356 2,496,240 2,558,646 2,622,612 2,688,178 2,755,382 2,824,267 2,894,873 Annual Net New Visitors 56,537 114,487 173,886 234,770 297,176 361,142 426.707 493,912 562,796 633,403 Visitor Spending — Per Capita and Gross Annual Lodging $17.45 $40,442,400 $41,453,460 $42,489,797 $43,552,041 $44,640,842 $45,756,864 $46,900,785 $48,073,305 $49,275,137 $50,507,016 Food & Beverage $9.39 $21,776,125 $22,320,528 $22,878,541 $23,450,505 $24,036,767 $24,637,687 $25,253,629 $25,884,970 $26,532,094 $27,195,396 Other Retail $14.97 $34,699,325 $35,566,808 $36,455,978 $37,367,378 $38,301,562 $39,259,101 $40,240,579 $41.246,593 $42,277,758 $43,334,702 Entertainment $5.16 $11,964,825 $12,263,946 $12,570,544 $12,884,808 $13,206.928 $13,537,101 $13,875,529 $14,222,417 $14,577,977 $14,942,427 Gas & Transport $3.61.. $8,375,275 $8,584,657 $8.799,273 $9.019,255 $9,244,737 $9,475,855 $9,712,751 $9,955,570 $10,204,459 $10,459,571 Groceries $1.03. $2,393,375 $2,453,209 $2,514,540 $2,577,403 $2,641.838 $2,707,884 $2,775,581 $2,844,971 $2,916,095 $2,988,997 Total $51.62 $119.651,325 $122,642,608 $125,708,673 $128,851,390 $132,072,675 $135,374,492 $138,758,854 $142,227,825 $145,783,521 $149,428,109 Visitor Spending — Per Capita and Net New Annual Lodging $i:4'' $986,400 $1,997,460 $3,033,796 $4,096,041 $5,184,842 $6,300,864 $7,444,785 $8,617,305 $9,819,137 $11,051,016 Food & Beverage w-$g39': $531,125 $1,075,528 $1,633,541 $2,205,505 $2,791,767 $3,392,687 $4,008,629 $4,639,970 $5,287,094 $5,950,396 Other Retail '$94.97, $846,325 $1,713,808 $2,602,978 $3,514,378 $4,448,562 $5,406,101 $6,387,579 $7,393,593 $8,424,758 $9,481,702 Entertainment $291,825 $590,946 $897,544 $1,211,808 $1,533,928 $1,864,101 $2,202,529 $2,549,417 $2,904,977 $3,269,427 Gas & Transport $204,275 $413,657 $628,273 $848,255 $1,073,737 $1,304,855 $1,541,751 $1,784,570 $2,033,459 $2,288,571 Groceries _r `$1.D3.'. $58,375 $118,209 $179,540 $242,403 $306,838 $372,884 $440,581 $509,971 $581,095 $653,997 Total $51.62 $2,918,325 $5,909,608 $8,975,673 $12,118,390 $15,339,675 $18,641,492 $22,025,854 $25,494,825 $29,050,521 $32,695,109 1/ Assumes averaue annual orowth rate = 2.50% Source: Glacier National Park Service; Willdan, 2013 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 16 III. Residential Market Analysis The City of Kalispell commissioned this Core Area Housing Market Analysis ("Market Analysis") to assist it in the redevelopment of the Core Area. The City has developed a vision to revitalize the Core Area while retaining its character and identity. This Market Analysis will discuss the current state of the housing market in the City of Kalispell. The analysis provides and overview of residential construction trends and projections to inform further dialogue on housing production in the Core Area and City. New Housing Construction Trends in Kalispell From 2003 through 2009, the creation of residential lots outpaced new residential construction every year but 2007. As Figure 14 shows, Kalispell added residential lots faster than housing units for nearly a decade. Once the economy slowed down in 2008 and 2009, construction companies slowed production to meet demand, but lot developers slowed production even more. As a result, builders constructed on the existing lots and have been slowly decreasing the pipeline of developable lots available for residential building. Meanwhile, the 2012 figures for new residential construction demonstrate that economic recovery has begun in Kalispell. Figure 14: Residential Construction Pipeline, City of Kalispell 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 4110 �0 p ■ Lots Created ■ New Residential Construction Source: Kelley Appraisal report on Flathead County's real estate market Willdan 2013 Housing Market Sales Prices & Pace in Kalispell The average sales price per square foot for homes in Kalispell was $99, an increase of 23.8 percent compared to February 2011. The median list price in May 2013 for single family homes in Kalispell is $249,900. The list prices increased by 3.15 percent from the previous month. The price per square foot for listings in this area is $153. However, the median sale price in February for single-family homes was $169,626, reflecting an increase of 7.0 percent from the prior month. & Feasibility Analysis Page 17 Figure 15: Home Sales and Median Sales Price in Kalispell (2007-2012) 400 1 1 $300,000 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 0 ........................ $- O Q O O d O O O O O O O � Housing Units (Left Axis) —Median Price (Right Axis) Source: City-Data.com; Willdan 2013. There are currently 547 resale and new homes for sale in Kalispell, including 36 homes in the pre -foreclosure, auction, or bank -owned stages of the foreclosure process. There are currently 6 new homes and 46 homes in excess of $500,000. The average listing price for homes for sale in Kalispell was $351,600 for the week ending March 20, 2013 which represents an increase of 4.8 percent, or $15,983, compared to the prior month. The high average listing price can be directly attributed to the 46 homes for sale in excess of $500,000. The February 2013 median home value in zip code 59901 is $147,500. Over the past six months, approximately 15 homes sold per month in the Kalispell market. Reviewing Kalispell building permit and construction data, approximately 50 new homes have been constructed annually in Kalispell since 2010. At the current rate of sales and new home development, it would take approximately 4 years to exhaust the current for sale housing supply. The average sales price per square foot for homes in Kalispell has increased 23.8 percent compared to February 2011. With both the median list and sales price of for -sale homes in Kalispell continuing to rise, it would appear that the housing market is improving. In speaking with the Kalispell Building Department, local realtors and the Flathead Valley Association of Realtors, local and national housing indicators point to increased production and demand for housing. Figure 16: Median Home Values, Kalispell Zip Code 59901 $2DD,00u $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100.000 Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 Source: Zillow.com; Wilder, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 18 Housing affordability for renters can be measured by calculating what a Kalispell Apartment Market Trends resident pays in gross rent as a percent of their household income. Based on primary market research conducted by Willdan, the Residents paying 30 percent of their household income on rent are said Appleway Court and Depot Place apartment projects have brought to be living in unaffordable units. Figure 17 shows that in Flathead renewed life to the rental community in Kalispell. Appleway Court County, 9.80 percent of the renters spend between 30 and 34.9 percent identifies a 98 percent occupancy rate and leasing at Depot Place of their household income on rent The figure also shows that 36.8 appears to be moving at a brisk pace. There are scant listings of percent of the population spends more than 35 percent of their available rental units in Kalispell. Current lease rates for traditional household income on rent In total a staggering 46.6 percent of the apartment communities in Kalispell are approximately $0.85 to $1.25 renters in Flathead County live in units that are considered by industry per square foot per month. Lease rates for single-family homes or units standard to be unaffordable. within single family homes dips slightly due to amenities, location and Flathead County Housing Market Trends & Projections availability. Current rates are approximately $0.65 to $1.00 per square Montana's housing market had a strong year in 2012, with every major foot per month. Given the nature of the depressed housing market and market across the state reporting an increase in activity as compared to continued population growth the apartment segment will continue to 2011. The Montana Association of Realtors ("MAR") received sales data see strong activity. from the eight largest associations in the state, and in all eight there Figure 17: Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income was an increase in the number of single-family homes sold compared to 2011. Occupied units paying rent 9,591 100.00% Overall, in the 8 major markets in Montana, 8,579 single-family homes Less than 15.0 percent 1,454 15.20% were sold in 2012 compared to 7,051 in 2011, a gain of 1,528 homes or 15.0 to 19.9 percent 1,136 11.80% 21.67 percent 20.0 to 24.9 percent 1,332 13.90% 25.0 to 29.9 percent 1,194 12.40% "It is very exciting to see the Montana housing market continue to 30.0 to 34.9 percent 941 9.80% improve," said MAR President Pam Wood. "Every major market in the 35.0 percent or more 3,534 36.80% state showed increased sales activity in 2012 when compared to the Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey; Wilidan, 2013 previous year, and that is very important as housing plays a major role in the overall economy." Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 19 The Gallatin Association of Realtors saw the largest increase in single- family home sales in 2012, with an uptick of 364 homes sold in 2012 compared to the previous year, for an increase of 33.18 percent The Northwest Association of Realtors was next with an increase of 307 homes (24.86 percent), followed by the Billings Association gain of 279 homes (15.96 percent). The average sales price of a home rose in six of the eight markets, the median sales price rose in seven of the eight markets and the average days a home was on the market fell in four of the eight major areas. Those figures do not include townhouses or condos, although six of the eight markets in the state reported an increase in the number of those sales as well. Record -low interest rates and an increase in consumer confidence played a key role in Montana's housing market improving in 2012. In relation to housing sales during the first quarter of 2013 there were 159 non -distressed sales in the first quarter of 2013. This compares to 112 in 2012 and 102 in 2011. Although the total number of sales is nearly the same as 2012, the fact that bank -owned sales are down 42 percent and non -distressed sales are up 42 percent is a significant indicator that the market continues to improve. Nearly 14 percent of housing units in Flathead County are vacant for seasonal use. Another 23 percent are renter occupied with about 56 percent of units occupied by owners. The remaining 6 percent of units are vacant for various reasons including those properties listed for rent, for sale, or those having been subject to foreclosure. Figure 18: Occupancy of Housing Units, Flathead County, 2010 73 housing units ■ Owner occupied ■ Renter occupied Vacant for seasonal use ■ Other vacancies Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Wilder, 2013. Building and electric permits for Flathead County were robust during the early part of the prior decade, but have declined precipitously since 2007. Single family construction declined nearly 85 percent during that time frame in Kalispell and outlying areas. According to City staff, single family construction over the past 18 months has begun to return with nearly double the permitted new housing units in 2012 as those of 2011. Housing Affordability in Flathead County Flathead County remains one of the most unaffordable real estate markets in Montana. Housing affordability as measured by the Housing Affordability Index has improved somewhat following the recent real Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 20 10/ estate downturn. Figure 19 outlines the housing affordability from 2007 to 2010. Figure 19: Housing Affordability Index, Flathead County 2007-2010 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010* 11 preliminary estimates using 2009 Income data. Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research; Willdan, 2013. Residential Development Opportunity in the Core Area Based on historic trends over the past ten years, adjusted to reflect the ongoing economic recovery, the City of Kalispell produced an average of 100 new housing units annually. Utilizing a conservative estimate and the baseline average annual housing production of 50 units (based on a 10-year average of 232 units), it is plausible to expect approximately 1,250 new homes may be constructed in Kalispell over the next 25 years. Figure 20: Average Annual Housing Unit Construction 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 280 195 480 375 350 320 185 100 90 75 100 Average Annual Units 232 Source: City of Kalispell; Willdan, 2013. The proposed housing would include a mix of apartments, Low -Income Housing Tax Credit units, and a minor component of condominium units targeted for the latter phase of redevelopment (after year 7 of Plan implementation). Based on the financial feasibility analysis detailed in the Annex to this report, it is possible to achieve a sufficient return on new construction investment if assuming market rate rental rates of at least $1.10 per square foot It is plausible to assume that residential construction in the Core Area will continue along current production rates in the near term with cautious developers achieving success when delivering units to satisfy pent up demand. Based on Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 21 these parameters, the Core Area Plan assumes that a series of small residential projects over a seven to ten year buildout horizon as detailed in the following table. Given the Core Area's size, opportunity for development and potential housing product types, we anticipate that the Core Area could expect to capture approximately eight to 14 percent of that total production, or 105 to 175 units over the 25 year life of the Westside TIF District In total, this program assumes that the Core Area would capture an average of four to seven units annually. Figure 21: Conceptual Redevelopment Alternatives — Residential Development Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Residential (units) Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Willdan, 2013. 0 25 75 0 40 80 0 - 20 0 105 175 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 22 IV. Retail Market Analysis This study examines key real estate market and economic variables (i.e., population growth, household income, consumer expenditure patterns, employment trends, etc.) to test the potential for retail development and/or redevelopment opportunities within the Core Area. The results of the demographic and economic analysis indicate there is little unmet retail demand within the Core Area and Kalispell. The opportunities to expand the Core Area's retail trade exist in the introduction of additional soft goods retailers and full service restaurants. Retailing and shopping habits have changed over the past decade. Primarily the change occurred due to a shift in lifestyles. In the 1980s and 1990s going to the mall was the dominant form of shopping. Today, nearly 70 percent of purchases that are made come from discount retailers. This trend has established Wal-Mart as the largest seller of women's ready-to-wear apparel. Returning to the streets of our local neighborhoods is replacing the mall experience. Today over 60 percent of consumers prefer to buy their shoes in a neighborhood store. Today's consumer enjoys having the opportunity to live, shop and work in their neighborhood. Main streets are becoming savvy and retailers are now able to compete with the mall on any level. The average consumer walks by storefronts at an average rate of seven seconds per storefront. Retailers understand that they have to make the most of this foot traffic and advertise their store through window and facade displays. Individual retailers are employing interesting window displays and unique merchandising techniques to capture shoppers' attention. Competition is growing and national tenants are now searching out locations on main streets. Presently, the Core Area's existing retail square footage is comprised of businesses that have limited synergy and cohesiveness. The expanse of the area, multitude of uses and lack of pedestrian or vehicular interconnection inhibits the future development of the Core Area. Core Area Site Characteristics The study area is generally defined as follows; Highway 2 on the north, Center Street on the south, Meridian Road on the west and Woodland Park Drive on the east. Although there is significant access to the Core Area via Highways 2 and 93, the Highways significantly impact development opportunities and the walkability of the Core Area. There is insufficient local access within the Core Area as several of the north/south connectors have been closed to accommodate railway traffic. Willdan surveyed local and regional stakeholders to analyze existing retail conditions. Survey interviews indicate that many of Kalispell's residents identify the Core Area as lacking sufficient parking, hampered by Highway 93 and not containing significant synergy amongst uses. Main Street, as Kalispell's primary downtown shopping district, Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 23 Wr competes with new retailers often opening stores in the northern portion of Kalispell, adjacent to existing large scale retail developments and new housing product. The northern Kalispell retail developments serve as the primary regional shopping district in the greater Flathead Valley area. The retail development is anchored not only by big -box retailers, but also by discount department stores, hotels, restaurants, and a multiplex movie theatre. Retailers that can appeal to the demographics of Main Street's primary trade and serve neighborhood -shopping needs, or create a unique specialty niche that draws shoppers to the district from beyond as an alternative to regional shopping centers, will most likely succeed as an alternative to the regional shopping centers of northern Kalispell. Retail Trade Areas The profile of the retail market within the Primary Trade Area shows that a great portion of the retail establishments are located within a 10 mile radius of the Core Area. The population of the City of Kalispell comprises 20 percent of the Trade Area's total population, but 53.4 percent of the County's retail businesses are in the 10 mile radius of the Core Area. These numbers show that Kalispell is a major source of retail activity in the Primary Trade Area. There are a variety of neighborhood business districts within close proximity to the Core Area including the intersection of Highways 2 and 35, Main Street (south of 18th Street), and downtown Kalispell. The regional shopping centers are located at the northern periphery of Kalispell. The Core Area is anchored by a number of large retailers and employers such as the Kalispell Center Mall, Smith's Foods, Albertsons Grocery, and Super One Grocery. For the purposes of this study, the market area was split into both primary and secondary trade areas. The primary trade area consists of those consumers who shop the Core Area district on a regular/weekly basis for most of their needs. This accounts for a majority of the retail expenditures in the Core Area. The study's primary trade area is defined as fifty (50) miles from the Kalispell Center Mall. The secondary trade area extends further north into Canada and to the west, east and south, up to one hundred (100) miles. Figure 22: Target -Anchored Shopping Center (Highway 93 North) Primary Trade Area The primary trade area is delineated by distance, the regional retail nodes to the north, northeast and south, area population and Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 24 demographics, and the flow of retail traffic in all directions. The primary trade area residents account for most of the sales of the convenience and neighborhood -oriented retailers and services located in the study area. The primary trade area generally accounts for between 50 percent and 65 percent of sales. However, more destination -oriented tenants, such as breweries, art galleries and restaurants, draw from not only the trade area, but also from beyond the defined trade boundary, as well as from the local business and tourist population. Secondary Trade Area The secondary trade area consists of tourists and those residents who live in the region surrounding the primary trade area who patronize retailers within the Core Area, but not as their primary source of shopping. The secondary trade area is defined by distance. This area has a current population estimate of approximately 141,500 persons, which is expected to increase slightly to approximately 149,000 persons, or 5.3 percent by the year 2017. Persons per household are currently 2.41. More households in the secondary trade area are owner -occupied (55.4 percent) than in the primary trade area, with the remaining 23.2 percent renter -occupied. The median household income level for the secondary trade area of $40,154 is 6 percent lower than is found in the primary trade area. The median age is 42.5 years. Retail Competition Overview The retail competition map (Figure 23) identifies the Primary Trade Area retail competition by type of development. The Core Area faces significant retail competition in nearly every category. In particular, the Evergreen and Northwest Kalispell region offer large format retail, goods and services not readily available in the Core Area. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 26 Figure 23: Kalispell Retail Competition Map glJ ,3 legend _j'r _ ° 3 sb ppmg 'yr swreenx ftsc.uf,.0 Yp '"d • r..xnne 'V • • • C .n Mttd'.aN:Se s N F'.'. i_ NpNlf lmyOrM4vrt ® H6ghOOrI,vOCCMc F'::eY • • Neian�almOES<rts negaw SNa�ingeenttt Miles s 0 0,5 r 1-5 z 2.5 ,.vbnese.m W. a atop Source: ESBI Business Analyst,, City of Kalispell; Wilder, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 26 F As part of this field evaluation, the project team conducted site visits to all major shopping areas in and just beyond the defined trade area. The core of retail in Kalispell is found either on Highway 93 near West Reserve Drive or at the intersection of Highways 2 and 35. Both of these retail areas offer several discount and big -box retail stores. In addition to the regional shopping centers, the Core Area competes more directly with neighborhood shopping districts. Figure 24 shows the retail gap for selected sectors in the City of Kalispell. "Supply (retail sales)" estimates sales to consumers by establishments. Sales to businesses are excluded. "Demand (retail potential)" estimates the expected amount spent by consumers at retail establishments. Supply and demand estimates are in current dollars. The "Leakage/Surplus Factor" presents a snapshot of retail opportunity. This is a measure of the relationship between supply and demand that ranges from +100 (total leakage) to -100 (total surplus). A positive value represents 'leakage' of retail opportunity outside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of retail sales, a market where customers are drawn in from outside the trade area. The Retail Gap represents the difference between Retail Potential and Retail Sales. ESRI uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to classify businesses by their primary type of economic activity. Retail establishments are classified into 27 industry groups in the Retail Trade sector, as well as four industry groups within the Food Services & Drinking Establishments subsector. Several industries show leakage, meaning that demand exceeds supply in Kalispell. These industries include: • Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores • Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores • Electronic Shopping & Mail -Order Houses • Vending Machine Operators • Direct Selling Establishments • Drinking Places - Alcoholic Entrepreneurs seeking to open businesses in these sectors can expect strong sales because the market demands more of those products than the market currently supplies. On the other hand, the majority of the retail sectors show a market surplus, meaning that businesses in Kalispell supply more products and services than are demanded by the local population. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 27 M Figure 24: Retail Gap Analysis - City of Kalispell Total Retail Trade 44-45 $167,662,188 $465,957,479-$298,295,291 -47.1 218 Total Food & Drink 722 $18,399,338 $31,373,987-$12,974,649 -26.1 32 Selected Industry Sectors Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 441 $33,015,495 $77,099,716 -$44,084,221 -40.0 21 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 442 $3,945,348 $20,034,592 -$16,089,244 -67.1 17 Electronics & Appliance Stores 4431 $5,340,867 $39,954,533 -$34,613,666 -76.4 13 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores 444 $5,998,451 $22,255.978 -$16,257,527 -57.5 13 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 4441 $4,932,106 $22,255,978 -$17,323,872 -63.7 13 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores 4442 $1,066,345 $0 $1,066,345 100.0 0 Food & Beverage Stores 445 $29,041,621 $68,033,296 438,991,675 -40.2 23 Health & Personal Care Stores 446,4461 $9,911,054 $14,897,839 -$4,986;785 -20.1 16 Clothing& Clothing Accessories Stores 448 $9.990,213 $21,491,362 -$11,501,149 -36.5 28 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores 451 $5.180,219 $29,630,265 -$24,450;046 -70.2 30 General Merchandise Stores 452 $32,637,167 $120,681.834 -$88,044,667 -57.4 7 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 453 $5,657,629 $18,884,029 -$13,226,400 -53.9 44 Florists 4531 $212,133 $1,380,676 -$1,168,543 -73.4 4 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores 4532 $1,782,795 $1,044,753 $738,042 26.1 5 Nonstore Retailers 454 $4,442,262 $3,155,377 $1,286,885 16.9 3 Electronic Shopping & Mail -Order Houses 4541 $2,418,490 $0 $2,418,490 100.0 0 Vending Machine Operators 4542 $117,545 $0 $117,545 100.0 0 Direct Selling Establishments 4543 $1,906,227 $3,155,377 -$1,249,150 -24.7 3 Food Services & Drinking Places 722 $18,399,338 $31,373,987 -$12,974,649 -26.1 32 Full -Service Restaurants 7221 $8,168,264 $9,202,167 -$1,033,903 -6.0 9 Limited -Service Eating Places 7222 $8,310,535 $20,152,463 -$11,841,928 -41.6 18 Special Food Services 7223 $880,705 $1,246,083 -$365,378 -17.2 3 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 7224 $1,039,834 $773,274 $266,560 14.7 2 Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Wilder, 2013 Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 28 It is important to note that the retail gap analysis does not reflect inflow spending from the visitor market, as evidenced by the volume and location of the Kalispell region's retail supply and continued development activity during the economic downtown. To illustrate the spending power of the visitor market, Willdan analyzed data reported by the US National Park Service, testing projections of visitation levels and per capita spending by major retail and entertainment categories. Assuming an average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent (based on 10- year historical trends), it is expected that the visitor market could grow from 2.1 million visitors (2010) to approximately 2.9 million visitors in 2022, or an increase of approximately 663,000 visitors. Associated incremental retail and entertainment spending will further support the strategy to revitalize the Core Area and attract new retailers. Based on spending patterns reported by the National Park Service (in 2010 dollars, held constant to illustrate a conservative case), new visitors to Glacier National Park could be expected to spend $149.4 million annually by 2022, or an increase of $37.2 million over 2010 retail spending. Assuming national chain quality annual sales productivity requirements of $300 per square foot, this spending translates to support for approximately 295,000 square feet of new retail space in the Kalispell region. Taking a similar perspective with the residential spending market, it is expected that nominal population and household income growth will also generate incremental demand for new or redeveloped retail and entertainment space. It is projected that Flathead County's households will grow from 39,000 households to 45,000 by 2022. Average household incomes are expected to increase from $42,800 to $60,000 generating $3.5 in incremental gross income in Flathead County by 2022. Based on US Consumer Expenditure Data reported by the Consumer Expenditure Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, September, 2012, approximately 35 percent of gross household income is expended on food at home (grocery), restaurants, entertainment, apparel, personal care, and other retail goods. Assuming a conservative capture rate of five percent of total available county -wide spending power and retail sales productivity rates of $300 per square foot, the Core Area could expect to attract approximately 205,200 square feet of new/redeveloped retail space. Based on these parameters, the conceptual redevelopment program includes three scenarios for retail development or redevelopment. The Status Quo scenario assumes no new retail development; the conservative scenario assumes that the Core Area will support 77,500 square feet of new retail (location unspecified). Scenario 3, the optimistic case, assumes that that Kalispell Center Mall will redevelop and expand and, along with other new retail businesses throughout the Core Area, will create approximately 117,500 of new retail space. Figure 25: Conceptual Redevelopment Alternatives — Retail Development Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods 0 62,500 92,500 Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) 0 15,000 25,000 Total Retail (sfl 0 77,500 117,500 Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Willdan, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 29 Figure 26: Incremental Residential Retail Spending Power & 10-Year Supportable Retail Development (2022) City of Kalispell Spending Flathead County Spending Gross Gross Incremental Core Area Incremental Core Area Household Retail Household Retail Sales/ Retail Capture Income (2022) Retail Sales/ sf Capture Rate Income (2022) sf Rate Retail Demand Assumptions 2012-2022 596,736,871 $300 10% 3,527,674,063 $300 5% Grass Flathead Spending Spending Kalispell County as % of Power by Gross Capture of Gross Spending Gross Capture of Household Retail Supportable New Retail Power by Retail Supportable New Retail Retail Categories Income /1 Category Retail (so Demands Category Retail Demand Food at home 10.0% 59,645,000 199,000 19,900 352,595,000 1,175,000 58,800 Food away from home 6.2% 37,149,000 124,000 12,400 219,611,000 732,000 36,600 Household furnishings and equipment 3.2% 18,943,000 63,000 6,300 111,986,000 373,000 18,700 Apparel and services 4.2% 25,189,000 84,000 8,400 148,909,000 496,000 24,800 Entertainment 4.9% 29,084,000 97,000 9,700 171,936,000 573,000 28,700 Personal care products and services 1.4% 8,219,000 27,000 2,700 48,588,000 162,000 8,100 Service Stations 2.0% 11,935,000 40,000 4,000 70,553,000 235,000 11,800 Other Retail Stores 3.0% 17,902,000 60,000 6,000 105,830,000 353,000 17,700 34.9% 208,066,D00 694,000 69 400 1,230,008,000 4,099,000 205,200 1/ Based on US Consumer Expenditure Survey Data by Average Household Income (averaged for Kalispell and Source: ESRI Business Analyst; Wildlan, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 30 M Figure 27: Food, Retail & Entertainment Demand from Glacier National Park Visitor Spending (Square Feet) Gross Annual Retail & Entertainment Demand Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 7 Year 9 Year 10 Total Retail Demand (st Productivity /sf 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Food & Beverage $300 72,600 74,400 76,300 78,200 80,100 82,100 84,200 86,300 88,400 90,700 Other Retail $300 115,700 118,600 121,500 124,600 127,700 130,900 134,100 137,500 140,900 144,400 Entertainment(Amusements $300 39,900 40,900 41,900 42,900 44,000 45,100 46,300 47,400 48,600 49,800 Groceries $300 8,000 8,200 8,400 8,600 8,800 9,000 9,300 9,500 9,700 10,000 236,200 242,100 248,100 254,300 260.600 267,100 273,900 280,700 287,600 294.900 Incremental (Net Newl Annual Retail & Entertainment Demand Sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Retail Demand (si) Productivity /st 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food & Beverage $300 1,800 3,600 5,400 7,400 9,300 11,300 13,400 15,500 17,600 19,800 Other Retail $300; 2,800 5,700 8,700 11,700 14,800 18,000 21,300 24,600 28,100 31,600 Entertainment/Amusements $300 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,100 6,200 7,300 8,500 9,700 10,900 Groceries $300` 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,200 Total 5,800 11,700 17,700 23,900 30,200 36,700 43,500 50,300 57,300 64,500 Source: US National Park Service; Wilder, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis 401 V. Office Market Analysis Willdan researched Loop Net and the Multiple Listing Service to identify the available office properties in the Core Area and downtown Kalispell. There are currently 16 available office units, accounting for nearly 20,000 square feet of office space. The type and variety of available space would lend itself to small professional office, medical, real estate and financial services. Given that available properties had quoted lease rates of $4.20 to $13.20 per square foot per year, the current office lease rates in the Core Area do not support the costs of new construction. Given the identified lease rates and number of available properties, the development of additional office space would not be supported by the market in the near term and is proposed as potential adaptive redevelopment and reuse of existing space (substitution of existing demand). Based on the financial feasibility test detailed in the Annex to this report, office renovation would require lease rates of between $12 to $15 per square foot and new office construction would require lease rates of $17 to $22 per square foot. The current economics of the office market suggest that small format, independent professional office or medical office could be an attractive market for a developer in a position to redevelop existing office space. Accordingly, the Core Area conceptual redevelopment program includes approximately 17,500 square feet of new or redeveloped office space over a 2S-year buildout timeframe (assumed for Scenario 2: Conservative and Scenario 3: Optimistic). Figure 28: Current Kalispell Office Market Lease Rate Trends Current Annual Lease Rates /1 $4.20 $13.20 Lease Rates Required for Office Renovation /2 $12.00 $15.00 Lease Rates Required for New Construction /3 $17.00 $22.00 1/ Based on office lease rates reported by loop net of $0.35 to $1.10 per square foot per month, April 2013. 2/ Based on interviews with local property developerslowners. 3/ Based on interviews with local property developers/owners. Source: LoopNet; Willdan, 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 32 Wr VI. Business Park/industrial Market Analysis To test the supply and demand for a new rail -served industrial park, the Flathead County Economic Development Authority (FCEDA) retained KLJ Associates to perform a market analysis and feasibility study as part of ongoing engineering planning underway. KLJ determined that based on recent trends, the potential is increasing for the industrial rail park to create jobs and support new industries especially as manufacturing and other rail -oriented industries continue to recover from the recession and expand operations. The report concluded that service -oriented professions continue to be the largest employers in the region. However, Plum Creek and Applied Materials are large scale lumber and manufacturing companies that lend credence that these industry types can thrive in the Valley. Table 4 of the KLJ report identifies the top 10 Associate of Applied Science (AAS) degrees and the top 5 Certificate of Applied Science (CAS) degrees from Flathead Valley Community College (FVCC) for year 2011-2012. Data indicates that degree earners such as Welding and Inspection Technology (19), Heavy Equipment Operator (17), Electrical Technology (9) Small Business Management (6), HVAC (5) and Cabinet and Furniture Technology (3) are graduates that can support manufacturing and industries associated with rail. Figure 3 of the KLJ report indicates that more than 50 percent of all AAS graduates and CAS graduates have a degree that could service manufacturing, agricultural/forestry, and rail -oriented industries. Should potential businesses want to relocate or start-up in the rail park, they would have a ready and available pool of human capital to meet and expand business needs. Table 9 of the KLJ report recreated here as Figure 29, indentifies three companies with a high likelihood of relocation or expansion, and four other companies with a medium likelihood of relocation or expansion. Construction and construction -related industries like lumber and landscaping dominate this list Figure 29: Leads for Rail Industrial Park Cenex Harvest States Agriculture / Fertilizer High HE Simpson Lumber High Northeast Drywall Construction / Drywall High Blackwell Enterprises Construction / Trusses Medium Fastenal Construction Medium Glacier Stone Landscaping Stone Medium Cold Front Cabins Housing Low Countryside Welding oil Tank Construction Low Source: KLJ Draft Industrial Rail Park Market Analysis; Wilidan, 2013 Key Recommendations • KLJ recommended that MWED and FCEDA should pursue industries such as Lumber companies, scrap steel, and other Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 33 grain elevators/agricultural uses. In addition, industries related to creating machinery and other precision instruments should be targeted for the rail park. KLJ also determined that emerging technologies such as electronics and pharmaceuticals and metallic ores/non- metallic minerals may be viable industries to locate within the park as long as they can prove a need for rail shipments. If they cannot prove a need for rail service, the business should not be allowed. • KLJ recommended that businesses that would utilize transload facilities are important to target because of their need to ship materials via truck and rail. Example industries that could utilize transload facilities are big box retailers, large good producers (recreational toys such as ATVs, boats, snowmobiles), and liquid/petroleum products. Creating a rail park with a transload operator will help stimulate rail freight movements for the Flathead County and thus improve economic development potential for the entire Flathead Valley. More importantly, the transload operator will market freight shipments to potential businesses as a viable and economical option. • For sale and for lease sites should be created to foster a mix of relocation or expansion options for potential businesses. While no 'one size fits all' financial model can be established in terms of the number of sale versus lease sites, FCEDA should reserve at Least 25 percent of the sites for each option. FCEDA should work with the City of Kalispell and BNSF Railway/WATCO Mission Mountain Railroad to create development agreements, deed restrictions or similar owner/lease agreements to foster rail -only industry development within the park Should a site become available that does not have access to rail siding, a potential non -rail oriented business could occupy the site. However, the site may provide rail -oriented business that may only require infrequent rail service (two or three times per year) the opportunity to conduct business without having to pay a premium for rail siding. • In addition, as the Valley continues to grow, some industries may only have a need for shipping rail without having to have direct access to rail siding on a daily, weekly or monthly schedule. • FCEDA should lease out transload operations to a qualified transloader that has previous experience loading and unloading rail cars as well as loading truck shipments onto rail and vice versa. A qualified transloader will improve efficiency at the park, thus improving relations with businesses in the park as well as businesses throughout the area. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 34 VII. Hotel and Hospitality Market Analysis While the industrial trade in Kalispell continues to wane, tourism has become a bigger part of the Kalispell economy. Tourists are coming to Montana for many reasons, including sightseeing outdoor recreation, and shopping. Kalispell is the gateway to Glacier National Park, which had 2.2 million visitors in 2010. Many of these visitors drive through or fly into Kalispell on their way to Glacier National Park In addition to recreation, Canadian shopping tourism is strong in Kalispell. Canadians make planned trips to Kalispell to take advantage of favorable exchange rates, no state sales taxes, and retail establishments like Target, that are unavailable in their country. The region's tourism activity generates a secondary retail market segment that further amplifies the primary countywide residential trade area of 90,000 residents. While this demand would also suggest support for new hotel construction, data reported by the Kalispell Convention and Visitors Bureau indicates that there are currently 100 hotel rooms currently under construction or in the pipeline and it is unclear whether additional hotel rooms could be supported until this inventory is delivered to the market and revenue per available room and occupancy rates stabilize. For these reasons, it is recommended that new hotel construction be considered as a mid- to long-term opportunity in the Core Area. According to the American Hotel and Lodging Association, new construction cannot be supported until revenue per available room reaches $180 and annual average hotel occupancy is at least 68 percent. Based on current hotel research data acquired by Willdan, the average annual occupancy rate across 19 active hotel properties is approximately 58 percent. Figure 30: Profile of Kalispell Area Hotel/Lodging Properties • Aero Inn • Homewood Suites Kalispell • Best Western Plus Flathead • Kalispell Grand Hotel Lake Inn & Suites • Blue & White Motel • Kalispell Hilltop Inn • Comfort Inn Big Sky Kalispell • La Ouinta Inns & Suites Kalispell • Econo Lodge Inn & Suites • Motel 6 Kalispell Kalispell • Glacier Peaks Inn • Red Lion Hotel Kalispell • Glacier Ridge Suites • Super 8 Kalispell Glacier Park Area • Hampton Inn Kalispell • The New Outlaw Hotel • Hilton Garden Inn Kalispell • Travelodge Kalispell Main Street • Holiday Inn Express & Suites • Vacationer Motel Kalispell Source: Willdan; 2013. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 35 Vill. Opportunities and Constraints: Implications for Core Area Plan In order for the City to implement its vision and remove the railroad tracks, it must develop a partnership and plan with each of the two existing businesses that still use rail service. These two businesses are very important to the City of Kalispell. If the City were unable to relocate these businesses, then the tracks would not be considered abandoned and could not be removed. The Flathead County Economic Development Agency (FCEDA) recently purchased property just east of the City limits that would be a prime candidate for the businesses' relocation. The acquisition of this industrial park has injected new enthusiasm for the Core Area Redevelopment Project as residents see the vision moving closer to reality. In addition, the City has secured Federal Brownfield remediation funds to assist with site remediation and demolition. The City plans to develop a Linear Park that would replace the railroad tracks and link Woodland Park from the east to the Great Northern Historical Trail on the west side of town. This park would improve the pedestrian and bike access throughout the Core Area thereby improving safety and mobility. It would also provide the public an opportune place to gather, socialize and enjoy the camaraderie within the neighborhood. The Linear Park would be one component to transforming the neighborhood into a lifestyle center of activity. Another component to building the community is the addition of more and varied dining and entertainment uses. The Downtown and Core Area has a limited number of dining and drinking establishments that are spread out such that they do not create a destination area for residents and tourists to visit. The addition of several establishments within a short proximity could generate positive energy to grow the entire district One example may be the creation of a microbrewery tasting room. Flathead Valley craft breweries produce over 40 varieties of beers. A tasting room would promote these local businesses while creating a gathering place for area residents and tourists. One of the biggest threats to the Core Area Revitalization is the growth away from the Core Area. Over the past eight years, big box retail has developed on the north side of town along the Highway 93 corridor. The scarce availability of vacant, developable land within the City combined with abundant land on the outskirts of the City has encouraged suburbanization. The cluster of retailers in this corridor Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 36 401 generates strong traffic patterns, which in turn attracts new retailers such as Cabella's. If the Core Area's current conditions continue unabated, this trend will further diminish the competitive position of Core Area retailers. The City has already lost the downtown movie theaters when the owner decided to build the Signature Theaters Stadium 14 Cinema. The City should continue to take proactive measures to maintain the existing retail base while strengthening and enhancing the Core Area retail mix. Strengths and Opportunities Based upon Willdan's observations and analysis, the Core Area Plan has significant strengths that will support implementation. These strengths include: • BNSF Railway/WATCO Mission Mountain Railroad is currently working with the City of Kalispell and FCEDA to design a rail - served industrial park that could accommodate the rail users in the Core Area • BNSF Railway/WATCO Mission Mountain Railroad has indicated their willingness to work with the community and rail users to identify scenarios where rail service is no longer necessary through the Core Area. • FCEDA has acquired a developable site to which rail -served business could relocate. • The City already has a Brownfield Program to assist with cleanup of sites requiring remediation. The City's history presents a unique identity to the Core Area. Active private investment in Kalispell retail/dining, small format office, and new infill housing is underway (i.e., $3.7 million in new construction/renovation for Brannigan's Pub, Depot Place, etc.). The City has a vibrant local art community evidenced throughout the Core Area and downtown. Woodland Park serves as a key terminus point on the east side of the proposed Linear Park. • The recently completed Depot Place housing project demonstrates that there is demand for higher density, affordable housing in the area. The public support for the project gives it a higher probability for success and makes it easier to implement. • The Kalispell Center Mall owner/operator has indicated positive support for the Core Area Plan's redevelopment goals and is a potential source of funding for components of the Linear Park plan and community gathering place (trail feature) on the mall property. The Plan highlights many of the constraints of the Core Area. These weaknesses include: The property north of the railroad tracks is underutilized because it is separated by the railroad track from the Downtown. Kalispell Core Area Market S Feasibility Analysis Page 37 0 The lack of investment/re-investment has created blight and neglected properties. Many streets within the Core Area are not pedestrian friendly due to a lack of sidewalks, curbs and gutters. Traffic Bow through the North -South connectors of the Core Area is hindered by the limited at -grade railroad crossings. • There is a perceived parking problem in the downtown area. Spaces close to retail shops are often occupied by employees and workers in the area. The two hour time limits imposed on these spaces to stop employee and all day parking inhibits customers who would like to leisurely walk and shop in the downtown area. • There is a lack of green space, trees and park settings in the Core Area. • The Core Area lacks restaurant and entertainment venues. The distance separating the current establishments and those in the downtown diffuses the vibrancy versus having the establishments together in a closer cluster. • The charm and parking efficiency of Kalispell's Main Street is diminished by State Highway activity. It is important that the City of Kalispell continue to lobby for State and Federal highway funding to finish the $32 million construction of the Highway 93 bypass to reclaim Main Street as a fully functioning, safe, pedestrian -oriented, historic shopping destination. The City of Kalispell has a great opportunity to move forward and address these weaknesses by: Relocating the rail -served businesses in order to replace the railroad tracks with a Linear Park • Developing a cohesive building and lot plan design that incorporates the character from downtown's historical architecture with a modern appeal. • Enhancing streetscapes by adding sidewalks with gutters and curbs, widening existing sidewalks to accommodate patio dining and improve pedestrian traffic, incorporate angled parking to increase the amount of available spaces, and upgrading lighting to improve aesthetics and promote safety. • Improve city appearances by creating incentives to reinvest in neglected property, cleaning up alley ways and overgrown vegetation, enforcing city ordinances on abandoned vehicles and community decay, and renovating the East Side Rail Bridge to be a symbolic gateway into the Downtown area. • Encourage development to create a cohesive neighborhood with a vibrant atmosphere. The addition of the Linear Park, high -density housing, and nightlife and entertainment establishments would transform the neighborhood into a desirable lifestyle center. & Feasibility Analysis Page 38 Constraints/Threats The threats to the vision that the City has laid out for the Core Area are: The cost may be prohibitively expensive for the City to attain a suitable return on investment. • The business owners, FCEDA, and the City of Kalispell must collaborate on the relocation of the rail -served businesses. The relocation requires development time for site planning, construction, and financing. • If the railroad tracks are not removed, the City would not be able to fully implement its vision. • Grant money from the Brownfield Program must be expended within the funding period. • If the Flathead Valley Electric Cooperative cannot move the substation near Woodland Park, the Linear Park plans may need alteration. Legal restrictions may inhibit development. One example is the deed restrictions on the downtown theaters that prohibit their use to show movies. Another example is the limited number of liquor licenses. In 1947, the state enacted a quota system that limits the number of issued licenses based on local population. These restrictions have raised the value of liquor licenses on the secondary market into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. • The development of big box retail on the north side of the City along Highway 93 is attracting businesses away from the Core Area. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 39 IX. Core Area Economic Development Recommendations The City of Kalispell is actively engaged in transforming the Core Area into a destination and hub of activity for its residents, employees, and tourists. Willdan recommends that the Core Area's retail strategy should not be to compete with northern Kalispell retail developments but instead to create a destination that offers something unique and outside that found in the traditional power center developments. There is opportunity for the current Core Area merchants to create an alternative to the existing regional shopping centers. Kalispell's Core Area is presently a viable shopping and dining destination with significant potential to increase its retail activity through adaptive reuse and redevelopment of existing space by capturing a greater share of tourism spending generated by business travelers and visitors to Glacier National Park. We provide a range of potential redevelopment program scenarios and the interdependent variables impacting the conditions of feasibility for each alternative in the following discussion. The conceptual redevelopment program targets identified take into account full buildout of the Core Area over the 25-year life Tax Increment Financing District. Figure 31: Downtown Kalispell Scenario 1 — Status Quo (Maintain Rail in Core Area) This scenario was tested to identify the development potential of the Core Area should rail service continue to operate. Acknowledging the previously identified impediments of continued rail service to development of the Core Area, there still is opportunity for development. To mitigate the impacts of continued rail service, Scenario 1 assumes that the City will create a cohesive marketing and development strategy focused on infill development and retention of existing users. The objective of this scenario would be focused development and retention of existing retail businesses in the Core Area. This scenario assumes that the rail -served industrial park is not constructed and the rail is not relocated from the Core Area to the new Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 40 park. Consequently, the Core Area Linear Park Plan is not implemented and redevelopment and reuse is challenged by conditions of access, blight, and other factors. This scenario assumes that the Kalispell West Side TIF District generates only the baseline incremental tax revenues of approximately $407,838 annually over the life of the TIF. Scenario 2 — Conservative (Limited Expansion of Core Area Retail) The Enhanced Core Area Retail will result in adding a slight amount of retail to fill in the void areas, and will improve the existing conditions within the Core Area. The void areas are retail tenants that are underrepresented. They are determined by calculating expenditures, existing retail square footage and future sales projections. The Enhanced Core Area assumes the following: • Rail service through the Core Area will be discontinued. • A Linear Park has been developed and implemented to capture the former rail line right of way. • Street connections previously closed by the rail line have been reopened. • Street and sidewalk widths will remain unchanged and that pedestrian traffic, limited vehicular traffic will continue to co- exist • Parking will continue to be limited to city parking lots, parallel parking on Highway 93 or on adjacent side streets. • An effective management structure will be established to coordinate overall leasing, marketing, design, merchandising, parking and maintenance of the Core Area. Existing retailers will improve their merchandising, marketing and management strategies. Many of the Core Area's businesses could generally increase sales and new commercial businesses could be supported including men's and women's apparel, brewery tasting rooms, bakeries and restaurants. This assumes that the City would implement the removal of the railroad tracks, undertake extensive streetscape improvements and the existing vehicular circulation patterns would remain in effect along Main Street. This model also assumes that the overall Core Area businesses organize to improve their merchandising techniques and develop an effective marketing campaign focusing on the tourist and visitor market and to promote more regular visits from persons outside of the primary trade area. Further business development projects that the Core Area could benefit from include the expansion of its restaurants and apparel categories. By expanding these two categories, the Core Area could eventually be the primary destination for visitors to Kalispell and significantly expand its primary trade area. Additional pedestrian traffic could increase existing business sales with appropriate management and marketing. This model assumes that the same enhancements of removal of the railroad tracks, extensive Kalispell Care Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 41 streetscape improvements and maintaining the existing vehicular patterns along Main Street would be implemented. Further, this assumes the City would be able to enhance its current cultural entertainment programming in the Core Area. Scenario 3 — Optimistic (Major Expansion of Core Area Retail) Assuming the rail is removed and the Core Area Linear Park Plan is implemented, additional retail expansion is expected to occur. The needed additional improvements include: The development of a major new cultural/entertainment- attraction such as a lifestyle center or regional brewery tasting room. • The establishment of a new Flathead County Library Significant new family -focused attractions that create a welcoming environment for families with young children, such as play structures, public art, and small-scale recreational features such as a playground water feature. Limited retail expansion could be achieved by expanding a few segments of the retail district, to encourage people outside of the trade area to come to the Core Area as a destination for those specific segments. The most promising segments identified for additional expansion include apparel and restaurant businesses. By expanding these two categories, the Core Area could eventually be the primary destination for visitors and significantly expand its primary trade area. Additional pedestrian traffic could increase the visibility and sales of existing business. This scenario was evaluated to identify the upper limit of the Core Area's retail and entertainment development potential. Accounting for existing vacancies and based on the retail gap data reported by ESRI Business Analyst, the district can support up to 115,000 square feet of new retail business development over 25 years, assuming the following major improvements: Removal of the railroad tracks, extensive streetscape improvements and maintaining the existing vehicular patterns along Main Street The provision of additional parking (on -street, structured or angled). The widening of pedestrian walkways and the inclusion of additional public open space within the Core Area. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 42 Figure 32: Proposed Core Area Redevelopment Willdan forecasts that the improvements outlined in this model could significantly expand the Core Area's primary trade area by attracting both new unique retailing concepts and shoppers from much of the greater Flathead Valley region. Long -Term Redevelopment Potential Assuming the enhancements outlined above in Scenarios 2 and 3 are implemented, coupled with additional improvements, major retail expansion could occur. This model is designed to strengthen the existing retail offered and to expand the variety, and thus the appeal of the Core Area to a wider market, without losing its existing appeal and charm. Additional off-street and angled parking along with improved pedestrian access throughout the Core Area will enhance consumer appeal, increase accessibility and therefore help sales potential. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Rationale The rationale for the recommended expansion alternatives within the Core Area is presented below: The addition of targeted retail, combined with the re -tenanting of the existing retail, will create a more balanced mix, as well as strengthen the family appeal of the street to attract the tourist, business and secondary trade area population. The use of select national tenants will increase the vitality and credibility (name recognition) of the retail mix to strengthen the appeal of the street to visitors and tourists, as well as those living in the secondary trade area and beyond the defined trade areas. While the residential demographics of the primary trade area offer a stable residential base of over 90,000 persons, the median household income and ratio of rental property reflects the demographic trends of regional downtowns like that of Kalispell. Additionally, retail and restaurants have added sales potential in the area, due to both the existing trade area population and tourists drawn to the area that are presently underserved by the existing stock of commercial enterprises. A healthy mix of national, regional and independent tenants is needed to maintain an energetic retail district. National tenants add stability to a shopping district and give the consumer the perception that they can find a selection of standard items. Local retailers add the unique and eclectic element to a retail street that malls cannot offer. A successful mix between the two tenant types develops unique retail with the convenience of name brand tenants together in a single area. Recommended Retail Recruitment Strategies Leasing and Management One of the most important elements in the success of any commercial development or redevelopment effort is strategy for leasing and management of the area. Just as a successful shopping mall is leased with a targeted tenant mix to maximize sales for all tenants, the leasing of an urban commercial district must follow a similar lead. The unique combination and mix of a successfully leased shopping district will assure its ongoing vitality. The challenge of managing and leasing a shopping district such as the Core Area is complex and diverse. Multiple landlords, some absentee, make implementing consistent street management or complementary leasing efforts difficult Successful shopping districts, however, are typically well organized in their efforts to promote, market and attract desirable tenants. It is most important that the businesses throughout the Core Area be organized in a tight -fitting group with consistent and realistic goals. Well -compensated and qualified individuals should direct such an organization, much as a successful mall is leased and managed. The manner of financing such activities is an important part of assuring joint efforts to this goal. The existing Business Improvement District (BID) can be an effective tool for this purpose. Phasing and Action Items As a means of improving the vitality of the Kalispell Core Area, the following action items are recommended. Such improvements will aid in efforts to attract and preserve quality retailers and restaurants in Kalispell's downtown. Near -Term (3-4 months) • Improve merchandising efforts by existing Core Area retailers and restaurants to enhance visual merchandising of their product lines and to promote cross shopping among businesses. Such efforts should include improved storefront design, window display, lighting, inventory control and choice, among others. Development of a management group and appropriate funding to assure clean and attractive streetscapes, open spaces, and storefronts. • A review of existing wayfinding and signage directing vehicles to the parking surrounding the Core Area and downtown is encouraged. Mid -Range (6-9 months) The enforcement of short-term parking (1 to 2 hours) in appropriate areas within the Core Area and its side streets to allow vehicular traffic and to encourage turnover of prime parking spaces. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 44 The development and implementation of an overall marketing and advertising campaign designed to expand the trade area and overall sales. • The organization of an effective tenant recruitment program to attract targeted retailers and restaurants to the study area. Include a common800-phone number and active participation in the International Council of Shopping Centers and other trade group activities. • The installation of permanent directories to be located downtown to direct pedestrians and shoppers to the Core Area and various shops and restaurants. • The creation of an ongoing assemblage of the inventory of all leasable commercial space (occupied, vacant, and planned) in the study area with appropriate data including square footage, lease rates, lease terminations, footprints, etc. This will facilitate the efficient flow of information to existing and prospective tenants, brokers, landlords and investors. • The creation and design of marketing materials, including a brochure for leasing and marketing purposes, to attract potential retailers and restaurants. • The continuation and expansion of study area programming and promotional activities (i.e., seasonal activities, Holiday festivals) to provide additional incentives for shoppers to come to the Core Area's shopping, dining, and entertainment enterprises. Long -Range (22 months) • Expand existing BID or create new BID for Core Area • Plan for ongoing routine repair and updating of the public realm. • Finalize planning, site design and layout for Linear Park Identify State and Federal funding to complete the $32 million construction of the Highway 93 by-pass and reconfigure angled parking on Main Street Figure 33: Current Conditions: Kalispell Center Mall Parking Lot Conclusions Willdan's analysis of the current Core Area's real estate and market conditions indicate that there is unmet demand for retail and Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 45 restaurant uses. The Core Area's unique combination of holding the county seat, government employment center, residential and visitor customer base provides a stable economic marketplace for expansion. The Core Area has the potential to achieve higher market capture rates by implementation of the Plan's key objectives of: Removing the railroad tracks that bisects the Project Area and replace the tracks with a Linear Park. X Improving and upgrading existing properties to remove the blighted areas within the Core Area. Developing a compatible mix of commercial retail, neighborhood services, residential housing and public areas that meets the needs of residents and fosters a greater sense of community. In turn, the proposed redevelopment will strengthen the local economy by increasing the local tax base, attracting new residents and businesses, creating new jobs, and increasing tourism. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 46 X. Kalispell Linear Park Conceptual Plan Introduction One of the primary objectives of the Kalispell Core Area Plan is to formulate a funding and implementation strategy for installation of the Kalispell Linear Park ("KLP"). The City of Kalispell's overarching vision is to further the revitalization of the Core Area by removing the existing live freight rail line that bisects the town and replace the tracks with a Linear Park, attracting private investment to upgrading infrastructure, remove blight, and achieve a diversified mix of infill activity through new construction and adaptive reuse/redevelopment of commercial, retail, residential, neighborhood services, and community gathering areas, and other public amenities. Willdan provides a summary of the high-level planning parameters associated with the Linear Park's layout and proposed programming elements, as well as the underlying capital and operating assumptions that are the foundation of the park's implementation strategy. Linear Park Layout and Programming Based on input from City of Kalispell staff, the Kalispell Core Area Steering Committee, and other community stakeholders, there is broad public support for the removal of the existing freight rail line and the installation of a new Linear Park in Kalispell. The removal of the active rail line not only provides new commercial and residential redevelopment opportunities, but also the ability to reconnect Kalispell's street grid to create a fully functioning, pedestrian -oriented Main Street community retail destination. Upon relocation of the rail line, the City of Kalispell is opening opportunities for private land owners and businesses to strategically reposition property located the downtown core for redevelopment and reuse. The City s role is to create the optimal conditions for private investment through the following key action steps: • attract the maximum private investment and development activity with a minimum level of public funding/support • upgrade basic public infrastructure to provide optimal conditions for development/redevelopment activity (sidewalks, street lights) improve transportation flow through new street crossings previously blocked by rail activity, better connecting drivers with employment and commercial activity centers • safely conned pedestrians to active and passive recreational amenities by investing in new trail heads at key locations. After more than 20 years of public debate, the City's long-term investment in the Kalispell Core Area planning initiative is now taking the next step in moving towards the active implementation phase of the downtown rail -served business relocation by the BNSF Railway/WATCO Mission Mountain Railroad. The possible subsequent implementation of the Linear Park plan is strategically structured to, eliminate blight, catalyze private investment in the downtown Core Area, and achieve substantial enhancement in the community's amenities. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 47 The following provides a high-level overview of current proposed layout and programming targets for the KLP: Key Regional Trail Connection Points • North & East Connection: Create a contiguous linear connection via BNSN Railway Highway 2 overpass (the new "Kalispell Gateway Bridge") between Woodland Park (at the east end of study area) and Lawrence Park (in the NE quadrant of city). West Connection: Connect the KLP to the existing Meridian Trail Head via a new trail head at West Sth Avenue WN (connecting hikers B miles out to Kila trail and 4 miles up to North Reserve). South Connection: Connect hikers 11 miles south to Somers/Flathead Lake). Proposed Linear Park Programming "Bump out" Nodes • Depot Park: Locomotive climbing equipment at Depot Park: The City of Kalispell and FCEDA have begun discussions with BNSF Railway regarding the possibility of donating an out of service locomotive for public park use. This question needs to be further explored with BNSF Railway/WATCO Mission Mountain Railroad and others involved in the rail relocation initiative. • Mall Clock Tower Pedestrian Plaza: potential for a developer - funded and constructed open air farmer's market and creation of a focal gathering "third place" on privately -held Kalispell Center Mall property (with potential for capital investment and ongoing operating support from Mall owner/operator). Senior Outdoor Fitness Park: proposed at Meridian Road and Appleway Trail; this facility could be a small scale facility (new or existing adaptive reuse structure) with outdoor exercise equipment, and portable vending carts. • Flathead Electric Co -Op Site Comfort Station: the current Flathead Electric Co -Op site is underutilized and is strategically located at a potential trail connection point to Woodland Park (and - long-term, to the proposed outdoor amphitheater site). It is recommended that the City of Kalispell partner with the FEC to redevelop the site to a low-cost/low-intensity comfort station and trail head. This could be accomplished with minimal capital investment through a land swap, long-term lease, or shared -use agreement It is envisioned that the comfort station would include the following amenities: • trail head parking lot with city of Kalispell -branded directional signage (potentially shared parking with FEC) • Restrooms/healthy snack vending machines Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 48 Solid waste receptacles (potentially to be included in the Linear Park's new recycling program) Street Extensions/ Railroad Crossing Conversions To maximize the impact of regional trailhead reconnection points, the Willdan team strongly recommends that the Kalispell Linear Plan include funding to achieve the installation of at -grade pedestrian crossings and/or street reconnections key intersections where the streets cross the railroad, as appropriate: Street Extensions / Railroad Crossing Conversions (requires removal of tracks and new construction to reconnect street grid): • S's Avenue EN • 6th Avenue WN • 7th Avenue WN • Wh Avenue WN Based on discussions with city staff, it is expected that the street extension costs would be substantial (approximately $2.4 million). These costs are reflected in the Core Area funding strategy in the following section. To the extent possible, street extension costs would mitigated by retrofitting existing rail crossing equipment and power lines for vehicular/pedestrian crossing use.. Connection to the City of Kalispell Parks and Recreation Network The City of Kalispell Department of Parks and Recreation currently maintains approximately 406 acres of parkland, including 138 acres dedicated for the Kalispell Youth Athletic Complex. The parkland inventory includes 321 acres of active parkland and 73 acres of natural open space. Kalispell also owns 12 acres of undeveloped land. The City maintains several beautification areas, including roadway greens and annual plantings, via its Parks Department The Kalispell Core Area Linear Park Plan offers the potential reconnection of downtown to several trail heads with connections to nearby neighborhoods and vehicle parking. The Linear Park would connect nearly the entire length of the city, providing approximately two (2) miles in paved surfaces, opportunities for environmental and recreational programming, and the installation of climbing equipment at Depot Park, enhancing the cultural heritage of Kalispell's railroad history. Linear Park Capital Cost Assumptions There are three distinct capital components to the Kalispell Linear Park Plan: • Removal of the active rail freight line • Installation of the Linear Park trail/street reconnections • Adaptive reuse and new construction of facilities and equipment related to programmed park nodes Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 49 r Rail Line Removal The cost estimates to remove the active rail line is still pending further input from BNSF Railway/WATCO Mission Mountain Railroad, and other stakeholders; therefore this cost estimate is subject to change pending refinement of the Linear Park plan concept. Linear Park Trail Based on Willdan's site visits and interviews with city staff (Planning, Community & Economic Development, Public Works, and Parks and Recreation departments), the installation of the Kalispell Linear Park trail is expected to be a low impact construction project. From a utilities perspective, the city's existing grid of power, water, wastewater, and roads are in a state of good repair with sufficient capacity to serve the proposed Linear Park plan's trail/road connections and minimal active programming alternatives. The primary capital costs appear to be associated with the street extensions and the installation of street lights, curb cuts, sidewalks, and other basic vehicle and pedestrian -oriented infrastructure upgrades. Summary of Construction Costs Construction cost estimates are provided in the preliminary implementation strategy (see Figure 34: Summary of Linear Park Development Costs and Phasing Recommendations and in the detailed calculations and assumptions located in the annex to this report). It is expected that the Linear Park design and construction will be initiated concurrently with the latter phases of the FCEDA Rail Served Industrial Park construction and associated business relocation. It is anticipated that the Linear Park will be implemented in phases, based on availability of funding as follows (see Figure 34: Summary of Linear Park Development Costs and Phasing Recommendations for detail): • Phase 1: Assessment 0-3 Months • Phase II: Assessment & Cleanup Plan 3-6 Months • Phase III: Remediation Plan 6-12 Months • Phase IV: Cleanup 12-24 Months • Phase V: Park Design & Planning tbd • Phase V: Business Relocation tbd • Phase VI: Park Construction tbd According to current estimates of park costs and available funding sources, it appears that the installation of the Linear Park is financially feasible, as discussed in the following implementation section of this report. Nine percent of total budget for FY 2014 is planned for reserves (future maintenance). The Parks & Recreation Department currently holds $280,000 in cash reserves (14.3 percent reserve account). It is feasible to explore utilizing the reserve fund to pay for small shortfalls projected in the early years of development. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 50 Figure 34: Summary of Linear Park Development Costs and Phasing Recommendations Private/ Non- Other Grant Profit Fundina City of Kalisoell Total Cost # 1 Linear Park Land/Easement Acquisition $ $- $5,000 $5,000 # 2 Linear Park Environmental Remediation $- $55,000 $- $55,000 # 3 BNSF Track Removal $- $- $- $- # 4 Park Master Plan $- $- $20,000 $20,000 5 Installation of Shared Use Trail L $ $1,423,812 $1,423,812 Subtotal $- $55,000 $1,448,812 $1,503,812 Mid -Term: Years 4-6 6 Regional Trailhead Connection Points: $30,000 $- $30,000 $60,000 7 Kalispell Gateway Bridge $- $112,500 $- $112,500 8 KLP Trail Feature - Depot Park $175,000 $- $25,000 $200,000 9 KLP Trail Feature - Appleway Trail Senior Outdoor Fitness Park $61,600 $- $2,500 $64,100 10 KLP Trail Feature - Flathead Electric Cc -Op Park $15,000 $55,000 $14,000 $84,000 11 Pedestrian Crossing Upgrades (Railroad Conversions) : L $- $1,303,941 $1,303,941 Subtotal $281,600 $167,500 $1,375,441 $1,824,541 Long -Term: Years 7-10 12 Street Extensions (Railroad Conversions) : $- $ $1,074,001 $1,074,001 13 KLP Trail Feature - Kalispell Center Mall Clock Tower Plaza $- $- $- $- 14 Woodland Park Amphitheater $- $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 15 Health, Wellness, Sustainability Programming L S- L Subtotal $ $25,000 $1,099,001 $1,124,001 6% 6% 88% 100% Source, City of Kalispell; Willdan, 2013 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 51 Linear Park Operating Cost Assumptions Based on the current Kalispell Linear Park Plan concept noted in rough map graphics provided in this memorandum, the length of the park as drawn is 17,221 feet or 3.26 miles. Other potential operating impacts likely to be to Public Works Department to expand solid waste collection points along trail and/or at programmed nodes (especially if recycling program is expanded in City of Kalispell). Note that operating cost estimates for the programmed elements of the Linear Park are illustrative. Figure 35: Kalispell Linear Park Annual Operating Cost Estimates Length (feet) 17,200 Width (feet) 60 total area (sq. ft.) 1,032,000 sq. fVacre 45,560 Total Linear Park Acres 23 Tier 1 Park Maintenance cost/acre 1,200 Annual Maintenance Cost: $27,182 Source: City of Kalispell Department of Parks & Recreation; Willdan, 2013 The Kalispell Department of Parks & Recreation supports implementation of the Linear Park; the scale and intensity of uses can be programmed as part of typical expected growth for parks budget (combined with reserves); expected annual operating costs the operating costs for shared use trail and features are within a range that can be managed and maintained. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 52 XI.Core Area Financial Feasibility & Implementation Plan To initiate the implementation planning for the proposed Kalispell Core Area Plan --- the Kalispell Linear Park - the Willdan Team conducted work sessions with City of Kalispell staff to collect preliminary data regarding the individual action steps, cost estimates, and potential funding sources. Table 12 in Annex A: Linear Park Implementation Strategy: Sources & Uses of Funding provides a summary snapshot of these actions steps. Based on a detailed review of the relationship between costs, revenues and grant funding sources, and proposed phasing, the Core Area plan is financial feasible. Summary of Key Findings • Implementation of the Core Area Plan is vital to the future stability of the City of Kalispell's tax base. • The capital costs required to construct the Linear Park are supported by a combination of grant funding, incremental real property tax revenues, and TIF funding. • Other funding sources will be pursued and it's expected that these would adequately address any projected shortfalls (up to $1.1 million in Year 7 of the most conservative case (Scenario 1: Status Quo), assuming 1O0% of the street extension improvements are funded by the TIF. See Figure 39: Core Area Grant Funding Resource Strategy for a detailed listing of grant funding targets). • Assuming conservative development activity that would result from implementation of the Linear Park Plan as detailed by the market analysis findings, the quantifiable public return on investment is positive. It is expected that the incremental real property values would reach between $71,000 and $133,000 per year at full buildout of the conservative and optimistic scenarios, respectively. • The 25-year cumulative cash flows of anticipated development costs and incremental tax revenues flowing to the West Side TIT are estimated to be between $5.75 million and $7.91 million indicating that investment in the Core Area Plan will yield sufficient incremental tax revenues to the City of Kalispell. Figure 36: Core Area Financial Feasibility Analysis - Summary Results Cumulative Values (25 Years- Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Scenario 3: $Millions) Status Quo Conservative Optimistic Current TIF Fund Reserves $2.56 $2.56 $2.56 Incremental TIF Revenues (Life of TIF) $9.79 $9.79 $9.79 Real Property Tax Revenues: New Construction/Redevelopment $- $1.29 $2.16 Rail Served Industrial Park Costs 1 / $(2.68) $(2.68) $(2.68) Core Area Linear Park Development Costs Im 3.92 3.92 TIF Funds Remaining $5.75 $7.04 $7.91 Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Willdan, 2013 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 63 Figure 37: Core Area Plan Real Property Tax Revenue Assumptions -Incremental Taxes Per Square Foot from Similar Redevelopment Activity Before Renovation After Renovation After Renovation Business Property Type/Description Total Size (sf or units) Taxable Value - Land Taxable Value - Building Taxable Value - Land Taxable Value - Building Incremental Assessed Value (Land + Building) Total Incremental Taxes PSF After Renovation Sykes Supermarket/ Restaurant/Apt commercial - multifamily imp 3,466 695 723 1 1,883 4,963 1 3,108 0.90 Sykes Supermarket/ Restaurant/Apt mixed use- retail, storage & a is 27,540 2,409 2,814 52.521 47,298 1.72 Sykes Supermarket/ Restaurant/Apt restaurant 7,466 2,409 4,523 2,738 8,042 7,418 0.99 Sykes Supermarket/ RestaurantlAt retail 2,700 2,409 1,652 2,738 2.239 1,256 0.47 Appleway Trail Apts a is 71,320 10,665 83,733 73,068 1.02 Bmnni an'sPub/Restaurant/1 restaurant/bar 13,000 7,243 5,330 1,913 AtoZ /2 retail 7,540 7,414 8,853 9,747 10,120 1,812 0.24 Depot Place Apts apts 35,607 6,281 15,681 9,400 0.26 Kalispell Center Mall/3 retail/hotel 297,696 103,023 231.119 1 103,023 231,119 256,192 Assumed Averages for TIF incremental Taxes Calculations psi Retail Development $0.26 Office Development $0.24 Apartments - For Lease $0.98 Low -Income Housing Tau Credit Units $0.90 Condominium $1.02 1/ Completed remodel value has not been picked up for 2013 yet. Renovation not complete as of 1/1/13. Full renovation value will be added for 2014 tax year. 2/ value only at 50% complete construction for 2013. This project has also applied for a property tax exemption. 3/ completed remodel value for 2013 still pending review Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 34 Figure 38: Fiscal Benefits at Buildout - Summary of Scenarios Redevelopment Program Retail Development (sa Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) Subtotal Office Development (sj Residential Development (units) Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Subtotal Total Incremental Value/Real Property Taxes Scenario 1: Status Quo Scenario 2: conservative Growth Average Incremental Incremental Real Incremental Real Incremental Real Real Property Development Taxable Property Development Taxable Property Development Taxable Property Tex Values/sf Program Value Taxes Program (a Value Taxes Program Value Taxes $0.26 - $- $- 62,500 $16,015 $10,998 92,500 $23,702 $16,276 $0.26 - $- $- 15,000 $3.844 $2,639 25,000 $6406 $4399 - $- $- 77,500 $19,858 $13,637 117,500 $30,108 $20,675 $0.24 - $- $- 17,500 $4,206 $2,888 17,500 $4,206 $2,888 $0.98 - $- $- 52,500 $51,222 $35,175 78,750 $76,833 $52,763 $0.90 - $- $- 32,000 $28,695 $19,705 64,000 $57,389 $39,411 $1.02 - $- $- - $- $- 25,000 $25 613 $17 589 $- $- 84,500 $79,917 $54,881 167.750 $159836 $109762 $- $- 179,500 $103 981 $71 406 302,750 $194,149 $133.326 Assumptions: 2013 Flathead County Millage Rate = 0.68672 Source, Kalispell Core Area Plan: Wilidan, 2013, Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 55 n Figure 39: Core Area Grant Funding Resource Strategy Funding Grant Program Due Date Grant Match Proposed Use of Funds/Project Phase Expected Data of Notification Source Amount Regwired US DOT TIGER V 06/03/13 $8.7 million 40% Construction of mil and road improvements at September 2013 KalispelVFCEDA Rail Park US EDA Public Works 09/13/13 Avg $1 MM + Infrastructure Within 25 days of funding cycle deadline Montana Community Not stated $20,000 $1 local cash to Plans for the adaptive re -use and Not stated Department of Development Block $3 CDBG funds redevelopment of vacant Industrial areas, Commerce Grant including "brownfield" areas where reuse may be complicated due to the presence (or potential presence) of a hazardous substance, pollutant or contaminant, and any subsequent studies or plans for remediation required Montana Community $25,000 per 1:1 May be used for construction of infrastructure Department of Development Block job created, at the Rail Park pending commitment on job Commerce Grant —Economic max $400,000 creation Development Montana Big Sky Trust Fund Rolling $25,000 1:1 Planning Within three months of application Department of Commerce Montana DNRC Reclamation & May 15, $50,000 Yes, no Planning, environmental site assessments September of that year Development minimum and writing grant application —perhaps for Odd Years mils to trails phase. And?? and 09/15/13 Montana Reclamation & May 15, $300,000+ Yes, no Environmental clean-up, particularly along the Following Legislative Session Development minimum rail line in preparation for building trail DNRC Grants Program Even Years Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 56 �-r Funding Grant Program Due Date Grant Match Proposed Use of Funds/Project Phase Expected Date of Notification Source Amount Regwired Montana Treasure State May of Even $750,000 1:1 Construction of infrastructure. "*Unlikely that Following Legislative Session Department of Endowment Years maximum Kalispell would be funded b/c charging below Commerce Program target rate. US HUD HOPE VI Main 07/22/13 $500.000 5% Grants to small communities to assist in the Anticipated mid -Oct 2013 Street renovation of an historic or traditional central business district or "Main Street' area by replacing unused commercial space in buildings with affordable housing units. US EPA Brownfields Expected Nov $200,000 None Conduct environmental site assessments in Spring 2014 Assessment 2013 Kalispell for hazardous substance or petroleum. National Our Town January $25,000 1:1 Planning: creative asset mapping, cultural July annually Endowment for annually district planning, development of master the Arts $50,000 Non-federal plans or community -wide strategies for public art, creative industry/hub development. $75,000 Cash and/or Design: of cultural facilities (adaptive reuse), $100,000 or In -kind community engagement activities, predevelopment, design fees. $200,000 Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 67 Funding Grant Program Due Date Grant Match Proposed Use of Funds/Project Phase Expected Date of Notification Source Amount Required Wells Fargo and Environmental December $25,000 — 1:1 cash and/or Support community -based conservation Approximately following April the National Solutions for $100,000 in -kind projects that protect & restore local Fish & Wildlife Communities habitats/natural areas, enhance water quality, Foundation promote urban forestry, educate &train community leaders on sustainable practices, promote related jab creation/training, & engage diverse partners & volunteers. HUD Choice May annually $500,000 Minimum of 5% support development of comprehensive Neighborhoods of project cost neighborhood revitalization plans which, when implemented, are expected to achieve three Cash only core goals: 1. Housing 2. People 3. Neighborhood. Each application must focus on the revitalization of at least one severely distressed public and/or HUD - assisted housing project. ' Forthis reason, not a match for the Core Area. Multiple federal Strong Cities, Initiative helping localities overcome agencies Strong economic struggles through interagency Communities assistance Tax Increment West Side TIF Rolling Revitalization, public infrastructure Finance District Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 58 Annex A: Detailed Assumptions & Calculations Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 59 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table of Contents Table 1: Redevelopment Program Alternatives Table 2: Conceptual Development Program by Opportunity Site Table 3: Development Cast Assumptions Table 4: Financial Feasibility - Retail Table 5: Financial Feasibility - Office Table 6: Financial Feasibility - Multifamily Residential Table 7: Commercial & Residential Construction Cost Assumptions Table8: Real Property Tax Assumptions Table 9: Fiscal Benefits at Buildout - Summary of Scenarios Table 10: Redevelopment Phasing & Tan Generation Assumptions - Scenario 2: Conservative Table 11: Redevelopment Phasing & Tan Generation Assumptions - Scenario 3: Optimistic Table 12: Linear Park Implementation Strategy: Sources & Uses of Funding Table 13: Summary of Linear Park Development Costs and Phasing Recommendations Table 14: West Side T1F District Projections: Scenario 1 - Status Quo Table 15: West Side T1F District Projections: Scenario 2 - Conservative Table 16: West Side T1F District Projections: Scenario 3 - Optimistic Page A-1 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 1: Redevelopment Program Attematives Kalispell Core Area Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Conceptual Redevelopment Alternatives Status Quo Conservative OpUmiedc Retail Development (si) Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods 0 62,500 92,500 Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) 0 15,000 25,000 Total 77,500 117,500 Office Development (st) Residential Development (units) Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Willdan, 2013. 0 17,500 17,500 0 25 75 0 40 80 0 - 20 0 105 175 Page A-2 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 2: Conceptual Development Program by Opportunity Site Total Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Opportunity Buildout Site site Site Site Sites 11 Ste 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 (Core Areal Retail Development (A Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) Total Office Development (A Residential Development (units) Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total 92,500 2,500 30,000 50,000 10,000 25.000 10.000 10.000 5.000 115,000 2,500 17,500 2,500 5,000 - 10,000 75 BO 1/ Core Area wide opportunity sites are assumed to be throughout the pmject area and less than one acre on average. Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Wiilldan, 2013. 25 40 Page A-3 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 3: Development Cost Assumptions Tenant Costs per Square Foot - New Construction Hard Costs Soft Costs Improvements Parking Total Retail Development (sf) Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods $ 150 $ 30 $ 45 $ 36 $ 261 Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) $ 175 $ 35 $ 68 $ 36 $ 314 Office Development (st) $ 75 $ 15 $ 20 $ 36 $ 146 Residential Development (units) Unit Size Apartments - For Lease 1,050$ 100 $ 20 $ 2.25 $ 26 $ 148 Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units I goo $ 100 $ 20 $ 2.25 $ 30 $ 152 Condominium 1,,250; $ 200 $ 40 $ 2.50 $ 14 $ 257 Assumptions Parking Cost $ 12,000 Soft Costs (as % of hard costs) 20% Contingency 10% Gross building area per parking space $ 350 SF Parking Revenue $ - Per Year $ - Sale Interest Rate 7.5% Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Willdan, 2013. Page A-4 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial FeasibilityArelysls Table 4: Saudi Familiary-Reail &tlldi ulYeer Retail Derdupmam- Gross(Annual Retail - Apparel and Soft Good Retail - Restaurant (Deal & Full Service Subtald Mall M Retail Development - Net SF Pali Retail - Apparel and Soft Good Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service Subfaml WWI (so Not Income Retail - Apparel and Solt Goads Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service Net Income TOW Development Costs; Retail -Apparel and Soft Goad: Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Serdce Subtmel Retail (SP, Debt Equity Imeresl Rate Term Down Payment Petri +Closing Cast fatal Cash Imeslmanl Annual Payment Annual Cash Sim Cash an Cash Remm Cumulative Cash Few (for Pay4ackYea) Return an investment (Cash an Cost) -Yr 17 Assumptions: Leasing Comes Operating Costs (% Ravenue; Stabilized Vacancy Faclat Source: Kalispell Care Area Plan: Willder 2013 Bull" Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Year 1 2 3 4 5 8 30000 WOOD 10000 10,000 40,91)[1 - - - 40,000 - 25,500 COW of TOW of 201 30000 7,830,000 314 10,000 31135,000 40,000 10,955,000 60% $ 6,579,000 40% It 4,366,000 7.5% 10 $ 4,386,000 3% 131,580 $ 4,517,580 3% 25% 5% 33% ($5,205,183) ($658.148) (1658,148) ($658.148) 7,018,522 - (658,148) 21,852 21,852 0% -15% 0% 0% Page A-5 of 33 Mispell Gone Am Plan FMandal Feari Ana pals Table 4: F61alclal Fei - Belall BulldoWYM Ratan Containment - Grote (AnnueQ Retail - Apparel and Soft Good: Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service Gub6ffiI Rated (at) Remll OeYalopmwa - Net SF (Onsioll Retail - Apparel and Soft Goodr Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service subtoml now (90 Nab became Retail - Apparel and Soft Good: Retail - Restaumnt (Casual & Full Service Netlncome Total Dewdopmem Cams Recoil - Apparel and Soft Goad; Retail- Beslauram(Casual &Full Service Subtotal Retail (s¶ Debt Equity Interest Rate Term Dawn Payment POlnta+ Closing Cesft Total Cash Investment Annual Paymenl Annual Cash Flow Cash on Cash Return CumuRtive Cash Pow 0mPayback Yea) Realm an Imeshnem(Cash an Clas) -Yr 17 /wsumptso : Leasing Costs Operating Cots (%Reoenue; Sol VacamY Factoi Somme. Kalispell Core Area Plan; Will 2013 BuYdout Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Year 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 30.000 85% 25.500 25,500 25,500 25,500 25,500 25,500 25,500 25,500 25,500 25.500 25,500 65% 8,500 8,500 8.500 8.500 8.500 U00 8,500 8,500 8,500 8,500 8,500 34,000 3l 34,000 34.000 34,000 34,0011 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 34,000 $11i $2000 4,080,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 510.000 51 Tow 510,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 $20.00 1,360,000 17Q000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 5,440,OOO 680,000 680,000 Ofil 600,00D 680,000 6110,000 660,000 660000 650,000 680,000 Coati sf Total of 261 30,000 7,1330,000 314 10,DO0 3,135,000 40,000 10.965,000 60% $ 6,579,000 40% $ 4,386,000 75% 10 $ 4,306,000 3% 131,580 $ 4,517,580 1$5,26]83) 7,018,522 3% 25% 5% 33% ($668.148( ($658,148) $658,148) ($656,148) ($658,748) i$658,1481 l$65O1481 21,852 21,852 21,852 21.852 21.852 21,B52 21,852 680,000 680,000 MUM 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 15% 2113,522 89B,522 .,.:1;576,522 Page A-6 of 33 Kallspel Cwe Area Plan Rnandal Feel Analysis Table 4: Pool Reseal - Rated 8aiuputym AMDembp risat- Gross (Anal Retail -Apparel and Soft Goark Retail - Restaurant (Casual 8 Full Service SpElua l REW M AM Decelapnnalt-Net $F (On9eng) Retail - Apparel and Soft Good; Retail - Restaurant (Casual 8 Full Service Sul Retell M Net 1lcame Reel - Apparel and Soft Gook Retail - Restaurant (Casual 3 Full Service Net rearse Tole Doebi meet Coal Retail -Apparel and Soft Gera Betel - Restaurant (Casual 8 Full Service Subtmal Retail (at Debt Fquity Imerest Rate Term Oorm Peened Poids+Closing Curls Town Cash Imastmem Annual Payaned Annual fah All Cash on Caen Rehm GumulaMie Cash Flow 0a PavOsck Yea) Retum on hrvestrnent (Cash an Coop -Yr 17 Awwnptlons: Leasing Cask Operating Cass (% Revenue; Stabilized Vacancy Fact, Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Alcor, 2013 Ouldout Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Year 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 30,000 85% 25.500 25.500 25,500 255DO 25,500 25,500 25.500 25,500 25,500 25,500 85% 8,600 8,500 81500 8,500 8,500 8,500 8,500 8,50D 8,500 8,500 34,000 34,000 34.000 34,OOD 34,000 34,0110 34,000 34,090 34,000 34,000 $Real $2000 4,000,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 510,000 MUM 510,000 $2000 11360.000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,C00 170,000 170,000 170,000 5,440,11D 680)BDD 880,000 680,000 680.000 880.000 G80,000 880,ODD 600,000 680,000 GOW of Tee at 251 30,000 1,830,000 314 10,000 3,135,000 40,000 10,985,D00 60% $ 6,579.000 40% $ 4,306,000 7.5% 10 $ 4,386,000 3% 131,590 $ 4,517,580 ($5265163) 7,018,622 680,000 680,000 600,000 080,000 680,000 680.000 680,000 680,000 680,GD0 15% -15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 2250,522 2,938,522 3,510522 4,298,522 3% 25% 5% 33% Page A-7 of 33 Kallspell Core Area Plan Rnanckl Feasibility Mayas Table 5: Financial Fe MKY - Office BtldoutYwr Difice Development (d) Small Iormatindependent office Absorption Assumptions - % of Total Space Absorbed/ Annual sf Total Not New Was BiwitV Retail Development - Net OF (Ugolrng) Small formatrindependent office Subtotal Retail (so Dross Retail Saks (Gross Income) Operating Costs Net Leese Income Annual Debt Service (Mortgage Fernand) Total Development Costs Total at COGY St Total Net New Office Space/sf Debt Equity Interest Rate Term Down Payment Points + Closing Costs Total Cash lmestment Debt Sandoe Cash Flop Cash on Cash Return Cumulative Cash Flow gor Payback Year) Return an Investment (Cash an Cash) Assumplkrw: Leasing Costs Operating Costs (% Revenue) Stablllud Vacancy Fell TOW Source: Kalispell Care Area Plan; Willson, 2013. Bulclout Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr - - 2,500 - - - 10,000 - - U00 - - 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 17,500 17.500 17,5DO 0% D% 10D% 1DD% 100% 100% 50% 50% 5D% 75% 75% 100% 17,500 - - 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,50D 6,250 6,250 6,250 13,125 13,125 17,500 85% 14875 - 2,125 2,125 2,125 2,125 5,313 5,313 5,313 11,156 11,156 14,875 14,875 - - 2,125 2,125 4125 Z125 5,313 5,313 5,313 11,156 11.156 14.975 Les re RafaW $ 12 3,060,000 - - 25,500 25,500 25,500 25,500 63,750 63,750 63,750 133S75 133,875 170,500 % of Safes .13% (3,315) (3,315) (8,315) (3,315) (8,288) (8,288) (8,288) (17,404) (17,404) (23,205) 3,457.800 - - 28,815 28,815 28,815 28,815 72,038 72,038 72,038 151,279 151,279 201,705 17,500 146 $ 2,555,0DO 60% $ 1,533,000 40% $ 1,022,000 7.5% 10 $ 1,022,000 3% 30660 $ 11052,660 ($2,233,365) 1,224,435 ($223,337) ($223,337) ($223,337) ($223,337) ($223,337) ($223,337) ($223,337) ($223:337) ($223,337) ($223337) - (194,522) (194,522) (194,522) (194,522) (151,299) (151,299) (151,299) (72,058) (72,058) (21,632) 0% -18% -18% -18% -18% -14% -14% -14% -7% -7% -2% _- 094,5221 (389,043) (583,565) (778086) :(92&385� Page A-8 of 33 Kalispell Core Arm Plan Rnenelai F'siIn ft Awtious Table 5: Flnanclal Fembility- Office BuildeutYeer OIAce Development po Small formatfmdependent office Absorption Assumptions - %of Total Space Absorbed/ Annual at Total Nd New Dlfice Speoeld ReW Development- Net SF (Ongoing) Small format independent office SubhAel Reteil(4 Gross Palm Sam (Gross Income) Operating Costs Nat lease Income Annual Debt Service (Mortgage Payi Taw Demelepirwrt Dash Total at Cash Sf Total Net New Office Space/sf Debt Equity Interest Hate Tenn Deem Payment Points+ Closing Costs Total Cash Investment Daht SwYiw cash Row Cash an Cush Return Cumula8vx Cash now (hor PaybackYeaO Realm on Inwesbo:lt (Cash on Cash) Asmlmptiere: Leming Costs Operating Cols (% Revenua) Slabifaed Vacancy Factor Told Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Wlidan, 2013. BukW Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Year 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17.500 17.500 17,500 iT500 17.500 17,500 17,500 17,500 17,5DO 17,500 17,500 17,500 17,500 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1011% 100% 1DD% 100% 100% 17,SD0 17,SDO 17,500 17,500 17,500 17,500 17,5DO 17,500 17,5011 17,500 17,500 17,50D 17,500 17,500 85% 14875 14875 14,075 14875 14,875 14875 14,875 14,875 14075 14,875 14,875 14875 14875 14875 14,875 14,875 14,10 14,875 14,876 14.975 14,875 14.975 14,875 14,975 14,875 14,975 14,875 14AM Lease Paw $ 12 3,060,000 178,500 178,500 178,500 178,500 178,500 178,500 178,500 178500 178,500 178,500 178,600 178,500 178,500 %d Sam -13% (23,2D5) (23,206) (23,205) (23,205) (23,205) (23,2115) 123,205) (23,205) (23,205) (23.205) (23,205) (23,205) (23,205) 3,457,800 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201.705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 17,500 146 $ 2,%S,000 60% $ 1,533,000 40% $ 1,022,D00 7.5% 10 $ 1,022,000 3% 30660 $ 1,052,660 ($2,233,365) 1,22A,435 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 201,705 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% (M.2D5) Page A-9 0133 Kalispell Core Area Plan Flnandal Feaslblllty Analysis Table 6: Financial Feasibility - Multlmmlty Residential Bulldowl Packsaddle] Development - Lanka ApaNnents - For Lease Cumulative Units Available Absorption Assumptions - % all Tolal Apartments keened Net Leasehle Am Gross Leese Revenue Operating Costs Net Operating Income (Before Debt Service) Total Development Costs Taal of CcsV Sf Teti Debt Equity Intermit Rate Toren Dam Payment Points +Closing Costa Total Cash Investment Debt Service Cash Raw Carol on Cash Return Cumulative Cash Flow gor Payback Year) Return on Investment (Cash an Cash) RaimingAssumption Number of Units Year Selling Commences Absorption (par Yen) Average Unit Sim Net Saleable Area Leese Ru@Af Housing Oxupancy Factor Operating Coal Assunpbone Leasing Cams Operating Costs (% Revenue) Smbilirsd Vacancy Factor Total Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Wilder, 2013 1,050 Lease Rate7m7mo 1.05 % of Grass Lease Revenue 13% Bulldout Yr Yr Yr Yf Yr Yr Yr Yr 25 25 - - - 25 25 25 25 50 0% 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% fi3% 50 - - - 6 13 1g 25 31 - - - 6,563 13,125 19.688 26,250 32,813 $ 60% $ 40% $ 7,5% 10 3% $ 8 50 75 1,050 1,050 $1 50 100% 3% 5% 5% la% 12.237,750 82,fi68 165,375 248,063 330,750 413,436 (1,590,908) (10749) (21,49% (32,248) (42,998) (53,747) - 71,938 143,876 215,814 287,753 359,691 52,500 148 7,768,125 4,660,875 3,107,250 3,107,260.00 93.217.50 3,200,467.50 ($6,790,239) (1679,024) ($679,024) ($679,024) ($679,024) 3679,024) (1 3,1156,604 - @79,024) (607p86) (535,14% (463,210) (391,271) (319.333) 0% -21% -19% -17% -14% -12% -10% - (679,024) (1,286,110) (1321,257) Page A-10 of 33 Kalispell Cue Area Plan Finanmal FeaslbllRy Analysis Table 6: Financial Feasibllity - Mulesmlly Residential Bulldout Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Buldoul Year Year 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Residential Oevelapment - Units Apartments - For Lease Cumulative Units Available 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Absorption Assumptions - %of Total 75% BB% 1C0% 100'% _1W% 100%-:::. 1017% '.100% Apartments Rented 50 38 44 50 50 50 50 50 50 Net Leasable Area 1,050 39,376 45,938 52,500 62.600 54500 52,500 52,500 52,500 Lease Ra@/sf7ma Grose Lease Revenue 1.05 12,237,750 496,125 578,813 661,500 661.500 661.500 661,500 661,500 61 %of Gross lease Revenue Operating Costs -13% 0,590,908) (64.496) (75,246) (851995) (85,995) AIM) (85,995) l86,995) (85.995) Net Opemtlng Income(Besm Debt Service) 431,629 51 575,605 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 Total Development Cots Total at 52,500 CDW Sf 148 Total $ 7,708,125 Dew 50% $ 4,660,875 Equity 40% $ 3,107,250 Interest Role T5% Term 10 Down Payment $ 3,107,250,00 Palms + Closing Costs 3%$ 93,217.50 Total Cash Investment $ 3,200,467,50 Debt Service ($6.790,239) ($679,024( ($679.024) ($679,024) (5679,024) Cash Flow 3,856,604 (247,395) (175,457) 003,519) 003,519) 575.505 575,505 575,505 575,505 Cash an Cash Return -B% -5% -3% -3% 18% 18% 18% 18% Cumulative Cash Row got Payback Year) 1)". 0.89B.446) R,322.941) Mum an Investment (Cash an Comi Housing Assumption Number of Units 50 Year Selling Commences 1 Absorption ((oar Year, 75 Average Unit Size 1,050 Net Saleable Arm 1,050 LBase Rate/st $1.50 Housing Occupancy Factor 100% Doweling Coss Assumptions Asking Casts 3% Opemeng Cass (%Famous) 5% Stabilized Vacancy factor 5% Tell 13% Source: Kit ll Care Area Plan; winter, 2013 Page A-11 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Finarreial Feasibi lly Ardysis Table 6: Financial Feasibility - Multifamily ResldetNal Bulldom Year Residemlal Development- Units Aparrel-For Lease Cumulative Units Available Absorption Assumptions - %of Total Aperanenb Real Net Leasable Area Grass Lease Revenue Operating Casbl Net Operating Income (Bemre Debt Servlae) Test Development Coats moral sf Case St Total Debt Equity Interest Rate Term Denim Payment Pains+Closing Casts Tall Cash investment Debt Service Cash Row Cash an Cash Realm GumulmNe gash Flow Qnr Payback Yel Return an Immanent g:aeh an Cash) Houl Annual Number of Unis Year Salting Commences Absorption (per YW Average Unit Size Net Saleable Area Lease Ras/sl Housing Occupancy Factor Operating Coat Assumptbrw Leasing Coss Operating Costs (%Reseal Stabilized Vacancy Factor Total Source: Kalispell Care Area Plan', Willdan, 2013 Year 17 To 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 101 100% 100% 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 11050 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 Lease RaRfsf7ma 1.06 1$237,750 661,500 661,500 661,500 661,500 561,500 661,500 661,500 Bel 500 661,500 %of Glen Loess Revenue -13% (1,590,900) (85,995) (85,995) (85,995) (05,995) (65,99W (85,995) 185,995) (86,995) (65,906) 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 576,505 575,505 52,500 14B $ 7,768,125 60% $ 4,660,875 40% $ 3.107,250 7.5% 10 IS 3.107,250.00 3% $ 93,217.50 $ 3.200,46750 ($P.7-0239, 3,856,604 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 575,505 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 1B% 10% 16% 18% (747,43) (471 ?3311''•c 03574 ,'^,87SOf9" i''u �4 `;; ... 18% 50 1 75 1.050 1.050 $1.50 100% 3% 5% 5% 13% Page A-12 of 33 Balbpal Cue Area Plan Orendod Fe dit Amayds Table P. Oommmm &PmwffwPaueudlon Cat Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Buldbal Tool Cal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 RddD reWW Paull- Apparel W! Soft Gadv 16,313,000 - - 6531000 - - - - - 13,050,000 - - 2,610,000 BBbll-3atlemr4 FMWI&Full SWIM) 4,703,000 3,135,000 1,568000 9abmI 21O/0.000 - - 853.000 - - - - 18,1mom - - 4,lM= OMMIDMIUMM 0moolor Leme re0 2,MOOD 365,000 1,461 MOOD kwaaml Bafteea AVMTds - Fa Lease 7,768,D00 - 3,884,000 - - - 3,884,000 - - - - Low Income FbWN Tv Coedit Units 4.872,000 - - - - 4,872O - - - - - Conoaninium 25,000 25.0D0 SebM 12885,000 - - - 3,111 - - 4,872,OOD 3,884,000 - E51000 - - Tod Annual Omsiatchon 0 molne18 36,,236,000 Scarce: WWII Cue 0rea Plan; W1114an, 2013. 1,018,000 3,884,000 - - 0,332,000 3,854,000 16,185,000 765,000 - 4,178,000 Page A-13 of 33 3*mM CoreW Plm FYrermbl FOWW* kayd% TOD 7: Cmmwdd8Ile"rdYewfi lctlm CM Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr stowym T¢ll1Cmi 13 14 15 10 17 18 18 20 21 22 23 24 23 RON Owdom nt Pelall-ApmWand ShcS 16,313,000 - - - - - - - - - - - Hdail W tmant (Cmual 3 Full Se*O 4703000 - - - - - SeOooWRdWlRPi 21.010,000 MND M Wwd Ommil 2,555,000 xwldm3d Dmkp Wt Apmtmente -Fer Lmae Lax-Immne WwM Taa Cmdt lk e Cmelominium SUbMi Towl Anmmd CmmrwWn lmwhwt 38,233.000 3mme: MlWdl Care Pfm Plan; Willdm, 2013. Page A-14 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 8: Real Property Tax Assumptions Before Renovation After Rerwation After Renovation Business Property Type/Description Total Size (sf or units) Taxable Value - Land Taxable Value - Building Taxable Value - Land Taxable Value - Building Incremental Assessed Value (Land + Building) Total incremental Taxes PSF After Renovation Sykes Supermarket/ Restaurant/Apt commercial - multifamily imp 3,466 695 723 1,883 4,963 3,108 0.90 Sykes Supermarket(Restaurant/Apt mixed use- Fetal, storage &apts 27,540 2,409 - 2,814 52,521 47,298 1.72 Sykes Supermarket(Restaurant/Apt restaurant 7,466 2,409 4,523 2,738 8,042 7,418 0.99 Sykes Supermarket/Restaumm/Apt retail 2,700 2,409 1,652 2,738 2,239 (1,256) (0.47) Appleway, Trail Arts apts 71,320 10,665 83,733 73,068 1.02 Brannigan's Pub/Restaurant /1 restaurant/bar 13,000 7,243 5,330 (1,913) To /2 retail 7,540 7,414 8.853 9,747 10,120 1,812 0.24 Depot Place Aide opts 35,607 6,281 15,681 9,400 0.26 Kalispell Center Mall /3 retaiUhotel 297,696 103,023 231,119 103,023 231,119 256,192 Incremental Assumed Averages for TIF Calculations Assessed Value psf Retail Development $ 0.26 Office Development $ 0.24 Apartments - For Lease $ 0.98 Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units $ 0.90 Condominium $ 1.02 1 / Completed remodel value has not been picked up for 2013 yet. Renovation not complete as of 1 /1113. Full renovation value will be added for 2014 tax year. 2/ value only at 50% complete construction for 2013. This project has also applied for a property tax exemption. 3/ completed remodel value for 2013 still pending review Page A-15 of 33 K ail Cam Aran Plan FEW RBesPoapyAmlyse Tie 9: Real Benefits at Bupdoel- Summary ofScensafos Paclea lop wrier Program Retail Development fall Retail - Apparel and Solt Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) SuUbOtl DWa Development (30 Pesicleft DeWopment (i Apartments; -For Lasse Low -Income lousing Tax Credit Units Condominium Su6bblif TaW teremellhlVa wMW Property Tame Scenario 1:S ee Ow SOMM 2: OmminWlve UWA Avmage Incremental Real Prop" Tax 0enloomeas FsmmmWTamab OereWmert IRrmnenW Tessa OeebammR kmmmWTeeee Vehaw PMOMM W$ Yehle Rao Pt"TM Pismo Vase RUIRopmryTm Pmpler" Vane Ree Props"Tame $ 0,28: - $ - $ - 62,500 $ 16,015 $ 10,998 92,500 $ 23,702 $ 16,276 $. 026' - $ - $ - 15,000 $ 3,844 $ 2,639 25000 $ 6406 S 4399 - - - 77,500 19,858 13,637 117,500 30,108 20,675 $ _'_ 024: - $ - $ - 17,500 $ 4,208 $ 2,888 17,500 $ 4,206 S 2,888 $ 0:98 - $ - $ - 52,500 $ 51,222 $ 35,175 78,750 $ 76,833 S 52,783 $ 090: - $ - $ - 32,000 $ 28,695 $ 19,705 64,000 $ 57,389 S 39,411 $ 1,G21 $ $ $ $ 25,000 $ 21113 S 17,589 - $ - $ - 84,500 $ 79.917 $ 54,SB1 167,750 $ 169,836 $ 109,762 $ $ 179,50D $ 11 $ 71,406 302,750 $ 194,149 $ 133,326 Psaarp6me: 2013 Flathead County Millage Rate = _ UAIW2' Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan, Wilder, 2013. Page A-16 of 33 Kalispell Core Nee Plan Financed FearalWly Analysis Table 10: Recenclopnea Phasing Max 6enardon Aaeanpt!"-Sewmalo 2 Caaax®oIB BWW AYW Real Oewloparers Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) &* WRaW(60 Olica Oe1ecpmant Raddental Development - UnBs Apartments - For Lease Lm-Income Housing To Credit Units Condominium TOW Un$s Reaxleldtal 0aMWnWt-a Apartments - For Lease Lou -Income Housing To Credit Units CUOdomedUm TOW Ul Masterminds! Red Property Tarlbuaaes ROWI Oelalopmenl Retall - Apparel and Son Golds Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) Subb" Oft Berdopment Res derelal Daelopment ApaMrena - Far Lease Low -Income Housing To Credit tads Condominium Sul kernel Real Property To Remain Qsnule6Ye 7arRerealw 112013 Flathead Goal Millage Rate = Scums: Kalispell Cora Area Plan; Will 2013, Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr at at Yr Yr Yr Yr 62,500 2.500 50,000 10,000 15,000 10.000 5.000 77,500 - - 2,500 - - - - mom - - 15,000 17,500 2,500 10,000 5,000 50 25 25 40 40 90 _ _ _ 25 _ _ 40 25 9050 52,500 80p 32,000 5;250 B4,500 ToValoe PSF /1 $ less $ 0124 a 098 S 086 $ 102r 6867% 26,250 32,000 26250 $ - $ - $ 440 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 8,798 $ - $ - $ 1,760 $ $ - $ - $ $ - $ $ - $ $ 1,760 $ - $ - $ 880 - - 440 -11 -IIIIII $ 10,556 $ - $ - $ 2,639 $ - $ - $ 413 $ - 3 - $ - $ 11850 $ - $ - $ 825 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,588 $ - $ $ - $ 17,588 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 19,705 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ a52 $ 17,588 $ - $ - $ 21,356 $ 17.W8 $ 10,556 $ 026 $ - $ Z639 1,35$504 $ 852 16440 3 18440 $ 16440 $ AM $ 57,383 1 67,941 68,766 60,766 71AOB Page A-17 of 33 KWlspol Core Area Ran Rival Ru aldlllyAni Tabe1R RaWalopmem Phi &Tau GenBmtlan Assumpacos- Scenario 2: croswvdn BuldoutYear Rda00eaeopmem Ratan - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Reslaumm (Casual & Full Sandra) Office Daelopmem ResWWU Deaxsp nMA- Wit Apartments - For Lease lm Income Housing Tax Crack WRs Condominium TOW Units RwMentiW Dovdopmi- d Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Wits Condominium TOW Units Inmern6eW feel "fly To Plawmas Read DeHeopmem Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Read - Restaurant (Casual & Full SwAce) $uld" DMse DewoRnent RoWdN0Y DN*PR nl Apsmnenm - For Lease Low Income Housing Tex Credit 0nns Condominium Bubi Ammd Red Property Tax Re4enues CumuMoTARevemass 112013 Redhead County Millage Rare= Source: Kalispell Cue Am Plan: Wlltlan, 2013. Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr TwValua PSF /1 026 $ $ - $ $ - $ - $ - $ $ $ $ - $ $ - $ - - - - - - - - $ - $ - $ - $ '$) 0.24 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - s - $ - S - $ - $ $ 0,9B $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ $ 090 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ $ 102 $ $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -. -_.$ --_-_$_ - $ - $ - $ - s 71,406 71A06 71406 71406 $ 71406 $ 71,406 $ 71,406 $ 71,406 $ 71,408 S 71M 71,408 $ 71.406 S 71,406 66.G7% Page A-18 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 11: Redawalmment Phasing &Tax Generation Assumptons - Scenario 3: Optimistic Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Bull Year Retail Development (e$ Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) Subtotal Retail (a) Off Ire Development (A Residential Development (Unls) Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Units Reaidental Oevelopment 1=$ Apartments - For Lease Low-income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Untie Incremental Real Property Tax Revenues Retail - Apparel and Soft Goads Retail- Restaurant Casual &Full Service) Subtotal Retail (sf) Subtotal Office Development Residential Development Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Units Subtotal Annual Real Property TBx Revenues Cumulative Tax Revenues 112013 Flathead County Millage Rate = Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan: Willoan, 2013, T(FW Builoout 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 17,500 75 80 2,500 10,000 5,000 Tax Vslue PSF /1 $ 1026`: $ - $ - $ 440 $ - IS 5,279 $ - $ - $ - $ 8,798 $ - $ - $ 1,760 S 0.28. $ - $ - $ - $ $ 1,760 $ $ $ $ 1,760 $ $ $ 880 $ - $ - S 440 $ - S 7,038 S - $ - S - $ 10,558 $ - $ - $ 2,639 $-': ».024. $ - $ - $ 413 $ - It - $ - $ 1,650 $ - S - $ 825 $ - $ '$"'Z 0.98r $ - $ - $ - IS 17,588 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 17,588 $ - $ - IS 17,588 $:+':..0.90. $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 19,705 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 19,705 $ 1.02:: $ - $ - $ - $ - $ $ - $ $ $ - $ 17,589 $ $ $ - $ - - 17,558 - $ - $ Ill $ - $ 17,588 $ 17,589 $ - $ 37,293 $ - $ - $ 852 $ 17,688 $ 7,038 S - $ 21.356 $ - $ 28,145 $ 18,414 $ - $ 39,932 2,292,245 $ - $ - $ 852 18440 S 25479 25479 $ 46,834 $ 40,834 S 74,979 $ 93.393 $ 93,393 S 133,326 68,67%. Page A-19 of 33 Kalispell Gore Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 11: Redevelopmerd Phasing & Tax Generators Assumptions - SCsnar Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Bulkiii Year Retail Development (sU Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) Subtotal Retail (A Office Development (0 Residential Development (Units) Apartments - For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Units Residential Development (so Apartments- For Lease Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Tahl wits III 1,050 800 1,250 Tax Value PSF Monumental Real Property Tax Revenues 11 Retail - Apparel and Soft Goods Retail - Restaurant (Casual & Full Service) $ 0.26 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - E - Subtotal Retail (s0 S 0.26 $ $ $ $ $ IS $ $ $ $ $ $ $ - $ubtaw $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Office Development Residential Development Low -Income Housing Tax Credit Units Condominium Total Units Subtotal Annual Real Property Tax Ransom Cumulative Tax Revenues l/ 2013 Flathead County Millage Rate = Source: Kalispell Care Area Plan; Widan, 2013, E 0.24 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ E 0.90 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.90 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -1.02 $ $ $ - $ - $ $ - $ - $ $ $ $ $ $ $ - $ - $ - $ - $ $ - - $ - $ $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ IS $ $ - $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 133,326 $ 13%326 133,326 $ 133,326 66.67% Page A-20 of 33 Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Table 12: Liner Pak Implementation Strategy: $Dorcas $ Wes of Funding Potential Funding Sources Omer Gram Other Gram PrNate/Non-Prottt Funding CIM of Kalispell Private/Non-PmIB Funding City of Kalispell Phasing Core Area linear Park improvement Unit TM Unft Gam I&Ita Total CM (%of Toul) I%of Tomg (%of Tphg (1s41b (fatal S) (row $) (so year) Summary of Sources and We of Funding $4,452.354 6% 6% 88% $231,600 $247,500 S3,923,254 1 Umr Pak WrafTasaram Pnawsdsn BWRoµ Iy avms IXaaRWdawlers feed in Clay of Kalial re rag bm" merfammp legal Fes $ 5,000 1 $ 5AW 0% 0% 100% SO SO $5,000 1-3 2 linear Park Fmemnrrei 6111emerba%n Pham1 S 51000 1 S 5,0110 0% 100% 0% $0 $5,00G SO O'IrkmNnmW asessurrenl Phasell S 50.000 1 $ 5C,W0 0% 100% 0% $0 MOOD $3 1-3 $ 55.000 $ - $ 58000 S - BNSF rsrwLS$ rtcytis raps S Bs 11 rod 17.20D $ - 100% 0% 0% $0 $0 SO 1-3 4 Pakmster Plan Smeics S 20.000 1 $ 20.000 0% 0% 1DD% S3 SD S2C.OD0 1-3 Page A-21 of 33 Kagapee Care Area Ran Fancied Feaabilgy Anaiyab Tabb 12: unaer Pork llnplam6gadon Shell Scheme& Uses of Funding PomrnW Fuoding Salaam Other Grand Other Great FrNate/ Non Profit Funding city Of Ke I NMI NomProBt Funding Cry of $all I Phaeln9 Core Area Llnanr Park lmuroaament UnIt Time Unit Goof Units Total Cast 1%Of Taff I%Of Tamp iofT taq (TOW $) (row $) (Foblm (Pinyear) Summery of Spureas and Uaes of Funding $4,452,354 6% 6% 88% $281,600 $247,500 $3,11".254 5 Installadbnof Shared Use Tell Shared al fall anedruchon(concrele) $Alrlearh If 45.00 17,200 $ T74,000 0% 0% 100% $0 $0 $774000 dlghllrg-Poke $Hole If 4,400 45 S isill 0% 0% 100% $0 $u $19l Lbera - Bull SrOdbrd $ 2200 45 $ 99,000 0% 0% 100% $0 $0 $99OM Electrical wiling Selnearit If 1.74 17.200 $ MON 0% 0% 10D% SO $0 11300W 4-6. Intel '.iit $ 030 619.20D $ 111l 0% 0% lDD%. SO SO S1115160 Sol $ask $yagft $ 0.19 Still 0 If 114,552 0% 0%. 100% $0 SO $114552 These 80arennhb '. smwit $ 1.31 If 17.200 IS 22,500 0% 0% 1Op% $O 0 Ill -150ft 11 1,423,B12 $ — $ 1,423812 6 Berjdel Trailhead Cra lnn Polnan, Thing lmploynnenls to NGude Tell banres to hackers: gra6lginevinDfawal site amergka (seating). biased signal 8 warbling lunded by pumb and private ovonal rightayspom shill Neth $ Fast Canneebn: COnnav: Wmdland Park $Iawreare Park via BN Highway 2wepma [Kallapell Safeway H96WI 4-6 West Cormier: Connect the Wall Trail in the Win Iran vm a now ball herd at Want Sill Avenue yM South Connector: Cenral the KIP m Sere"Halheed Lake S4roilmed $ 15.000 4 $ 60.000 50% 0% 50% $30000 $0 $30001) ] Kalispell Galexay Brbge Matins Irnawemenb $Mt S 100 600 $ 6QOOD 0% IN% 0% SO $0000 $0 teeing $dims, it S 125 330 $ 37.500 0% 100% 0% $O $37.600 -. $O 4-6.. talks!soll Wsipn S 15.000 1 If 15.00D 0% 100% 0% SO $15.000 $0 aigrette $ 112.500 SO $112.500 ) SO B WP Traglof kepINPek Initial ®bmcannese ipreand by Bnan $Aomi $ 150A00 1 $ 1M.00D 150% 0% (N6 $ 150,ODOiff $0 $ - rramd h�n. n, s¢uriry, amenitles teantlaS, two. security, park sitepat Shlle $ 50,000 1 $ 50,000 50% 0% 50% $ 2$000 $0 S 25,000 4-6 salads onsts 8lnorpretigve dgwge rags 8 200,OOD If 175,000 $ - S 25,000 9 WP Trail Real- Apphwvay Trail Senior Oubmr Rims Park Instigation of market sblbn amelgian: legal lees $ 2,500 1 $ 2,500 0% 0% 100% $ SO S 2,500 site acaerlton two conked to nOn-prafia $hide S 33,600 1 IS MAN 100% 0% D% $ 33.6W $0 $ - camor Ifterear, equirweend M Sung, S 9,000 2 $ 111= 100% 0% 0% $ law $0 $ - 4-6 -` ranhooma iahoml blew) SNallwod $ 5.000 2 $ 10,000 100% 0% 0% $ 10,000 $0 If waylindirg slpnagelhailmnd S 64.150 $ Gil $ - $ 2500 10 winegrowers Flathead Eleenic Cal Pork Phase I B I Erninn ere rs! Is 5.000 1 $ 5,00D 0% 100% 0% If $ 5,000 $ Phase lll$ U Enamona dal $ S0000 1 If 5(.00D 0% 100% 0% $ - $ 50,000 $ land acWldlhn(donation or excherge TB0) $!acre S - 2 S - 100% 0% aiP If $ $ 46 - weakness Sn 14 $ 15,000 1 $ 15,000 100% 0% 0% $ 15'" $ $ parking lyolareey to he shared with FEC) IS $1polirg on $ 10.000 1 If 1000D 0% 0% 100% $ - $ $ Tol tmilhead 9 4.000 1 $ 4,OOD 0% 096 100% $ $ $ 4000 $ M,00D If Ill If 55,000 $ 140p0 Page A-22 of 33 Warned Core Area Plan FnancWl Feasibility Analysis Table 12: LRmm Park IlnPwmema8on SbetegT: Sourl & them of Funding Potenbal Funding Sources ONm Grant OUsr grant PrtmW/Non-PrAn Funding Cry of l(alls0e11 PMeta/Non-Pmgt Funding City of Kellvell Final Case Area Llnesr Park l_mgroyement Umt TYm Ung Cost Units Total Cut Ce Of TOM Mof TO" (%OfTowg (raw 0) (raw 11 Raal$1 (Plan YO O Summery of Somme WUms of Funding $4,452.354 6% 6% 88% $281,500 $247,5(0 $3,923,254 lji�atlmgiammtlg Wruj: 11 Petlepulseb Pedanensamy fineam (armsNg Bgpsf at. .ra rims) SNAvmm EN $7ero51ng $ 596,850 1 $ 595.650 0% 0% 100% S - $ - $ 598,850 JNAwnm VrN ywmirg $ 705,691 1 $ 705A91 0% 0% 100% $ S $ 70]08091091 710 1 $ 1,303,941 $ - S - $ 1,303,941 (MAMuem ymassirm 629,460 1 S 529,460 0% 0% 100% $ - $ - $ 629,460 Bm Avem¢IM1N 1boser4l S 444,541 1 S 444,541 0% 0% 100% 3 $ $ 444,541 7-10 S 1,014,001 - $ - $ - $ 1,974p01 13 IgP T2B FmWm- Nalapep Cmler Mal Cbtls Tower Plaza sVeNsmpeuP9radmam pedmlrwnpWm Nd tbdMe 100% 0% 0% 3 - SO $ - tlev,:kpermutrmre5ccrkWwmmmins:fim and lreded Ira ma 106% 9% 0% $ y s 7-10 inmdonla, Ina mrmninetl y91e $50,000 1 $ 50.000 0% 50% 50% $ - S 25,000 $ 25= 710 PB:mcBng Rmzotaclm-PMaeemmrxegr vackant Canter BN S - 100% 0% 0% S - S $ - PmfmOubeam3msds-mretm qr medcW mnmmiry SfArurdy Career Nd $ - 100% U% 0% $ - S $ - 7-10 Pmm.Vana gPam SAthily Center gal $ - 100% 0% 0% $ $ $ $ S S - es BNGP net of imn value ri be daermimtl. arn to kengi8cn 2J nearness, 2/Unear erkarea tenter as Wnp-Wrm Imse wrth All Families LLC for censercmmdons e 3/linear Park area assumaz', cnglh 17,2 wldlh no 6o IOWl area (sq. k) 1,0,560 m_IVaae 4545,523 saes 23 Tim Park aWlemmemsVeua 1,200.00 Annual Malrmrence Coal: ZI,182 4/ParkWA mats polBMlalfy Wmcd bYge�d trmn BmndW laSa/aiy W Amwwav Seror Fit ee8 Center assumes rase eslimeWs omaimd Ink Ularmil Atluams lMll. S.rsrem. Source: City of kaliseli BNSF BaAvayMATCO Mission M mmin Palmed; FlaNmd sagely Emiomc Omelea ent Anthony-, Men, 2013 Page A-23 of 33 Table 13: Kalispell Core Area Plan Financial Feasibility Analysis Summary of Linear Park Development Costs and Phasing Recommendations Linear Park Environmental Remediation BNSF Track Removal Park Master Plan Installation of Shared Use Trail Subtotal 7 Kalispell Gateway Bridge 8 KLP Trail Feature - Depot Park 9 KLP Trail Feature - Appleway Trail Senior Outdoor Fitness Park 10 KLP Trail Feature - Flathead Electric Co -Op Park 11 Pedestrian Crossing Upgrades (Railroad Conversions) Subtotal 13 KLP Trail Feature - Kalispell Center Mall Clock Tower Plaza 14 Woodland Park Amphitheater 15 Health, Wellness, Sustainability Programming Subtotal Source: City of Kalispell; Willdan, 2013. Private! Non-Profd 1P $ 175,000 $ 61,600 $ 15,000 $ 281,600 Other Grant 55,000 $ $ 20,000 $ 1,423,812 $ 112,500 $ 55,000 $ 167,500 $ 25,000 $ 2,500 $ 14,000 $ 1,303,941 $ 1,375,441 Total Cost $ 55,000 $ 20,000 $ 1,423,812 $ 1,503,812 $ 112,500 $ 200,000 $ 64,100 $ 84,000 $ 1,303,941 $ 1,824,541 $ $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ $ $ 25,000 1,099,001 $ 50,000 1,124,001 Page A-24 of 33 Kohl Com Am Plan FlnenNal FesslaltayAANysis Table 14: Weal Side TF Mind Pr*ctlms: Smnedo 1 -Soon Om anplemffWm Year TIF YEAR Bass, Year Value Onm1h Rare Testae Properly Veto Total lueso e Increment BpWg Desolater Payment Ranalnhrt TIF Revenues 6YIm1196ve Value OunenlTlFVaNe QlmUNIM Val6ntuft cunentTlq Come Area Plan Cos% Rai Served ln&% ial Pate Core AmLb mr Park Suamal Owe Area Plan FlramSa Fezal Anall BF Fund {Balance Fomard) Incremental TIF Revenues (baseline) Incremental Tares: New De /Rarkuelopmam Rail Solved Industrial Park Costs Core Area Linear Park Costs TIF FW* RSMWkg 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 292D 2021 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11,551,896 MLIMA 407.838 815,670 1,223,514 1,631,352 2039,190 2447,028 2,854,866 3AZI04 SM.542 3,020,649 3,478,487 3,99i,325 094,163 4,854001 5,3011,839 5,797,977 ORM515 6,883,353 (2,676454) (41,500) (1,303,941) (1,074,001) (25,000) Qxmm e 2562811 2,562,811 2,970649 702,033 (336,941) 38,897 405,235 (490,868) (1,157.031) (774,193) 9,788,112 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 (2,676,454) - (2,676,454) . 139232541 - - (1,446.812) (30,000) (41,5D5) (1,303,941) (1,074,001) (25,000) - 5,751,215 $ 297g64R $ 702,033 (888,941) $ X897 $ 4IM235 4 mom It 0,157,0m) $ M19% $ WAR 2013 Flathead County Allage Raw = 0.68672 Sourm. Kalispell Care Area Plan; Wilton, 2013. Page A-25 of 33 (eapeg Coe Area Plan Financial Feastellay Analysis Table 14: Wedsldew restrict Nations: Sceccdo 1 - Blame Duo hnMamenhtlon Year TIFYFAA Bw Yam Value GnxAh Rate Taxable Properly Value Tom Incmaee Increment: BmIti g DeMopor Payment Remaining TIF Rmw CunuMAc Value Cimem TIF Value CumumB.e Value Occluding camera TlF Care Neer Ran Coss Fell Send Industrial Park Cme Area MnemPads SuMuaI Cam Neer Han Financial Feae6bAna" TIF Fund (Balance Forward) Incremental TIF Revenues (Baseline) Incremental Taxes: New Dw/Rederelapment Rail Saner Industrial Pant Costs Cam Neer lunar Park Costs TIF FUMs Romadnhg 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 18 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11,661,896 (50,000) (50,000) (50,000) (50,000) 50,000) 150,000) (50UD0) (50.000) 407,830 407,836 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,83E 407,83E 407,838 4,076,380 4,400,218 4,694,050 5,301,894 6,709,732 s117,570 6,54,408 6,883,246 2,562,811 7,141,191 7,599,029 8,056,867 8.514,705 8,972,543 B,4 D= 8,888,218 10,346,057 (2,676,454) (3 923 254) (6,599,708) CumdiSNe 2,562,811 (366,355) 41,483 449,321 857,159 1,264,997 1,672,835 2.080,673 2,488,511 9,788,112 407,838 407,838 407,838 407.838 407,B38 407,83B 407,83B 407,838 (2,670,454) - - - - - - - - (3923254) - - - - - - 6,751,216 $ 41,483 S 449,,321 $ 857,159 S 1,264,997 1,672,E35 S 2,DSO,673 S 2,488.511 i 2,RII&M: Aseump8ow 2013 nalhead County Millage Pale = 0.8R672 Source: Kalispell Care Area Plan', Willdan, 2013. Page A-26 of 33 Kalispell Cone Area Plan Pomndal FeaslbillMAnaWs Table 14: West Site TIF District Projections: Barbara 1 - Stelm Quo Implementation Year ]IF YEAR Base YemVan (0a44h Rah Taxable Pmpmly value TOW Increase Increment Expiring Developer Payment Remalnag TIF Farina Cumulative View CuneMTIFValue Correlates Value lindwlln0 correct TIF) Care Area Plan Career Roll Send 1n0ecl0al Park Core AreallnearP&k SublmM Care Am Plan Financial FaM4MNealpls TIF Fund ((Balance Forward) Increnranrm TIF Resarns (Baseline) Incremental Term: Nees Ceallmseve[opmen Rail Served Industrial Park Costs Cam Area Linear Park Costs 11F Feel Rival 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11,551,896 (50.000) (50,00% 150,0Om (50,000) (50,000) (50,OOD) 00.00 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,838 407,830 407338 407,833 7.341,054 7,748,922 8,15B,760 8,504,598 8,972AW 9.380274 9,788,112 2XZ811 10,803,895 11281,733 11,719,571 12,177,409 12,835,247 13,093,0% 13,650,923 (2,676,454) (3923254) A599,70Bj Guntim" 2.562,811 2,898,349 3,3D4,187 3,712,025 4.119,863 4,527,701 4,935,539 6343,377 9,788,112 407,830 407,B313 407,83E 407,838 407,838 407,838 407.838 (2,676,454) - - - - - - (3,923.254) - - - - - - - 6,751,215 $ 3,304,181 $ 3,712,0P5 $ 4,119,863 S 4,527.701 $ 4,926,539 S 5,343,377 S 5,751,215 Assam wire, 2013 Rameaa County Mllage Rate - 0.68672 Source: Kalispell Core Area Plan; Wildan, 2013. Page A-27 of 33 NWgfe0C eA Phn Fr fflF IIIMA Woe Me 15: Weel $Ma TF OYMM ka)w5wuo, Saen Wo 2 - ConumAM PW Yr. 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T6 VEAR Base YearValue 6mwNRda Tamale HaRaMYahre TOW nmemant B*Wry lanerPry d ReaaWWVFRe.n. W .leWYe VaI. cprremnPVW. Cu6ubtlae Value QntlWin9 curem T$j fareW.Hm R.FasW$ k.W n NW(BeW Farwad) MaemenW TIF R.m (B.1W) Mememel Ta :New OwRieE Oprrmnt CoreA ¢ Lhear Pal Pah B49a Cora Wm Lal.r Pak Coble WFun6e Remelnn9 11A51,B36 2662All 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1B 18 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 w 202E MR 2030 A 0% 0% 0% A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3,B70,512 4.B1B3B0 4,486,218 4,OKM 5A01,804 5,709,M 8,117,570 5,525,408 6.933248 7,341A54 Q2q.353 6.641,191 7,".M 7,458,887 7AKM5 %M,643 8,6R0.9B1 9A6g219 9A96A57 9A03A95 Oare9tl1. $ 2,562,Bll $ i6mm1) $ 045AB2) $ 331,542 $ M8,1M $ 1,287390 $ 1,766,633 $ 220.M $ 2725,121 S 3.204,384 S 3.663,808 9.M.112 $ 407.MB $ 407,83B $ 9C,838 $ 407838 f 407A38 $ 497,838 $ 407,A16 $ 467A3B $ 407,838 $ 407838 1,287,098 9 67,941 $ KN6 $ 66766 $ 71,406 $ 71,406 f 71,406 $ 71,406 $ 71,406 $ 71p0B $ 71,406 (2,676, 54) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ $ - $ - $ $ - $ - f3923.2541 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - '7.0g313:..S MAP -M A42 A6B,10, $ 1,287AW $ 1,795,633 $ 2.245A77 $ 2.723,121 $ 3AB4,364 $ 3.683,60E % 4,162A51 Amgpu= M13 FW .d Ca" Maape Rae= $898/2 Warta: Wepel Wra Wee FYB WMd.. 2013. 1§9e A-29 W 33 U40 Cm Nee Plea FWm tW FenUftA elyaM T&d 15: NYeI &tle Tff ONMM ProJactlmu: &aurl9 2 - Cmuervetlw Plan Yr. TFVFPA GU Pww TamUhlnPm 6m . No aay Vekrn TM Mmen e MmemeM ft M.IBTIF Poyment Remalnlrq TlFReremu cwlwB VYM4 CuuunFVuce CuMetlre W lee 6nduB1A curaM nq Cme W Plan FMm d) AmNaN IF Wna 81aWce Fawxtll Memeri W TF Nauenuro �meFe1 Maam4mel TMceM: New Davfiekrebpment BaesMmMaMAWau PeacCras Cou Area hear Park Coos nF WnavPerrebkq W 21 22 29 24 0 m 2W2 2W9 2A34 2W5 2098 A 094 0Ye n 0% O 1y651,BW — 12218,SB9 12218,599 12,218599 12,218599 12218.599 12,218.09 12.218.599 12.218599 12.218599 12.218.599 12218.99 12.218599 666.7W 666.703 666.708 W6.7W 668703 666,M3 457,838 457,838 457,8W 457,8W 457,838 457.W6 W,000) MAR MAW80oc) MAM MAO 4W,8W 407,08 407,836 407,838 407,838 407,838 7,748,922 8,1587W &5 km B,T12A38 9.368274 %MB,112 2,662A11 10AI1,733 10,719,671 11,127,100 11,536,247 11,MA5 12,35%= Clenuuk2 $ 2,562,811 $ 4,152,&51 S 4,642,N5 $ 5,121,339 $ 5,600,582 $ 6,09,826 $ 6,559,070 9,788,112 3 407,838 $ 407,W8 S 4W,82 8 407,8M 8 407,83B $ 407,83B 1,287,M $ 71,Q6 $ 71.W6 $ 71,406 $ 71,4W $ 71,406 8 71,406 T..WB,313 AMUW M RMtlreaa CgM6VWlw P21e= ll B Smme: Bu "ll CAre NMe PMn: MU 2013, Page H�30 M 33 6WWWI Care Am PM FlemMal N"W*Arms@ Tells 18: W SWWCBB1A1ftjMWOSw 3-0pI %m W. 1FIFAR fiwYw Velue BwMRW Tsr01a %aPe�bNAm Told Au FryIT4 Cwe menl NmMIry IFH.Reerue WmuNW.Vtlue Pm TFV.W. 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LtlW Care MU PAn%nreW FrWWiq AUIpF WrYM R FNbel6n(amei0 S 2W88.112 $ 2,562,811 $ 2,910,649 A $ 10$.838 $ d01A3B .WTlA.enum(BaWine) IremenW imu'.Nr0eMletlwNpnert $ $ 2.158,919 2.676,49) $ $ Ril BaveAYtlm®I PeM Wsm $ 12.616,4547 - Q6I6,4541 CRekr WmPek Cstls $ 13923 2591 $ $ $ 11FftnN RarMA MUM $ 2AM.649 6 M.M " W, 9 o�V", O.M72 mo,2 Mom $ P'Som1 $ MASS 3 450,006 $ 020,61%S (1,039,MT7 407,e98 $ 40i838 $ 407 MB $ 407,8M S 407,838 $ 401,836 852 $ 1844o $ Z479 $ 254N S 46,834 $ 46,Su $ a s s s 4488I4 a fJ0,W01 $ [41$oW $ (1 a0a941] S 1,074,001) f QS,OOm Pe aA310133 ?MVBII NmN PYn Fhanc%l Fre Illa'PMly& TEN 15: W.k See ¶F Rbbw PBoleNon.: 3umalo 3 -NthWk PMYr. iFIFM RBBBYBRM gm Tm, Pupey Nlu T6Yl hmemem 2M10n90NBINUPo6m601 R0meh091FR0wnue a 0 9MVFRvame W0 N.M.re Nme Qnmwh9 Bumm Tlq WeM PW W& RM SanW IWINYI P®k CaaRm LheW PeN aemM 64re MaPMnF FeuWSb Me59k IF WnOWaMpFmgMrM J nmWNnTmoam9BWBu9ceJ nmY119Bsixxe: R]4' 0%4ktl W iµNnl Ihi Scree YNeEw PW Vb Corebee Lisa Polk Crae TIFM6R mm 11,661,M6 2.5R2e11 R$764Eq P9232641 W.M9,i0B1 9,61g5@ 4.0Te,9M 4AN.216 4,M . M UMM 5.TM.7n 61117.570 UMAO0 @=.an e,e4l,1N 2A46029 7,459,Be2 7105o.706 9.N24tl 0.600,061 91066,219 N wWft S 2,5M,011 S ISIO,D5) S p27,4591 S 373,R4 S 875.005E 1,416,10 $ 1,99.333 S 2,490,497 $ 3,On,6M $ 9,109112 $ 407,n0 $ 07,Bn $ 401330 S 40I.036 $ 407m $ 47,030 $ 401,030 $ 407SU S 2IM 919 $ 74,979 S 0330 S 93.393 S 133,326 $ 1333N S 133.325 $ 133926 $ 1333n S R,676454 E - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - E - $ - S 139232541 $ $ $ $ $ $ S $ 7410.1M 5 RUAR 5 3n.774 S US= 5 1.416.1M E 1.9513M 5 2.M.497 S 3A3Im 4 : ):3,6M.964. RuugtlonB: 2013Fb Cw MlmeR - em" 3 :9aw Wrap aAwwllk§n.2013, Page AS2of33 FedapNl Cw. bee Plan Financial FmMllry Amanda TaN, 1& Vdsl Via IF 0Wk1 ftj. p :$wnado 3-opftsdc R.W. T6 Man 6¢w Ya%,WW 6toem nn TmNa PnPom Klu TohJ mw.wa mO Fyklwlry ,TFRan Ppnwit Rem.mmpnFRmru. 6a.Mfflw Vale 6a94rei calla. C9Rnlv6w VOW. pndWing omatd 719 Eon Alw Pan Con Rell Served lnkemel Pak We Am Linear Pak 9uemml Len Arw Pfm FFlenoW iwN0Bdy1461p1e t6 FW BYnw Fomatl) livemnW sRMPaw pluelmq 6v¢ Rail a,M kaAXaNa ePwaHk Q ,na kaatkmPMma IF Fund, wrnmp PliwN 11,551,8BB 2,552,811 Q816AU) 130232541 1B,5BB,]00) C hfillw R anptl6v ID13FatliwBCwNankea RYem O.atlT2 Sdew', 8akpell Cae Nea Pb.WRl�n, 2013. 619331246 7A41,W4 i,]N,922 B,1BB.IW S.M'a86 8Al2,438 B,3&],274 6,78&112 9Aeep67 9,903,895 toAil,i39 10,111571 11.127A09 1t A06,24] 11A43A86 12A6oA63 3580,824 $ 4121999 $ g663, 152 $ 5,204,915 1 5,I0.5p79 $ 6MM3 $ 8,021,807 $ 7368,9]0 Q7838 $ 4078A8 $ 407B30 $ 407.838 $ 407.839 $ 407,898 $ 407,838 $ 407,838 133326 $ 133326 $ 133326 $ 133,326 E 133,326 $ IMA26 $ 133,326 $ 133326 Page A33 of 33 Annex B: Public Park/Recreation Development Opportunities - Case Studies The Core Area is centrally located to substantial open space, parks, designated wild life areas and recreational areas. Woodland Park is a valuable community amenity, providing the community with active and passive recreation offerings. if the rail tracks were to be removed, the Core Area is poised to be Kalispell's central connective spine, providing safe pedestrian and bike trail access to regional trailheads to the North, South, East and West. To evaluate a range of potential programming uses for the proposed Kalispell Linear Park, the Willdan project team conducted case study research to find examples of low -capital intensity, revenue producing public amenities that could be developed within strategic "bump out" nodes within the park plan area. Willdan conducted research to identify relevant examples to develop a profile of the capital investment costs, operating costs and revenues, annual attendance requirements for such a public amenity. Willdan researched a range of conceptual uses to develop case study examples of facilities which might be determined appropriate as redevelopment concepts including: Nature Education Centers • Events Venue/ Outdoor Pavilion Facilities Greenbelt Trail Services and Amenities Based on Willdan's review of the potential land uses and the City of Kalispell's objectives to create a low -capital and low operating cost approach to furthering the revitalization objectives of the Core Area Plan, the following case study profiles were researched to provide high- level "Lessons Learned" for the City's consideration of future improvements to integrate the Linear Park land to adjacent commercial/mixed uses: • Portland Trails, Maine Potomac Overlook Regional Park Nature Center, Arlington, Virginia • Carolina Thread Trail & Cawtaba Lands Conservancy, North and South Carolina Portland Trails, Maine Willdan evaluated several greenbelt park/trail systems in the United States to evaluate the typical services, amenities, and operating structures. The Portland, Maine Trail maintains a 50-mile network of trailsinGreater Portland. Portland Trails offers "Lunch & Learns" to businesses and organizations in greater Portland in which staff travel to area businesses or they lead a Guided Trail Walk to educate employees about Portland Trails, the trail network, current projects. Portland Trails is also involved in school ground greening projects for students. Portland Trails collaborates with the Portland Public Health Department on a worksite fitness program for employees of area businesses. Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 60 * Last year over 1,000 people from 15 companies participated in the program. The purpose of the program is to encourage the use of the trails and awareness of the urban open spaces available for recreation and alternative transportation. The campaign markets Portland's opportunities for exercise in a scenic environment. Portland Trails also offers a range of events open to the public including guided trail walks with historical background, information on flora and fauna, and the trail -building process among other topics. Potomac Overlook Regional Park Nature Education Center, Arlington, Virginia The Potomac Overlook Regional Park (PORP) Nature Center, managed by the Northern Virginia Regional Park Authority, was established to provide residents and visitors with direct access to local historic and natural resources. The PORP site features unique interpretive exhibits housed within the nature center and woodland trails that lead through natural areas. Potomac Overlook Regional Park offers three miles of wooded trails and staff -led experiential learning programming just five miles from the center of Washington, D.C. The buildings and grounds are free and open to the public year round. The PORP Nature Center was opened in 1974. The initial capital investment costs were not available as the Nature Center facility is a 1,500 square foot preexisting reconverted historic bungalow house. Capital costs for maintenance and repair construction of the current park shelter/comfort station, auditorium, outdoor amphitheater and pavilion, and solar energy conversions is estimated at $100,000. Annual operating costs are approximately $265,000 (primarily for staff costs), of which approximately $20,000 is committed to annual capital costs for path maintenance, way finding, marketing, and signage. With annual attendance in the range of 25,000 visitors generate approximately $40,000 in operating revenues, primarily from birthday parties, weddings, canoe trips, and auditorium/shelter rentals. Elementary school groups also visit the Center as part of curriculum field trips for a modest fee. The park is anchored by its nature education center, a retrofitted mid- 20th century home from which PORP staff operate a range of community and environmental stewardship programs. The Nature Center includes a wide range of interconnected sustainability education programs/messaging boards, including: • Energerium: The main floor exhibit is devoted to exploring the interconnectivity of energy and living systems. • Auditorium: The bottom floor auditorium holds up to 50 people (open for birthday parties and other private functions) and features plant and animal exhibits. • Environmental Stewardship and Cultural Programs: Several environmental organizations, including Arlingtonians for a Clean Environment and the Arlington Regional Master Naturalists, are regular park stewards. In addition, the Nature Center regularly hosts school groups, scout groups, and local companies in educational programs including: • Volunteer Work Days (monthly, first Saturday) with indoor and outdoor projects around the park Kalispell Core Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 61 • Annual Earth Day Celebration (April 17) where volunteers plant trees and milkweed for monarch butterflies Open House & Heritage Festival (May 2), including music, food, exhibits, and games Free Summer Concerts (starting May 22) offering Saturday evening performances. Figure 40: Potomac Overlook Regional Park Environmental Stewardship Programming Carolina Thread Trail & Cawtaba Lands Conservancy, North and South Carolina Another example of a potential public investment that would serve to leverage the City of Kalispell's natural resources is the use of trail head and park branding/identification signage along the Carolina Thread Trail in North and South Carolina. Carolina Thread Trail is a network of regional trails that covers 15 counties in North and South Carolina. The goal is to link regional attractions, provide a place to experience a wide range of recreational activities such as walking, bicycling, and picnicking. Since the project was announced in 2007, local businesses have donated $50,000 in signage and services. Because the project uses many existing trails, some of which are already branded with their own community's identity, the challenge became identifying the Thread Trail in cooperation with the existing identity - not instead of it. Figure 41: Carolina Thread Trail Park Identification Signage Area Market & Feasibility Analysis Page 62 0 Working in conjunction with the Carolina Thread Trail, the Catawba Lands Conservancy, and a local designer the project team designed and installed multiple sign types to be used along the trails to further the trail community brand. The City of Kalispell should consider the Core Area Revitalization Plan process as an opportunity to adopted a refined community brand that could be further extended throughout the Kalispell Linear Park trail and the downtown Main Street, purposely connecting to a range of the proposed redevelopment options and programming opportunities by providing way finding, "wellness' information, recycling and sustainability messaging, or other community services (potentially at the Meridian Road/Appleway Trail comfort station). Based on a survey of a community trails in the United States reported by Rails to Trails (www.railstotrails.org), the trails can serve as a connector to a wide variety of income generating services and amenities, including: Restaurants Water Grocery Stores Restrooms • Camping Sites Phone • Bike Shop Repair/Bike Rental Internet • Vending/Retail Souvenirs/Gifts • Visitors Bureau Medical Services Shuttle Parking These uses provide a range of capital and operating intensity alternatives that could be employed at the proposed Meridian Road/Appleway Senior Recreation Comfort Station. The higher the programming/staffing intensity, the higher the need for quality branded wayfinding signage throughout the trail system to drive traffic (and earned revenue) to the center. & Feasibility Analysis Page 63