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Chapter 4 - Aviation ForecastsMASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kalispell City Airport Chapter 4 AVMTION F0HECA —M + 1 Introduction There are two (2) key elements for determining accurate and representative aviation forecasts for a particular airport: 1) baseline values for based aircraft, aircraft mix, local and itinerant operations, air taxi, and military operations; and 2) realistic expectation for rate of growth of each group. Of these two elements, determining the baseline data is both more critical and more difficult. Baseline aviation activity at the Kalispell City Airport was established from three (3) primary sources of information: 1) On -site data collection including based aircraft reporting, acoustic aircraft counts, and motion sensing photography; 2) the FAA's Terminal Area Forecast (TAF); and 3) responses obtained from a pilot's survey. 4.2 baseline Data The primary source of information used to establish baseline operations and aircraft mix at the Kalispell City Airport was on -site data collection. Based aircraft reporting in conjunction with acoustic counts of aircraft operations and motion sensing photography of aircraft were used to establish the baseline data for aircraft operations and fleet mix at Kalispell City Airport. On -site data was then evaluated and compared to the FAA's Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), responses from the pilot's survey, and conversations with the Sponsor and users of the airport. 4.2.1 On -Site Data Collection 4.2.1.1 Based Aircraft Reporting Since 2007, federally funded airports have been required to report actual N-numbers (registration numbers) of aircraft based at an airport. The FAA maintains the National Based Aircraft Inventory Program which is a database of reported N-numbers for based aircraft and other applicable aircraft and owner information at federally funded airports. The current report dated September 13, 2011 indicates that there are currently 82 based aircraft at Kalispell City Airport, seven (7) of which are seasonally based or based at more than one airport over the course of the year. The database also includes the dates when the aircraft were reported for that airport. This provides another tool for determining newly based aircraft at an airport. Unfortunately, there is no reporting of information for aircraft that are no longer based at that airport. A detailed listing of based aircraft with information on aircraft type, engine, primary use, and owner is included in Appendix E. Table 4-1 summarizes key information obtained from an analysis of the based aircraft reporting. The data in Table 4-1 indicates that there were at lease three new aircraft based at Kalispell City Airport each year. It does not tell us, however, what the net gain in aircraft is for each year. Since it is possible, and even likely, that one or more based aircraft were sold or moved, the net gain of based aircraft over the past four years is more likely one or two per year. Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 37 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kalispell City Airport TABLE 4-1 Based Aircraft Reporting Summary 2007 49 3 3 55 2008 5 0 3 _8_ 2009 2 1 0 3 2010 3 0 2 5 2011 1 11 1 1 1 -1 1 11 Total 1 70 1 5 7 82 SOURCE: National Based Aircraft Inventory Program, September 13, 2011 The data in the National Based Aircraft Inventory Program also includes the make and model of each based aircraft. A summary of based aircraft by type is presented in Table 4-2. 4 There are currently seventy-two (72) based aircraft which are classified as Approach Category A; and three (3) based aircraft which are classified as Approach Category B. Sixty-nine (69) of the based aircraft owners reside in Montana; thirteen (13) reside out-of-state. Of the State residents, thirty-five (35) are from Kalispell and additional thirty-four (34) are spread out through the Flathead Valley; three (3) are in Missoula, and the remaining one (1) in - State aircraft owner resides in Shelby. All single engine aircraft at Kalispell City Airport fall into ARC A-1, the most common being Cessna 172's and 182's. 4 One Group II aircraft, a Blanik L-13 Glider with a wing span of 53'-2" is based at Kalispell City Airport. Although all of the multi -engine aircraft presently based at Kalispell fall into the Design Group I category, there is potential for growth of Design Group II aircraft if the existing B-I facilities are upgraded to meet Design Group 11 standards. 4.2.1.2 Acoustic Counters An acoustic counter was installed at the Kalispell City Airport on September 21, 2010 and counted aircraft operations for one full year from the date of installation. An acoustic counter monitors sound levels at the airport and records/classifies each sound event by amplitude, duration, and other unique features. This process allows the counter to discriminate between aircraft takeoffs and other sources of sound with accuracy greater than 90 percent. Data obtained from the acoustic counter has been compiled for the full year of monitoring. The tabulated data is provided in Appendix F. The data has been reviewed and evaluated to establish the total baseline aviation operations at the airport. Since a qualifying sound event is consistent with a takeoff or a touch-and-go operation, landings would not be accounted for in the measured data. Because an aircraft operation is either a take -off, a landing, or a touch-and-go, the acoustic measured at the airport do not include operations associated with landings. The operations estimated from the acoustic counter data are summarized in Table 4-3. Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 38 MASTER PLAN UPDATE 1 " RIA F- Kabspe[[ City Airport TABLE 4-2 Summary of Based Aircraft by Type, Make & Mode[ ARC A-1 Aircraft Beechcraft Bellanca/Aeronca/Champion Variants 35 19 2 150 32'-10" 32'-9" 33'-5" 1 106 7 & 11 2 90 Cessna 1201140 2 105 32'-10" 150/152 7 100 32'-9" 170/172/175 17 110 35'-10" 180/182/185 14 119 35%10" 206 3 132 35%10" 210 1 141 36'-9" 310 1 167 37'-6" 337 1 142 38'-2" Ta larcraft BC-12 3 100 36'-0" Mooney M20 3 144-170 36'-1" Piper PA-18 1 100 35'-3" PA-20/22 2 100 29 %4" PA-28 7 105-143 30'-0" Experimental Various 3 1 74 31'-6" Ultra Light ChaIlen er II - rcraft_ Glider Blanik L-13 ! 1 53'-2" IU ARC B-I Aircraft Beechcraft 55 1 340 1 PA-31 1 188 37'-10" 38'-1" 40'-8" Cessna 229 Piper 200 Notary Aircraft Enstrom 2801^X 1 75 Schweizer/Hughes L 269C/369 3 80 Be[[ w6B 3 116 NA NA NA NOTE: Total number of based aircraft reported as 68 on 5010 form. An aircraft operation is defined as a takeoff, a landing, or a touch and go. Aircraft noise is only generated when an aircraft is operating close to full -throttle conditions. This typically occurs during takeoff and climb, cruise, and touch-and-go operations. Aircraft landings, on the other hand, are normally performed near idle conditions and therefore don't produce a noise event and are not recorded. The acoustical count data recorded 6,281 noise events at the airport during a full, one-year time frame. To ensure that the counters were recording the operations that they were intended to record (and not missing operations), visual observations were periodically documented during the data collection period and compared to the counts recorded by the acoustic counter. These visual Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 39 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport observations served to verify the validity of the data obtained from acoustic counters. This acoustic count number would therefore include takeoffs and touch -an -go operations only; landings would not be counted since they do not typically include a noise event. Therefore, an estimate must be made to account for landings and be included in the total operations estimate. This was done by assuming that 80 percent of the noise events recorded were takeoffs and the other 20 percent were touch-and- go's; an additional 5,025 operations were added to the count for landings. Based on this methodology, the total estimated operations for the one-year study period were 11,306. TABLE 4-3 Acoustic Operation COUTlts, 20I0-20II September 22-30 388 310 698 October 392 314 706 November 99 79 178 December 46 37 83 Janwa 81 65 146 February 203 162 365 March 72 58 _ 130 April 465 372 837 May 610 488 1,098 _ June 776 621 1,397 July August ! September 1-21 1,231 1,183 _.__... _ 735 985 2,216 946 2,129 1,323 588 Tota! 6�,z8i 51025 II/3o6 * Projected number of landings assumed to equal number of take -offs; take -offs assumed to be 80 percent of total operations count. ** Counter electronics became damaged on September 1, 2011; data is not available for September 1, 2011 through September 21, 2011. Counts for September 1, 2011 and September 21, 2011 were estimated from the average (35 per day) of the preceding 10 days and the final 8 days of September 2010. 4.2.1.3 Motion Sensing Cameras Motion sensing cameras were installed at each runway end to take photographs of aircraft entering or exiting either runway end. Since most aircraft exit the runway mid -field, the photos obtained should accurately capture predominantly the aircraft that depart the airport. The cameras can not count every aircraft operation; however the picture counts can be compared to the acoustical counter counts to verify rough magnitudes of operations and the types of aircraft operating at the airport. More importantly, the pictures can be used to establish the aircraft fleet mix using the airport and approximate the number of operations which occur from itinerant aircraft versus based aircraft. During the period from September 9, 2010 to September 21, 2011, there were a total of 2,973 aircraft images captured. The following are some of the key observations from these photographs: Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 40 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kalispell City Airport 95% of the aircraft using Kalispell City Airport are categorized as ARC A -I, with Cessna 172's and 182's being the most common. 4 58% of the aircraft photographs were of based aircraft; 42% were of itinerant aircraft. dl 34% of the aircraft photographs were of aircraft owned and operated by Red Eagle Aviation and used for flight instruction. 4 3% of the aircraft are twin -engine aircraft categorized as ARC B-I aircraft, with Piper Chieftan, Aztec, and Beechcraft Baron being the most common. %6 2% of the photographed operations were by helicopters. While rotary wing aircraft are required to use the airport traffic pattern to arrive and depart, it doesn't always happen. 4 Only two (2) turbine -engine aircraft were observed during this period, a Beechcraft 99 and a Piper Meridian both of which are categorized as ARC B-I. 4 No ARC B-II aircraft were observed during this period. vk No jet aircraft were observed during this period. 4.2.1.4 Fuel Sales Fuel sales are another tool that is useful for developing aviation forecasts. Although no direct correlation can be made between fuel sales and a specific number of aviation operations, fuel sales are a valuable tool to correlate a forecast model which is only based on one year of acoustic counts at the airport. Fuel sales records for both Avgas and Jet A were obtained from Red Eagle Aviation for the years 2007 through September, 2011. A summary of fuel sales at the Kalispell City Airport is presented in Table 4-4. TABLE 4-4 Summary of Fuel Sales at Red Eagle Aviation 2007-08 72,034 $3.44 Avg. 22,621 2008-09 67,816 $4.50 Avg. 23,487 2009-10 62,302 $3.34 Avg. 23,254 2010-11 58,382 $3.81 Avg. 24,606 * Reported Fuel Sales Annually from October through September. $3.99 Avg. $4.50 Avg. $2.66 Avg. $3.16 Avg. During this 4 year period, Avgas sales have steadily declined between 4,000 and 5,000 gallons each year. Throughout the four year period, Avgas sales are down approximately 19 percent. With the exception of the Avgas price spike in 2008, fuel prices have steadily increased throughout this period. Jet A sales, on the other hand, have remained very consistent while prices, although somewhat erratic, have actually fallen. Both of these trends indicate, as one would expect, that fuel sales are inversely related to fuel price. As price increases, sales decrease which should also serve as a trend for the direction of aircraft operations. During 2011, the cost of Avgas and Jet A has risen past $5 per gallon in most areas across the United States, with no signs of decline on the horizon. Given the numerous lawsuits being filed by environmental groups against the manufacture and sale of leaded Avgas, it can only be assumed that Chapter 4 Aviation FOR Page 41 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kalispell City Airport prices will continue to increase until a suitable direct replacement alternative is certified. Rising Avgas prices will affect future operations. One interesting observation when comparing fuel sales data to the based aircraft inventory, motion sensing camera photos, and the responses to the pilot's survey is that documented Jet A fuel sales are much higher than would be anticipated based on the expected fleet mix using the airport. In reviewing this information, there is only one (1) turbine engine aircraft and no jet aircraft based at the airport, only two (2) turbine aircraft were photographed over the course of the year, and from the pilot's survey, only eight (8) pilots using the airport reported flying turbine engine aircraft. This discrepancy is likely explained by two factors. First, the single based turbine aircraft is the Jet Ranger Helicopter operated by Red Eagle Aviation. This rotorcraft is a known "fuel hog" and is likely responsible for a significant amount of the Jet A fuel usage. The second factor would simply be missed aircraft operations from itinerant turbine engine aircraft. The Airport Manager has reported observing several turbine -engine aircraft on the field during the year that were not recorded by the cameras. These include several PC-12's, a Bonanza, a KingAir B200, and a twin -turbine Otter. There has also been occasional use by turbine -engine aircraft by Homeland Security and the military. 4.2.2 Terminal Area Forecasts and MSASP Inventory and Forecasting Update The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) is a forecasting tool used by the FAA to document aviation forecasts at federally funded airports. Information (Query June, 2011) estimates 81 aircraft based at Kalispell City Airport in 2011, remaining constant through 2030. Going back to 1991, the TAF shows the number of based aircraft growing from 64 to a forecast number of 81 in 2030. This represents an average growth rate of slightly less than one aircraft every two years. The Montana State Aviation System Plan (MSASP) System Forecasting document (1998-1999) estimates 74 aircraft based at Kalispell City Airport in 2010, increasing to 76 aircraft by 2020. This represents an annual growth rate of 0.20 percent in based aircraft over the 10-year period, or one new aircraft every 5-years. Based Aircraft Forecasts from the TAF and MSASP are summarized in Table 4-5. The Terminal Area Forecast separates aircraft operations into several categories including itinerant air carrier, itinerant air taxi, itinerant GA, itinerant military, local GA, and local military. Table 4-6 summarizes the general aviation operations forecast excerpted from the 2007 TAF for selected years. Copies of the 2011 TAF are included in Appendix G. There were no operations from air carrier aircraft predicted at Kalispell City Airport during the planning period. In comparison, the MSASP (1998-1999) also provides forecasts for general aviation operations. Table 4-7 summarizes the general aviation operations forecast excerpted from the 1998-1999 System Forecast. All forecast operations are GA aircraft. No passenger, cargo, or military operations are predicted. Copies of the 1989-1999 MSASP are also included in Appendix G. Chapter 4 Aviation Foriecasts Page 42 MASTER PLAN UPDATE - DRAFT Kabspell City Airport TABLE 4-5 Based Aircraft Forecast From TAF and MSASP Ycar TAF 1998-9 Mmitatia Statc Aviation Systcm Phut Inventory & Forecast WOMRS• SUURCE: 'Terminal Area Forecast (Query -June, 2011) and Montana State Aviation System Plan, 1998-9 Inventory and Forecasting Update. TABLE 4-6 Aircraft Operations Forecast From TAF I YU RF 1995 2000 11111crallt Alrl'�'tNi 6,000 6,400 Itinerant G A 1 __I 4 000 ................... Itinerant Military 1000 . . .... . ......... . ................... lx)c;tl A 12 00 . . . ..... .... 13,600 .... 33,100 . ...... .. . .... ............ 35,000 .......... 2005 6,400 ............... 2.000 15,000 38400 2010 5,400 15,000 2,000 2015 6.400 15 000 2.000 -1-8.,.00.0-_-,4.1.,.4.0.0.-- -1 2020 6,400 15,000 . . ..... ..... 2,000 . ........... . .... . 18000 ..... ....... 7 ... . .. . .......... 41,400 . ........... . . . 41.400 2025 6,400 1,5,099-11 ..... .... . * 21000 ** .. ........ ****'--'-- . 18.000 2030::j 6,400 15,000 2.000 18,000 41,400 TABLE 4-7 Aircraft Operations Forecast From /NASASP System Forecasting 1998 6,100 1,000 - _�_141000 6,715 1255 ... ....... ..... . 14,640 . . . . . . . . ...................... 15.200 13,600 35,000 .- - 3&070 2000 2005 14,220 14,800 . 6.810 1 .260 2010 6,905 15.800 15,350 39,320 2015 2020 7,000 1,275 7.095 1,280 16,400 J�,900 16.800 16.-4-0-. .401J75_ 41.575 Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 43 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kabspe[[ City Airport 4.2.3 Pilot's Survey Beginning in November of 2010 through early January of 2011, a survey of registered pilots in Flathead, Lake, Missoula, Lincoln, and Sanders Counties was conducted. The survey included a variety of questions intended to establish background information on the users of the airport as well as their assessment of existing facilities and needs. Key observations and conclusions of the survey are discussed in Chapter 5 of this report. As the pilot's survey pertains to aircraft operations and aircraft mix, two questions were asked to assess these parameters. Question 6 was included to help determine the critical aircraft using the airport. The questions were intended to determine the number of types of aircraft using the airport and not the number of operations from each type of aircraft. The results of these two questions are summarized in Table 4-8. TABLE 4-B Summary of Response on Aircraft Using Kalispell City Airport Single Engine, Piston -Single Engine, Turbine_ Multi Engine, Piston . ._.... _..............___._..._ 442 56 386 4 _ 0 4 - — ;-- 15 4 11 Multi Engine, Turbine 4 0 4 Jet - 0 ----- -� -0 -- 0 Helicopter Other 24 7 17 4 0 4 Total 493 67 4.26 SOURCE: Kalispell City Airport Pilot's Survey, 2010 4.2.4 Baseline Data Analysis Based on the multiple sources of information used to analyze and evaluate aircraft operations at the Kalispell City Airport, the baseline for aircraft operations at the Kalispell City Airport is established as follows: 1. Determine total number of operations counted at airport from acoustic counters; 2. Breakdown total operations into local operations and itinerant operations using based aircraft data and photographs; 3. Breakdown total operations into fleet mix using photography from motions sensing cameras; 4. Evaluate pilot's survey and fuel sales data to validate baseline data. 4.2.4.1 Combined Annual Aircraft Operations There is a significant discrepancy between actual field counts of aircraft operations and the forecast data estimated by the TAF and MSASP. The actual field count of 11,306 operations is far lower than the 41,000 by the TAF and MSASP. The big question is whether the data obtained over the 2010-2011 year is representative of a normal year; or is the lower number of operations an anomaly for the year. There are two potential explanations for this that may explain the discrepancy between Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 44 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — ORAFT Kafispeff City Airport the field counts obtained during this study and the forecasts developed in the 1999 Master Plan: 1. The original operations forecast in the 1999 Master Plan was estimated from based and itinerant aircraft operations reported on the FAA form 5010 Airport Master Record. The operations developed for the 5010 are based on national statistics and empirical models. For example, the number of estimated itinerant aircraft operations is the product between the number of based aircraft and a national average of 300 operations per based aircraft. With the current 82 based aircraft, the number of itinerant operations estimated with 300 operations per based aircraft would be 24,600, or twice the total number of operations actually counted at the airport. In this case it is obvious that national statistics are not realistic at this airport and will likely result in significantly higher operations estimates than are actually occurring. Therefore it can be concluded that the original operations estimate and forecast in the 1999 Master Plan were erroneously high and not representative of the actual number of operations occurring at the airport. 2. Poor weather conditions and economic recession were both factors during the 2010-2011 data collection period. Poor weather conditions have a seasonal impact on aviation operations while economic factors tend to have a more long term impact. Current economic factors, impact both baseline and long term forecasts. It would be expected that an economic recession combined with higher fuel prices would result in reduced aviation operations during the data collection period as well as future aviation activity provided the economic climate does not reverse. This distinction is important because it might explain, to a certain degree, some of the difference between the forecasts developed in the original 1999 Master Plan and the operations observed during the data collection period. If these acoustic counts had been performed during a strong economic climate, it is likely that the aviation activity during the past year would be higher. In contrast, unfavorable or abnormal weather conditions observed during the data collection period would result in a temporary decrease in actual aviation operations; essentially only impacting the time frame in which the poor weather occurred. As can be seen from the monthly breakdown of acoustic counts (Table 4-3), there were several months during the winter (November — March) where operations were significantly down. The winter of 2010/2011 was not a good period for VFR operations. Significant snowfall, fog, and clouds allowed for few days that were suitable for VFR flight. As a result, aviation operations were down, as a direct result of weather, during the data collection period. If not adjusted, the baseline data used to develop the forecast will be low and inaccurate. It can therefore be concluded that the acoustic counts recorded from November, 2010 through March, 2011 are likely lower than what would be expected in an average year. An adjustment is warranted for these months to correct for an abnormal weather condition. A reasonable approach to make an adjustment to the data for poor weather is to evaluate the data for trends during the winter months and make a reasonable correction to the data to reflect average winter operations. Data collected during these months generally shows that VFR weather restrictions occurred on specific days or stretches of several days. There were many winter days where conditions did not allow for VFR operations. Conversely, days which had VFR minimums had consistent aviation activity. The average number of daily operations on days with VFR conditions ranged from 5 per day in March to 13 in February. A reasonable correction to the data would be to increase the number days during the winter that would meet minimum VFR conditions of a more normal winter. Between November and March, there were only 55 days out of a possible Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 45 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kalispell City Airport 151 days that operations occurred on the airport (36 percent of the time). Assuming that a more normal winter season might provide for VFR conditions half of the time (50 percent) and using an average number for daily operations of 9.4, the estimated increase in winter operations from November through March would be 342 (1,269 estimated — 927 actual). The total baseline number of operations should be increased by 342 to correct for an unseasonably harsh winter for VFR conditions. Another available tool for estimating GA operations from the numbers of based aircraft, active aerial applicators, and active flight instructors operating on a given airport is an empirical formula outlined in the 1989 MSASP. This formula was based on the results of the ramp surveys taken (elsewhere than Kalispell City Airport) in August 1987: GA Operations = 1,000 + 175 (no. of based aircraft) + 200 (no. of aircraft aerial applicators) + 150 (no. of flight instructors) Applying this formula to the actual number of based aircraft (73) in 2011 and three (3) flight instructors, yields a GA Operations forecast of 14,225. (Assuming no aerial applicators are based at the Kalispell City Airport during the planning period.) This estimate is surprisingly close to the number of operations arrived at using the acoustic counts and lends supporting credibility to the counts. In consideration of the weather limitation during the 2010 to 2011 it is likely that the field counts would have been nearly the same if the weather had been more conducive to flying during this period. Based on this analysis, there is strong supporting data to establish the baseline operations forecast for the Kalispell City Airport at 14,000 per year. This is approximately 10 percent higher than the field counts and would account for the weather limitations observed during the counting period. 4.2.4.2 Local/Itinerant Aircraft Operations The FAA has recommended using 450 operations per based aircraft to estimate operations at very busy reliever airports. Rural/remote airports with little itinerant traffic should have about 250 operations per based aircraft. Kalispell City Airport, although a reliever airport, would not meet the FAA's designation as a very busy airport. Applying this rule of thumb to the number of based aircraft at Kalispell City Airport results in based aircraft operations ranging from 20,500 to 36,900 (using 82 based aircraft). Since this estimate far exceeds the total operations counts obtained with the acoustic counters, it can be concluded that these statistical averages are not representative of this particular airport. In order to develop quantify based aircraft and itinerant operations, data obtained from the motion sensing cameras was used to identify if photographed aircraft were based at Kalispell City or not. Most of the aircraft photos taken included the N-numbers of each aircraft. By comparing the N- numbers from the photographs to the based aircraft listing and quantifying the occurrence of each based aircraft operation, an estimate can be made on the proportion of based aircraft use to itinerant aircraft use. As indicated in Section 4.2.1.3, approximately 58 percent of the aircraft photographs were of based aircraft; 42 percent being itinerant aircraft. There is one discrepancy with this data; very few operations from based rotor craft were photographed. Since helicopters hover as they taxi above the surface and may not use the two runway end taxiways, most of these operations were missed by the cameras. Since there are six helicopters based at Kalispell City Airport and some of Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 46 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport them are used for flight training, there would be a significant number of operations from these aircraft. From interviews with Red Eagle Aviation staff, it is estimated that approximately 500 annual operations from helicopters would have been missed by the cameras. 4.2.4.3 Fleet Mix and Critical Aircraft Planning and design of an airport focuses on the airport's role, number of operations, and "critical" aircraft using the airport. The critical, or design aircraft, is the most demanding aircraft operating at an airport on a regular basis. Typically, a specific type of aircraft must have 500 or more annual operations to qualify as the critical aircraft. In determining the critical aircraft operating at Kalispell City Airport, both based aircraft and itinerant aircraft operations should be evaluated. Three (3) sources of information were used to develop the fleet mix for Kalispell City Airport: based aircraft inventory, airplane operation photography, and interviews with the Airport Manager and Red Eagle Aviation personnel. Based on this information, the predominant aircraft currently using Kalispell City Airport with at least 500 operations each year would be the ARC A-1 group of aircraft. All based aircraft are either ARC A-1 aircraft with the exception of three (3) B-1 aircraft; a Cessna 340, Beechcraft Baron 55 and a Piper PA-31. However, the primary tool used for establishing fleet mix was the database of aircraft photos taken at the airport which includes both itinerant and based aircraft operations. These photos capture a few different B-I aircraft operating that the airport but the frequency of operations was very limited; well below 100 operations this past year. In addition, there were no Design Group II aircraft photographed this year. There is a glider based at the airport that meets ACR A -I standards. Interviews with airport personnel indicate that historically, there has been some use of the airport by B-II aircraft. In past years, the USFS will occasionally operate an itinerant KingAir 200 at the airport. There have also been other reports of larger B-I1 aircraft using this facility in prior years. Based on these accounts, some provision will be included in the baseline fleet mix to account for some limited amount of B-II operations at Kalispell City Airport. Pulling this information together, the estimated operations broken down by ARC and aircraft class for 2011 are summarized in Table 4-9. TABLE 4-9 Estimated Aircraft Fleet Mix and Baseline Operations A -I (CE-172) A -II (PC-12) B-I (CE-340) 7,735 0 10 4,165 0 40 11,900 (}. 50 B-1I (KingAir C90) __......... _...... .................................... ..... _..-....._............. .... 0 _ 50 50 Rotorcraft 1,500 500 2,000 Total 9i100 41900 14,1000 4.2.4.4 Baseline Data Valuation The pilot's survey was also used in determining the aircraft fleet mix and baseline operations at Kalispell City Airport. Two survey questions were developed to determine the aircraft use at the airport. One question was intended to estimate the type of aircraft flown in and out of the airport; Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 47 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispeR City Airport the other question was intended to estimate the type of aircraft based at the airport. Responses are summarized in Table 4-8. The information collected from the Pilot's Survey is useful for confirming the fleet mix but has limited value for confirming operations of itinerant and based aircraft. Both questions, specifically asked for the type of plane flown to or based at Kalispell City Airport. Neither question asked for the estimated number of operations flown over the past year for each type of aircraft. Thus, the question has no value regarding frequency of operations. It does however, provide further support for the fleet mix observed at the airport. Most of the respondents indicated their aircraft were single - engine, piston aircraft with occasional use by helicopters and multi -engine, piston. There was also some use by turbine aircraft, both single -engine and multi -engine and other aircraft which most likely include gliders and ultra lights. There were no reported jet aircraft operations by any of the respondents. 4.3 Growtk Trends anJ Aviation rorecast The second component to developing an aviation forecast is to establish realistic expectations on the rate of growth of aviation at the facility. This evaluation is far more subjective than developing the baseline information and must include consideration of area demographics, population trends, local economic factors, community development plans, airport development plans, airport expansion capability, regulatory requirements, competition from nearby airports, and any other pertinent factors which may impact growth at an airport. One common tool used for forecasting is the regression analysis. A regression analysis uses historic data to establish a trend line which can then be used to "project or forecast" future growth or decline. A regression analysis is a valuable tool provided that the factors that drive future conditions are similar to the factors that established the historical data. Unfortunately it cannot account for future conditions that can significantly impact demand and use. The impact from many factors including future airport expansion, high fuel prices, or an economic recession would not be reflected in a regression analysis. Unfortunately the only way to address airport and time specific impacts are through subjective evaluation. A regression analysis is a useful starting point for establishing initial projections. Historical data was used to determine baseline growth for based aircraft, local operations, and itinerant operations. Once a linear rate of growth for each of these components was established, local factors were subjectively evaluated to determine if there would likely be an impact to the growth trend and, if so, by how much. Subjective factors evaluated for the Kalispell City Airport included area demographics, local economic outlook, nearby airports, fuel prices, regulatory compliance (low lead fuel), and airport expansion. 4.3.1 Area Demographics and Population Additional information including area economic and demographic statistics was also evaluated to establish regression trend lines to predict aviation growth through the planning period. Area population and demographics potentially affect aviation demand. Increasing population and/or business activity typically creates increased demand for infrastructure and transportation services, including aviation. The Kalispell Growth Policy of 2003 included a very comprehensive and detailed analysis of population and demographic trends for the State, County and City of Kalispell. Several key demographic indicators and trends documented in the Growth Policy that may have an impact on aviation forecasts are summarized as follows: Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 48 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Kalispell City Airport Documented population increase from 1990 to 2000 was 12.9% for State of Montana; 25.76% for Flathead County; and 19% for the City of Kalispell. 4 Projected population increase from 2000 to 2006 was 4.7% for the State of Montana; 14.6% for Flathead County; and 36.6% for the City of Kalispell. ,4 Flathead County has a projected population increase of 71% between 2000 and 2030.6 Population estimates for the County 91,750 for 2010, 108,910 for 2020, and 127,250 for 2030. • The City of Kalispell is not expected to continue growing at the high rate of approximately 6% per year but is likely to level off some and grow at an average annual growth rate of 3% up until 2025. The rural areas surrounding Kalispell are expected to grow at a slower rate of 1.2$ per year up until 2025. Obviously, the 2003 Growth Policy does not account for the recent recession that has had a significant impact on the Flathead Valley. Since this recession hit in 2008, there has been an observed housing decline in the City of Kalispell and Flathead County. This is likely an indicator that population growth has leveled off or possibly even declined over the past three years. Although not likely a permanent condition, it is a factor that should be accounted for in short term aviation forecasts. It is speculated that the current slow growth rate (or decline) of area wide population is having a similar impact to local aviation. It is expected that trends in aviation will generally follow the trends in area growth. 4.3.2 Local Economic Outlook The Flathead Valley and City of Kalispell supports a strong tourist industry. There are limitless outdoor recreation opportunities and spectacular scenery found in the many nearby mountain ranges, National Forest lands, numerous lakes, and Glacier National Park. Much of the business in the community caters directly to the tourist industry. Major employment sectors in the Kalispell area include health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, construction, and education services. The largest employers in the Kalispell area include Kalispell Regional Medical Center, Plum Creek Timber, Semi -Tool, Flathead Community College, Kalispell School District, and Teletech. Area economic forecasts generally follow similar trends as population growth. The recent recession has had a noticeable impact on area businesses. Since the recession began, there have been numerous layoffs and high unemployment. Many of the smaller local businesses, especially retail and food service have closed their doors. This sort of economic downturn is not expected to continue indefinitely, however, recovery is expected to be somewhat slower than the rest of the nation and the state. Again, this is a factor that must be considered when developing aviation forecasts at the Kalispell City Airport. It is expected that trends in aviation will generally coincide with economic trends in the community. 4.3.3 Nearby Airport Influence There is one large public airport and two (2) smaller public airports with general aviation service that are close enough in proximity to Kalispell City Airport to have an impact on aviation operations. 6 NPA Data Services, Inc. Chapter 4 Aviation Foriecasts Page 49 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — ORAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport Glacier Park International Airport is a large, commercial service airport located just eight nautical miles to the northeast. Whitefish Airport and Ferndale Airport are small, public airports with grass strips located within a 20 mile radius of Kalispell City Airport. These three airports have the potential to impact itinerant and based aircraft operations at Kalispell City. Ronan and Polson Airports, which are 29 and 38 nautical miles south-southeast of Kalispell respectively, also somewhat impact airport use, but to a much lesser degree. 4.3.3.1 Glacier Park International Airport Glacier Park International Airport, operated by the Flathead Municipal Airport Authority, is located six miles northeast of downtown Kalispell and eight nautical miles northeast of the Kalispell City Airport. Glacier Park International Airport is a commercial air service facility with approximately 25% of its air traffic generated from local general aviation; 39% from transient general aviation; 19% from air taxi; 13% from commercial; and 3% from military. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) categorizes the airport as a Primary, Non -Hub under the FAA's National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). The Airport is currently served by three air carrier and commuter airlines: Allegiant Airlines, Horizon Air (Alaska), and SkyWest Airlines (operating United SkyWest and Delta Connection); as well as by several all -cargo airlines: Federal Express and UPS. The airport averages 80 landings and takeoffs per day. In addition, two aviation businesses operate on leased airport property including: 4 Glacier Jet Center — Full Service FBO .k Rocky Mountain Aircraft Services — Aircraft Maintenance and Avionics GPI is serviced by two runways, Runway 2/20, a 150-foot wide by 9,007-feet long paved runway with a full-length parallel taxiway, and Runway 12/30, a 75-foot wide by 3,504-foot long paved crosswind runway. Runway 2/20 is rated for heavy aircraft weight 250,000 pounds with dual tandem landing gear, 170,000 pounds with dual wheel landing gear and 80,000 pounds with single wheel landing gear. Runway 12/30 is rated for light aircraft weighing 12,000 pounds or less. GPI has published instrument procedures for ILS, RNAV (GPS and RNP), and VOR approaches on Runways 2 and 30. This airport is also classified as Class D Airspace, with an operating control tower controlling the airspace within 4 nautical miles and 2500 feet above ground level around the airport. Given the all weather capability and long runway at Glacier Park International, it makes an attractive alternate airport to the larger, twin engine light aircraft (Cessna 310's, Beechcraft Baron's, Piper Seneca's) and jet aircraft. However, the single engine aircraft that are most commonly seen at Kalispell City Airport are likely to continue using this facility provided the facility is maintained and/or upgraded and aircraft storage remains available. 4.3.3.2 Whitefish and Ferndale Airports Whitefish and Ferndale Airports are two (2) nearby airports with turf runways. Both airports are public and offer an alternative to local area pilots other than GPI or Kalispell City Airport. Whitefish Airport is a small airport near the City of Whitefish and is owned and operated by the Flathead County Airport Authority (Glacier Park International Airport). It is a small facility with a 75 foot by 2,560 foot turf runway; there are only three (3) based aircraft at this airport. Ferndale Airfield is situated southeast of Big Fork and has a 95 foot by 3,500 foot turf runway; there are 35 based aircraft. Ferndale Airfield also has numerous hangars constructed at the airport with Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 50 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport additional capacity for more hangar development. Because both of these facilities have turf runways, their primary attractant is location. Neither of these facilities is likely to draw users away from Kalispell City Airport unless the facilities are not maintained and become a safety hazard. 4.3.4 Fuel Prices It would be expected that higher fuel prices would deter aviation activity. This does apparently appear to be the trend. Over the past 4 years, as fuel prices have steadily raised, fuel sales have steadily declined; being down approximately 19 percent over this time frame. Jet A sales, on the other hand, have remained very consistent while prices, although somewhat erratic, have actually fallen. Both of these trends indicate, as one would expect, that fuel sales are inversely related to fuel price. As price increases, sales decrease which should also serve as a trend for the direction of aircraft operations. Since expectations are that fuel prices will continue to increase throughout the planning period, it is likely that there will be a negative impact on aviation forecasts. 4.3.5 Regulatory Compliance The primary regulatory concern with regard to future aviation at Kalispell City Airport is the environmental push for national regulation that would abolish low -lead Avgas. The probability of regulation that would prohibit low -lead fuel from being sold and used for aviation in the United States has been driving research to develop alternative aviation fuels for several years. The impact of an alternative fuel to general aviation is not fully known at this time but it would likely result in a decrease in general aviation activity. The reason for this is simply cost. Any alternative fuel will likely require costly conversions of existing piston aircraft engines that will deter many casual pilots. Alternative fuels will likely cost more to produce which will translate into higher costs at the pump. Although the timing of new regulations is unknown, there is certainty that it is just a matter of time before low -lead fuel is not legally available. Any regulatory -required fuel conversion would likely result in increased fuel prices. As concluded above, high fuel prices result in aviation trends that reduce or limit operations. 4.3.6 Airport Expansion The Kalispell City Airport is presently an ARC B-I facility. If the airport were expanded to B-II requirements it would likely attract more B-II aircraft. With its present limitations in runway and taxiway width, many larger aircraft are deterred from using the airport, especially with GPI being an alternate airport in such close proximity. If Kalispell City Airport were upgraded to B-II standards, it would likely attract some of these operations due to its convenience and close proximity to Kalispell's City Center. There is not likely to be much of an impact to smaller, B-I aircraft however. The airport's current facilities are not really a deterrent to these aircraft. A similar conclusion would result from an increase in runway length. Kalispell City Airport's current runway length is a deterrent to faster, higher performance aircraft using the airport. If the runway were lengthened, it would be expected that more of the higher performance aircraft would use the airport on a more frequent basis. 4.3.7 Aviation Forecast Trends 4.3.7.1 Based Aircraft Projections From the past few years of based aircraft counts, the number of based aircraft appears to be growing Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 51 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — L?RAFT Kalispell City /airport at a rate of 1 to 3 aircraft per year. Since this rate of growth has been occurring in spite of the poor economic climate, there does not seem to be any other, immediate factors which would cause it to plateau or decline. Over the next 5 years, it is expected that the number of based aircraft will continue to increase by approximately 2 new aircraft each year. Looking further out, there are other factors that may impact based aircraft growth. The primary factor would be airport expansion. If the airport were expanded to ARC B-1I dimensional standards, it would likely attract additional aircraft, provided hangar and tie -down facilities were readily available. It is not unrealistic to anticipate a doubling of the growth rate if the facilities were upgraded. Using the linear regression tool on the based aircraft data from the TAF (from 1990 to 2010) results in a based aircraft growth rate of one new aircraft every two years (y-intercept=-970; x- coefficient=0.52). This rate of growth is lower than what has actually been observed at the airport over the past few years but it is more realistic and sustainable for the duration of the planning period. Surprisingly, the linear regression method calculates the number of based aircraft in 2011 to be 72 which is consistent with the based aircraft counts (69 full-time and 4 part-time) in December, 2010. There has been, however, a significant increase in based aircraft over the past 12 months. During this time frame, 82 aircraft have been verified based at Kalispell City Airport; an increase of 9 new aircraft over the past 9 months. This increase is believed to be an anomaly as there appears to be no external factors supporting the increase. Total based aircraft forecasts have been extrapolated using a regression analysis from the available data to predict based aircraft counts through the year 2030. Table 4-10 summarizes the based aircraft forecast for the planning period. Total based aircraft forecasts were calculated from the regression equation; the breakdown of based aircraft types was subjectively determined utilizing the 5010 data from 2011 as a starting point. An increase in multi -engine aircraft has been projected in 2020 as a result of a possible expansion to B-I1 design standards at the airport. Ref. Table 4-1 Chapter 4 Aviation FUMCBSTM Page 52 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — LYWAFT Ka[ispel[ City Airport TABLE 4-1 O Based Aircraft Forecast 2011 70 4 0 0 7 7 1 1 82 2015 72 4 84 2020 72 7 0 7 1 87 2025 73 8 0 8 1 90 2030 75 8 0 8 1 92 2iUUAC;L rorecast number of based aircraft jor years 2010 through 2030 calculated from regression analysis (y- intercept = -970; x-coefficient = 0.52) 4.3.8 Aircraft Operations Forecast An aircraft operation is any aircraft movement on a runway such as a landing, a take -off, or a touch- and-go. The number of operations, rather than the number of flights or trips, determines the level of airport activity. No formal log of actual airport operations at the Airport exists. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) is the primary tool used by the FAA for developing aviation forecasts. However, other forecasting tools were used, for comparison purposes to the forecasts in the TAF. In developing aviation forecasts, the FAA provides the following guidance for the forecast review process established under FAA Order 5090.3C: "Forecasts supplied bU the airport spovLsor should ort vary (vu.ore thaw ion) from the FAA's forecast. VvhevL a spovLsor's forecast does vary sigmL ficavutLU frovu. the FAA's forecast, the spovLsor's vu.ethodoLogU should be verified, the forecast cooro( �Clted with APo-zso, avud ovLLU after the dLf ferev�ce Ls resoLved avid the FAA Cs satisfied that the spovLsor's forecast is vaLid wiLt spovLsor's forecast be iv rLuded iw the NPIAS. IvL the absevLce of other forecast ivy forw&atiov�., data from FAA's forecast are i"[L,cded ivt the NT>(AS database. WhevL FAA forecast data are vLot avaiLabLe (usuaLL� a proposed airport) the master pLavL forecast should be vaLidated 29,2ivLst FAA's regq ov�,21 forecasts, avO if appropriate, cooro( vLAed with AP0-120." As noted earlier in this chapter, there is a significant discrepancy from the operations forecast by the TAF and the operations counted over the course of a full year at the airport. Actual aircraft operation counts on -field only report approximately 11,306 operations compared to the 41,400 forecast by the TAF. Since there is no reason to challenge the acoustic counts at the airport, it is likely that the TAF estimates have been over -projecting aircraft operations at this facility. Thus, forecasts developed in this study will be based on the baseline data obtained in the field and adjusted for specific seasonal anomalies as previously described in Section 4.2.4. The operations data in both the TAF and MSASP do have value for developing trend line information, however. Using the linear regression tool on the aircraft operations data from the MSASP (from 1998 to 2020) results in an operations growth rate of 0.71 percent or approximately 278 operations per year (y-intercept=-518,875; x-coefficient=278). The TAF data provides for a growth rate which is more than double the MSASP rate at 1.55 percent or 553 operations per year Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 53 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport (y-intercept=-1,096,440; x-coefficient=566). With a projected population growth rate for Kalispell of approximately 3 percent per year, both projected trends are below the growth rate of the local community; with the estimates from the MSASP being well below the local rate. Considering the economic factors affecting aviation operations, primarily fuel prices, it is reasonable to conclude that aviation growth trends would be less than population growth trends. The growth trend estimated from the data in the MSASP appears to be very low which does not seem to coincide with recent growth in based aircraft. Therefore, the growth estimated from the data in the TAF should be more reasonable and accurate and will be used for developing the forecasts in this study. Total aircraft operations forecasts have been extrapolated using a regression analysis from the TAF data to predict total aircraft operations through the year 2030. The regression equation was adjusted to modify the y-intercept in order to meet the baseline operations of 14,000 established for 2011. Table 4-11 summarizes the operations forecast for the planning period. Total aircraft operations forecasts were calculated from the regression equation beginning with an adjusted operations baseline of 14,000 operations per year. This baseline value is slightly higher than the actual field counts obtained in 2010 and 2011 to account for poor weather conditions during the counting period. Using a y-intercept of-1,124,226 and an x-coefficient of 566 total aircraft operations were established for the planning period. The breakdown of local and itinerant operations was based on the ratio of observed aircraft photographed at the airport during the observation period. Sixty-five (65) percent of the operations were estimated to be local while the other 35 percent were itinerant. TABLE 4-1 1 Aircraft Operations Forecast • 2011 9,100 4,900 E 14,000 2015 10, 572 1 5.692 16, 264 2020 12L411 683 19 094 2025 14, 251 _ 7 673 21,924 2030 1 16.090 8,664 1 24,754 SOURCE Forecast number of operations for years 2010 through 2030 calculated from regression analysis (y-intercept =--1,124,226; x- coeffcient = 566) adjusted for baseline operations of 14,000 per year 4.3.9 Critical Aircraft Forecast Although the current forecasts only support a critical aircraft consistent with ARC A -I, the number of operations from Approach Category B aircraft is very close to the 500 operations threshold and should be adopted as the current Approach Category for this airport. The number of estimated operations from Design Group 11 aircraft is, however, well below the threshold to support an increase in standards at the airport at the present time. However, conditions are changing frequently at this airport and one new based aircraft or itinerant aircraft with substantial operations in the B-II category would be sufficient to warrant ARC B-II standards. Runway width and length are likely the predominant factors limiting operations from larger and higher performance aircraft at Kalispell City Airport. Standard Operating Procedures require pilots to calculate the required length of runway needed for their particular aircraft at each specific airport Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 54 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport and under the expected environmental conditions they will be flying. For higher performance aircraft, the current runway length of 3,600 feet is a deterrent to using this airport so most pilots would choose to use Glacier Park International Airport. This is likely true for larger aircraft also. Although Design Group 11 aircraft could conceivably operate at Kalispell City Airport, most pilots would prefer the wider runways and navigational amenities available at GPI. It is probable; however, that improvements made to widen and lengthen Runway 13/31 at Kalispell City would increase activity from larger and higher performance aircraft, possibly attracting some of the operations from aircraft presently using Glacier Park International Airport. A final element to consider in determining the critical aircraft to support future development at Kalispell City Airport is the long range planning goal for this important general aviation facility. Kalispell City Airport is presently very user-friendly to pilots flying small, single -engine aircraft. Improvements that widen and lengthen the existing runway are likely to attract a greater number of operations from both itinerant aircraft and based aircraft in this higher performance aircraft category. This may not be a desirable goal for the Airport Board or current users of the Kalispell City Airport at this time. A significant increase in activity from this group of users may result in competition for limited facilities on the Airport and ultimately diminish Kalispell's moniker as being "small aircraft friendly". It may be advantageous for Kalispell City Airport to continue targeting small aircraft users by planning for development that predominantly benefits this smaller category of aircraft. Glacier Park International Airport would be able to support the aviation needs of more demanding aircraft users. In summary, the critical aircraft at Kalispell City Airport with a minimum of 500 annual operations is typical of aircraft in Approach Category A and Design Group I (ARC A-1). However, planning should account for an increase in design standards to the next level of approach category and design group if possible. Approach Category B standards will likely be warranted in the near future and all planning, design, and future development should meet the requirements for ARC B-I design standards. The timing or the need to upgrade to Design Group II standards is not as certain. During the past year, very few aircraft meeting Design Group II standards used this airport. Documented operations were well below the 500 annual operations needed to justify a DG-II facility. Historically, there is reported used by these larger aircraft but it does not seem to be consistent year to year. It is very likely though that if the facilities were expanded to DG-I1 standards that operations from these types of aircraft would increase. Therefore, for a similar reason as stated above, the Kalispell City Airport should plan development consistent with a future upgrade to DG-II standards. 4.4 Conclusions Kalispell City Airport is located in the busiest aviation corridor in the state of Montana; Kalispell to Hamilton. This corridor includes commercial airports Glacier Park International and Missoula International; and general aviation airports Kalispell City, Polson, Ronan, St. Ignatius, Stevensville, and Hamilton. The Kalispell City Airport is servicing primarily small (less than 12,500 lbs) aircraft typical of the Cessna 170 and 180 Series. The critical aircraft is currently consistent with the criteria for ARC A-1 aircraft. Long range planning for the Kalispell City Airport should take into consideration the present mix of users at the Kalispell City Airport and establish development goals which continue to support this Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 55 MASTER PLAN UPDATE — DRAFT Ka[ispe[[ City Airport group of users. Current aviation trends in Flathead County indicate that Glacier Park International Airport, 8 nautical miles to the north, is able to support aircraft use typical of corporate and business jet aircraft operating without runway length limitations. Glacier Park International Airport is also able to accommodate higher performance or heavier aircraft that exceed the facility requirements at Kalispell City Airport. The Sponsor should establish planning and development goals for Kalispell City Airport which target small aircraft users typical of ARC B-I while at the same time making every effort to protect for the necessary improvements which would allow for a future upgrade to ARC B-II. Chapter 4 Aviation Forecasts Page 56