15. Population, Employment, Earnings & Personal Income TrendsIII � I I IILL
14
MMI
Sonoran Institute
Northwest Office
201 S. Wallace
Bozeman, Montana 59715
Tel (406) 587-7331
Fax (406) 587-2027
www.sonoran.org
April 30, 2002
Flathead County, MT
Objectives
Summary Findings
P-1
Population Trends
P-3
Employment Trends
P-5
Personal Income
P-9
Trends in Earnings Per Job
P-12
Another Way to Look at Industry Groupings
P-13
Non -Labor Sources of Income
P-15
Agriculture
P-17
Commuting
P-19
Business Establishments by Size
P-20
Unemployment Trends
P-21
Data Sources
P-22
Methods
P-23
Glossary
P-27
Flathead County, MT
Population
• From 1970 to 1999 Flathead
County, MT grew by 33,057
people, a 83% increase in
population.
Net Income Growth
or Decline by Major
Category
• From 1970 to 1999 the
fastest growing component of
personal income, in real
terms, was from Non -Labor
Sources.
• The second fastest
component was Services and
Professional.
Average Earnings
• Average earnings per job, in
real terms, dropped from
$28,288 in 1970 to $22,392
in 1999.
80
70
60
rn
50
`a 40
rn
L 30
F-
20
10
0
^I r\� I� I� 1� 1� Ic 1� 1� 1� 1� 1� 15 1� 1�
.11
500
ca
tv —
E o0
M 400
— am
N 0 300
`m 0
� ,o
200
iI1If
0
NI Nq, Nq Aq N011 NO, Ncb �� N(:b Ncb �� Ncb Ncb Noi
CO $35
0 $30
OR $25
to
w $20
0
�
$15
CO $10
0
0 $5
s
C $-
,`O 1� 1X 0 '�4' 4�° R>rl' 0� 'brO 4`b C° �rl' ��` �rO 0�
Nq
Average wage and salary disbursements
- - - Average earnings per job (dollars)
— - Average nonfarm proprietors' income
72,773
Non -Labor
Sources
(investments,
retirement,
etc.)
Services and
Professional
�— Manufacturing
(Ind. forest
products)
"06*000"mGovemment
—X construction
-*—Farm and Ag.
Services
Mining
23,342
22,392
14,299
P-1
Flathead County, MT
Components of
Transfer Payments
• In 1999, 69% of Transfer
Payments were from age -
related sources (retirement,
disability, insurance
payments, and Medicare).
6% was from welfare.
Net Farm Income
• Net income from farming and
ranching dropped from $11
million in 1970 to -$1 million
in 1999.
New Firms by
Employment Size
1990 to 1999
• From 1990 to 1999 the
majority of new businesses
established in Flathead
County, MT were small, with
fewer than 20 employees.
Annual Average
Unemployment Rate
Comparing County to
State
• In 2000, the unemployment
rate in Flathead County, MT
was 6.1 %, compared to
4.9% for the state and 4.0%
for the nation.
20.0
L
C0 15.0
0
10.0
5.0
0
v, -
c
(5.0)
(10.0)
w
aD
a�
a
0
Q
E
w
0
L
M
E
3
z
1999
Age -related
(Retirement,
Disability &
Medicare)
69%
Income
Maintenance
(Welfare)
6%
Other
25%
,�O ^r ^b` ^b ^Cb �O �N JCL �b �W �(Z) �N
1000 or more
500-999
250-499
100-249
50-99
20-49
10-19
5-9
1-4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Number of Firms
R� °0, 5P °� °,1 �0 0A °(b 0°' °°
0 0 0 0 0 ' 4 ' C 'moo'' 0 0 `L°
County - - - State -- - United States
P-2
Age Breakout in
2000
The median age in
Flathead County, MT is
39.0 years old,
compared to 37.5 in
the state and 35.3 in
the nation.
Trends
Retirement age
category has been
stable.
Race Breakout
Race is broken out two
ways. The Hispanic
breakout is separate
because Hispanics can
be of any race.
Household Type
• Flathead County, MT
has a higher owner
occupancy rate than
the state.
18%
16%
14°%
12%
10°%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
o o� A� o� o� o� o� o��§
h� h� c�` p� 1b 5� 4r
%
% of
% Chg 1990 -
% Ghg per Yew
1990
Total
2000 % of Total
2600
1990 - 2t100
Population
59,218
74,471
26°%
26°%
Male
29,316
50%
36,911
50%
26%
2.6%
Female':
29,902
50%
37,560
60%
26%
2.6"%
llnder the; age of 20
18,068
31°%
21,186
28%
65:years arld over
7,716
13°%
9,656
13%
Median Aqs
39.0
County o of Total
State
% of Total
White
71,689
96.3%
817,229
90.6%
Black or AfricanAinerican...
113
0.2%
2,692
0.3%
Arr�ericanandian &Alaska Native
856
1.1%
56,068
6.2%
ASian
346
0.5%
4,691
0.5%
Native Hawaiian &:Other. Pacific lsMer
44
0.1%
470
0.1'%
Someotherrace :i
305
0.4%
5,315
0.6%
Two or more races:
1,118
1.5%
15,730
1.7%
His parnc,orLatmo4ofAny ;race ).
1,061
1.4%
18,081
2.0%
Not. Hispanic or Latino
73,410
98.6%
884,114
P-3
Population
From 1970 to 1999
Flathead County, MT
grew by 33,057 people,
a 83% increase in
population.
Compared to
State and the
Nation
Since 1970, the
population in Flathead
County, MT has grown
faster than the state and
faster than the nation.
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
C
CO
40.0
0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
I� I� I� 'I', 1� 1o� "C"i
2.00
1.80
u 1.40 t
0 1.20 -
_
r' - ---
1.00
a�i 0.80
x
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
United States - - - Montana -Flathead County, MT
P-4
Flathead County, MT
Job Growth
(See next page)
• From 1970 to 1999, 31,277
new jobs were created.
• Services and Professional
accounted for 23,395 new
jobs.
• Construction accounted for
3,172 new jobs.
Jobs 1970 & 1999
• In 1970, the largest
employment sectors were
Services and Professional
(53%) and Manufacturing
(incl. forest products) (21 %).
• In 1999 the largest
employment sectors were
Services and Professional
(67%) and Manufacturing
(incl. forest products) (10%).
1970
Services and
Professional
52.8%
1999
Services
Professic
67.5%
Construction
4.3%
Construction
ent
Farm and
Agricultural
Services
5.8%
Mining
0.3%
cturing (incl.
products)
11 4%
Government
Rio
Farm and
kgricultural
Services
3.9%
Mining
0.4%
lanufacturing (incl.
forest products)
10.2%
P-5
Flathead County, MT
Services &
16.0
Professional
14.0
The fastest growing
Services
categories under Services
and Professional are-
10.0
- - - Retail trade
4, o ,
Services (which includes
o
8.0
- -
-Finance, ins.
health, business, legal,
& r, estate
engineering and
6.0
management services)
°
'
"' "'"'Transport. &
represent 32% of total
, '
pub. utilities
employment in 1999.
4.0
-X Wholesale
trade
2.0
3f ' X4
Retail Trade accounts for
0.0
21 % of total employment.
Ao Art. 1lx ,`ro ,`2> �o %rO
Employees vs.
35
Proprietors
33.286
30
From 1970 to 1999, the
majority of job growth, 68%
25
of new jobs, has been in
Wage and
wage and salary employment
a
20
salary
(people who work for
o
someone else).
-
- - Proprietors
15
__
Employment of proprietors
10
contributed to 32% of new
employment from 1970 to
5
1999. In 1970, proprietors
represented 22% of total
0
employment; by 1999, they
,\o Ali 1� 10 1lo �O ��. _ro %10 c o,`t. 0 orb p
represented 29%.
�°� No No' N.o No °b ^o N°' �°� �°� N6 1No N°' 10 0
Proprietors include sole ownerships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives.
Wage and salary employment refers to employees.
P-6
Flathead Countv. MT
35
30
rn
IS 25
m
O
f✓ 20
N
a
E 10
z
5
0
13 0� �h �N �3 �h b1
Services and
Professional
- - - Manufacturing (incl.
forest products)
■ Government
Construction
- X Farm and
Agricultural Services
�-Mining
1970
% of
Total
1999
% of
Total
New
Employment
% of New
Employment
Total Employment
15,627
46,904
31,277
Wage and Salary Employment
12,143
77.7%
33,286
71.0%
21,143
67.6%
Proprietors' Employment
3,484
22.3%
13,618
29.0%
10,134
32.4%
Farm and Agricultural Services
899
5.8%
1,823
3.9%
924
3.0%
Farm
730
4.7%
1,051
2.2%
321
1.0%
Ag. Services
169
1.1 %
772
1.6%
603
1.9%
Mining
40
0.3%
210
0.4%
170
0.6%
Manufacturing (incl. forest products)
3,345
21.4%
4,799
10.2%
1,464
4.6%
Services and Professional
8,258
52.8%
31,653
67.5%
23,395
74.8%
Transportation & Public Utilities
1,327
8.5%
2,108
4.5%
781
2.5%
Wholesale Trade
501
3.2%
1,169
2.5%
668
2.1%
Retail Trade
2,831
18.1%
9,722
20.7%
6,891
22.0%
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
1,115
7.1%
3,855
8.2%
2,740
8.8%
Services (Health,
Legal, Business, Others)
2,484
15.9%
14,799
31.6%
12,315
39.4%
Construction 674 4.3% 3,846 8.2% 3,172 10.1%
Government 2,411 15.4% 4,573 9.7% 2,162 6.9%
Agricultural Services include soil preparation services, crop services, etc. It also includes forestry services, such as reforestation
services, and fishing, hunting, and trapping. Manufacturing includes paper, lumber and wood products manufacturing.
P-7
Flathead County, MT
- Federal, civilian- - - Military---+-- State and local
P-8
Flathead County, MT
700
--
'+.....'.�"
Non -Labor
Sources
(investments,
600
retirement,
00
etc.)
+ + +
Services and
Professional
500
i
O
-
Manufacturing
v 400
wi(Incl.
forest
products)
eNO
-
O 300
0
or-•-
.i
.:..
Government
�
C
200
+ i
_..-yf -•Construction
100
o. {�: ..... .. .:
Fl
^^^�-rvi and Ag.
...
.... : :
;:
Services
Se
0
JI� A �f0 �
�� �� �� OJT OJ�
�� ��
Mining
% of
% of New Income:
_ .
Total in
Total in :
1970 to
°% of New
All. figures in,millions:of 19991dollarIs
1970
1970
1999
1999
1999
Income
Total Persona(Incone"
592
1,620
1,028
Farm and Agricultural Services
18
3.0°%
13
0.8%
-1016
Farm
14
2.4%
3
0.2%
A
Ag. Services
3
0.6%
10
0.6%
Mining
2
0.3%
6
0.4%
5:
0.4%
Manufacturing (�ncl. forest products)
122
20.6%
164
10.1 %
42f
4%
Services and Professidfiall.
210
35.4%
616
38.0%
406:
39%
Transportation & Public: Utilities
55
9.2%
77
4.7%
22
2°G
Wholesale Trade
17
2.9%
31
1.9%
14
1%
Retail Trade
70
11.8%
144
8.9%
74
7%
Finance; Insurance & Real Estate
13
2.2%
70
4.3%
58!
6%
Services (Health, Legal, Business; Otbers)
55
9.3%
294
18.1 %
239
- 250b
Construct -ton
25
4.1 %
100
6.2°%
76
7%
Government
66
11.2%
152
9.4%
85
- 8%
Non -Labor income
156
26.3%
660
40.7%
5t15
490%
Dividends, Interest & Rent
94
15.9°%
418
25.8%
324
32%
TransferiPavments
62
10.4%
242
14.9%
18:0
1.8%
*The sum of the above categories do not add to total due to adjustments made for place of residence and personal contributions for social
insurance made by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
P-9
Flathead County, MT
Net Change by Major
600
Category
$505
500
• From 1970 to 1999 Flathead
n
`—°
400
$406
County, MT added $1,028
F
million in personal income, in
c
300
real terms.
rn
— rn
m
0 0
200
U) U)
c
a- 0
100
$76
$85
• Non -Labor Sources accounted
$42
$5 _.
for 49% of new income.
0
-
$(5)
-100
_
-
¢c
c
o°'y �c� roc
o
o0
• The second fastest growth was
c�0J`
in Services and Professional
Q Uoc
v
cameo;
p
v
=oc
3c�
G'oc'
New Income by Type
1970 & 1999
• In 1970, Non -Labor Income
sources represented 26% of
total personal income. By
1999, they comprised 41 %.
• In 1999, Dividends, Interest and
Rent represented 26% of total
personal income. Transfer
Payments comprised 15%.
Um
Labor income
59%
nividends,
est & rent
26%
ansfer
yments
15%
Non -Labor
Income
Non -Labor Income includes Transfer Payments (primarily related to retirement)
and Dividents, Interest and Rent (money earned from past investments).
P-10
Flathead County, MT
Per Capita Income
• Per capita income, in
real terms, increased by
10% from 1990 to 1999.
Population (Thousands)
Per Capita Income
1970
1980
1990
1999'
of
% of
% of
% of
% of
Charge
1970
Total
1980
Total
1990
Total
1999
Total:
9U 99
592
984
1,204
1,620
35%
578
98%
976
99%
1,199
100%
1,618
100%
86%
14
2%
8
1%
4
0%
3
0%
-41%
39.7
52.1
59.5
72.8
22%
14,912
18,900
20,219
22,265
10af',
Note: Population estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis vary slightly from those in the Census (Page P-3).
Sources of Labor
Income
• In 1999, proprietor's
AtHincome1wrnillions of
1999 dollars
1970
1970
% of
Total
1980
1980
% of
Total
1990
1990
% of
Total
1999
1999 =
% of
Total
"%
Change
90-9H
Labor Sources
income accounted for
Wage and Salary
325
55%
499
51%
548
46%
777
48%
420,6
11 % of total personal
Other Labor Income
24
4%
64
6%
78
6%
93
6%
19%
income, compared to
proprietors
93
16%
117
12/0
144
12%
181
°
11 h _
n:
26 G
12% in 1990. From
1990 to 1999,
proprietor's income grew
Non -Labor Sources
156
26%
330
33%
493
41%
660
41%
34°,6
by 26%, in real terms.
Dlvidericfs Interest &Rent
94
16%
208
21%
304
25%
418
26%
376,6
Wage and salary
Transfer Payments
62
10%
121
12%
189
16%
242
15%
28%
income during those
years grew by 42%.
Percentages do not add to 100 because of adjustments made by BEA, such as residence, social security, and others.
• From 1990 to 1999 Non- Wage and salaryis monetary remuneration of employees, including employee contributions to certain deferred compensatio
Labor Income sources programs, such as 401(K) plans.
grew by 34%.
Other labor incomeis payments by employers to privately administered benefit plans for their employees, the fees paid to
corporate directors, and miscellaneous fees. The payments to private benefit plans account for more than 98 percent.of othe
labor income.
Proprietors is income of sole proprietorships, partnerships and tax-exempt cooperatives. A sole proprietorship is an
unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an unincorporated business association of two or more partne
A tax-exempt cooperative is a nonprofit business organization that is collectively owned by its members.
P-11
Flathead County, MT
Average Earnings Per $35,000
Job
$30,000
Average earnings per job in
$25,000
Flathead County, MT, in
ca
real terms, have fallen from
-aa
$20,000
$28,288 in 1970 to $22,392
rn
in 1999.
°'
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000 ' IT1
Average wage and salary disbursements
- - - Average earnings per job (dollars)
—+— Average nonfarm proprietors' income
23,342
22,392
14,299
Average Earnings $40,000
Compared to State
and Nation $35,000
34,384
i
` $30,000
Average earnings per job in
Flathead County, MT are v° `
lower than the state and the $25,000
nation. °' - HAM
c
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000 ' I I I . -I I
rl,
Nq-�� �� �e Ne No' N>j N(>j Ic 0 Nq Nq Nq N'� Nq Nq
United States
- - - Montana
—Flathead County, MT
P-12
Flathead County, MT
Another way to look at industry trends is to group industries
differently, as shown in the table. This grouping allows a
more detailed review of "service" sectors, which can be
broken down into categories such as producer, consumer,
social, and government services. Consumer services are
generally low -paying. They include jobs in amusement and
recreation, hotel and lodging, repair shops, motion pictures,
household and personal services.
Labor Income by
Industry Grouping
In 1989, the largest two
industry groupings were in
Transformative and
Government. The largest
two "service" types were
Government and Producer
Services.
Labor Income by
Industry Grouping
In 1999, the largest two
industry groupings were in
Transformative and
Producer Services. The
largest two "service" types
were Producer Services and
Government.
Social services include education and health care.
Government services include state and local government,
military, as well as federal employees, and public lands
agencies. Producer services are defined as those services
that are part of goods production and they include some of
the higher paying sectors, such as finance, insurance, real.
estate, legal and business services, membership
organizations, and engineering and management services.
Government
AGO/
Social Services
10%
Producer Service
12%
Services
6%
1999 Government
1 Fo/
Social Services
12%
Producer Servic
16%
1989
Retail Trade
12%
msformative
32%
-1. ,utive
12%
isformative
26%
listributive
10%
Consumer Retail Trade
Services 14%
P-13
Personal Income
Chan e b
g y
Category 1989
`
All figures in thousands of 1999
dollars.
1989
1999
New Income
% of Nevi
% Change Income
Total Personal Income 1,172,130 1,620,301 ' 448,171
38%
to 1999
LABOR INCOME
Transformative
The largest contributors
Agriculture
11,309
12,610
1,301
to new personal income
Mining
2,956
6,252
3,296
from 1989 to 1999 in
Construction
48,994
100,179
51,185
real terms, were:
Manufacturing
182,282
164,161
-18,121
Total
245,540
283,202
37,662
15% 8%
Distributive
Transportation & public utilities
64,997
76,723
11,726
Wholesale Trade
24,907
31,147
6,240
The fastest growth was
Total
89,904
107,870
17,966
20% 4%
in the Producer Services
Retail Trade
94,650
143,597
48,947
52% 11%
sectors; 86% growth.
Consumer Services
Hotels & Other Lodging
11,731
21,689
9,958
Personal Services
7,696
11,085
3,389
Household Services
2,253
2,227
-26
Repair Services
14,161
22,222
8,061
Motion Pictures
834
1,468
634
The second fastest
Amusements & Recreation
5,324
12,729
7,405
growth was in the
Total
41,999
71,420
29,421
70% 7%
Consumer Services
sectors; 70%growth.
Producer Services
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
34,281
70,403
36,122
Legal Services
17,700
15,616
-2,084
Business Services
18,287
39,515
21,228
Engineering & Management Service
12,997
33,535
20,538
Membership Organizations
5,969
6,803
834
The third fastest growth
Total
89,234
165,872
76,638
86% 17%
was in the Social
Social Services
Services sectors; 55%
Health Services
71,236
109,504
38,268
growth.
Social Services
5,443
8,033
2,590
Educational Services
1,166
3,359
2,193
Total
77,845
120,896
43,051
55% 10%
Government Services
Federal, Civilian
39,005
43,016
4,011
Military
5,376
5,493
117
State and Local
79,142
103,010
23,868
Total
123,522
151,519
27,997
23% 6%
Note: This table begins in 1988 because Engineering and Management Services did not exist as an SIC
category until that year. The sum of the above categories does not add to total because non -labor income is not
included. See page P-9 for non -labor income data.
P-14
Flathead Countv. MT
The term "Non -Labor Income" is also referred by some economists as "Non -Earnings Income". It consists of Dividends, Interest and
Rent (collectively often referred to as money earned from past investments) and Transfer Payments (payments from governments to
individuals, age -related, including Medicare, disability insurance payments, and retirements).
(See methods section for definitions and further explanations.)
All figures in millions of 1999 dollars
1970
% of
Total
TP
1980
% of
Total
TP
1999
% of
Total
TP
New
Payments
1970 to 1999
% of New
Payments
Total transfer payments
61.8
121.3
242.1
180.3
Government payments to individuals
57.9
94%
113.6
94%
228.3
94%
170.5
95%
Retirement & disab. insurance benefit payments
35.8
58%
67.5
56%
128.6
53%
92.7
51 %
Medical payments
6.62
11%
17.82
15%
66.68
28%
60.1
33%
Income maintenance benefit payments ("welfare")
2.0
3%
8.0
7%
14.4
6%
12.4
7%
Unemployment insurance benefit payments
4.5
7%
10.6
9%
7.1
3%
2.6
1%
Veterans benefit payments
8.6
14%
8.3
7%
9.7
4%
1.1
1%
Federal educ. & trng. asst. pay. (excl. vets)
0.3
0.6%
1.2
1.0%
1.5
0.6%
1.2
1%
Other payments to individuals
0.1
0.2%
0.2
0.1%
0.4
0.2%
0.3
0%
Payments to nonprofit institutions
2.3
4%
4.7
4%
8.2
3%
6.0
3%
Business payments to individuals
1.7
3%
3.0
2%
5.5
2%
3.9
2%
Labor vs. Non -Labor
Income Stability
Over the last 28 years Non -Labor
Income sources have had a
stabilizing effect compared to the
frequent fluctuations of Labor
Income sources.
15%
CU
10%
a
W 5%
0-
E
0%
a=i -10%
U
N
0_
Non -Labor (investments, retirement, etc.) - - - Labor Income
P-15
Flathead County, MT
Trends in Non -Labor
450
Income by Type
400
i 350
The largest components of Non-
`_°
Labor Income are from Dividends,
a 300
Interest & Rent (i.e. money earned
o
c rn 250
from past investments).
-ar'
0 0 200
U)
0 150
2 100
In 1999 welfare represented 6
percent of transfer payments, and
less than one percent of total
personal income. This is down
slightly from 1980 and up from
1970.
Components of Transfer
Payments
In 1999, 69% of Transfer Payments
were from age -related sources
(retirement, disability, insurance
payments, and Medicare) while 6%
was from welfare.
50 1- -
^O ^r1r N'01 ^ro 4b �O _CV� �co �W �� �� oC fro �W
^I lc" 1� I°j 125
Dividends, Interest & Rent
- - - Age -related (Retirement, Disability & Medicare)
-Income Maintenance (Welfare)
1999
Age -related
(Retirement,
Disability &
Medicare)
69%
Income
R.
tenance
alfare)
6%
Other
25%
P-16
i
All figures in thousands of 1999 dollars
1970
% of
Gross
Income
% of
Gross
1980 Income
% of
Gross
1999 Income
Gross Income (Cash + Other)
51,479
49,940
33,689
Cash Receipts from Marketings
43,097
84%
45,057
90%
24,878
74%
Livestock & Products
32,285
63%
23,385
47%
8,528
25%
Crops
10,812
21%
21,672
43%
16,350
49%
Other Income
8,382
16%
4,883
10%
8,811
26%
Government Payments
3,813
7%
299
1 %
1,915
6%
Imputed Rent & Rent Received
4,569
9%
4,584
9%
6,896
20%
Production Expenses
41,315
45,405
34,619
Realized Net Income (Income - Expenses)
10,163
4,535
(930)
Value of Inventory Change
1,189
2%
(176)
0%
163
0%
Total Net Income_(Inc. corporate farms)
11,353
4,359
(767)
80
Farm Income by Category
70
(Includes Ranching)
60
In 1970, 63% of gross farm income
m
was from livestock, while 21 % was
50
from crops. By 1999, 25% percent of
°'
40
gross income was from livestock,
o o
�....�
and 49% percent from crops.
30
� o
20
is
• r
* .
10
Income from government payments
has dropped from 7% of gross in
0
1970 to 6% in 1999.
-ro �4,
�O R,
R4 Sf) RP
1°b
"°b No>j
No' N°e 1°b '�°�
N '� N(:b ''° 'moo'
Gross income
- -
- Total crops
-Total
livestock & products
--- ---
Imputed income &
rent received
Government payments
P-17
Flathead County, MT
Net Farm Income
Total net income from farming
and ranching in Flathead
County, MT, in real terms,
dropped from $11.4 million in
1970 to $4.4 million in 1980,
and then dropped to -$0.8
million in 1999.
Gross Income vs.
Production Expenses
In 1990 Gross Farm Income
exceeded Production Expenses
by $3 million.
By 1999 Gross Farm Income
minus Production Expenses
(realized net income) equaled -
$0.9 million.
20
15
`m
0 10
a
0 0)
c �
5
c w
0
a� 0
.0 0
-5
-10
�Q) N N N �`b W� �� - �d �� � �ry �b �� oil
Net farm income can be counted as positive by the Department of
Commerce, even with slim margins, because the value of inventories
may rise.
iE
70
60
0 50`• �..
0
C Q)
°' 40 '
0 0
a)c30
ILo
20
10
0
AZ �y N AZ ^� �O ��Y err - 1b �Cb o - - ' �ro �W
Production expenses - - - Gross income
P-18
Flathead County, MT
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports personal income in terms of location of residence. BEA calculates how much
money is earned in the county by people living outside the county (Total Gross Earnings Outflow) and it calculates how much
money is brought into the county by residents who work outside of the county (Total Gross Earnings Inflow). Subtracting one from
the other gives the Net Residence Adjustment. The Inflow and Outflow Trends indicate whether the county is closely tied to others
in terms of commuting.
Inflow & Outflows
Outflow outpaces Inflow. (See
definitions above.)
A negative Net Residential
Adjustment indicates in -commuting
for work from adjacent counties.
Outflows as a Percent of
Total Personal Income
In 1999, outflow represented 1.6% of
total personal income in Flathead
County, MT, up from 1.2% during the
1980's.
30
25
_m
o 20
"a
00
rn
0' 15
0
0
0 10
2
5
6
4
2
m
0 (2)
rn (4)
rn
(6)
uo, (8)
c
0(10)
�(12)
(14)
W^ ��P5 ' ^ 40 0�
�Cb4ry4�P)Cb<9 b0 _C50iC505c_�
1qI�� C"�l1126 'C"�1� �2"C��-C"�"C"F" 'C"
2.0%
m 1.8%
0 1.6%
U
c 1.4%
c 1.2%
0
1.0%
a 0.8%
m
0.6%
0 0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0 Wry WA'��WPC8)W^5�-0_�� ci on'Sh(b �b C^c�_o'
Gross
Earnings
Inflow
- - - Gross
Earnings
Outflow
Net
Residence
Adjustment
P-19
Flathead County, MT
In its annual report County Business Patterns, the Bureau of the Census lists employment by the size and type of employer. These
statistics are useful to help determine what size of business, large or small, are adding most of the new jobs.
New Firms by
Employment Size
1990 to 1999
The majority of new
businesses established in
Flathead County, MT from
1990 to 1999 have been
small, with fewer than 20
employees.
The largest growth has been
in firms of 1-4 employees,
with 554 new businesses.
Number of Firms by
Major Category in
1999
The majority of firms are in
Retail trade (509 firms)
followed by Construction
(425 firms), and
Accommodation & food
services (318 firms).
1000 or more
500-999
y 250-499
d
a�
0 100-249
a-
E
w 50-99
4-
0
L
20-49
E
z 10-19
5-9
1-4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Number of Firms
Retail trade
Construction
Accommodation & food services
Other services (except public administration)
Health care and social assistance
Professional, scientific & technical services
Finance & insurance
Real estate & rental & leasing
Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services
Manufacturing
Transportation & warehousing
Wholesale trade
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support
Information
Educational services
Utilities
Mining
Management of companies & enterprises
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Number of Firms
Note: Data for this page was obtained from Gunty Business Pattems (CBP), which counts only wage and salary employment.
Therefore the self-employed ("proprietors" in previous sections of this profile) are not counted, and therefore total employment is
underestimated. Also, data on this page was reported by CBP using the NAICS system. Previous pages used data from REIS, which
uses the SIC system. See Methods Section for a discussion on the transition from SIC to NAICS.
P-20
Flathead County, MT
Annual Average
Unemployment Rate
Comparing County to
State
• In 2000, the unemployment rate in
Flathead County, MT was 6.1 %,
compared to 4.9% for the state
and 4.0% for the nation.
Annual Average
Unemployment Rate
Compared to the Nation
P-21
This page is blank because the Economic Profile System does not contain Unemployment data for this
area.
P-2I
Flathead County, MT
APPENDICES
Data Sources
Data for this profile were obtained from five sources:
• Regional Economic Information System (REIS CD-ROM) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
US Department of Commerce.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor.
• County Business Patterns, Bureau of the Census, US Department of Commerce.
• Bureau of Census, US Department of Commerce.
The data in this profile is organized to show long-term trends at the county level. We used this
method and geographic scale for several reasons: (1) trend analysis provides a more comprehensive
view of change than spot data for select years, (2) the most reliable information on long-term
employment and income trends is available at the county level, and (3) communities within counties
rarely function as economic units themselves. Finally, even though in many areas the most accurate
geographic scale to understand economic changes may be at the multi -county or regional level,
county -level data is useful in the context of existing politicaljurisdictions, such as county
commissions and planning departments. The list below contains the World Wide Web sites and
telephone numbers for the databases used in this report:
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
http://www.bea.doe.gov, Tel. 202-606-9600
Bureau of Labor Statistics:
http://stats.bis.gov:80/blshome; Tel. 202-606-5886
Bureau of Census:
http://www.census.gov, Tel. 303-969-7750
Oregon State University, Government Information Sharing Project:
http://govinfo.library.orst.edu; Tel. 541-7374514.
University of Virginia, Geospatial and Statistical Data Center:
http://fisher.lib.virginia.edu; Tel. 804-982-2630
P-22
Flathead Countv, MT
Use of Federal Rather than State Data Bases
Data from state agencies was not used for this profile. Many of the state and local sources of data
do not include information on the self-employed or on the importance of non -labor income, such
as retirement income and money earned from past investments. In many counties this can result
in the underestimation of employment and total personal income by at least one third. The REIS
disk of the Bureau of Economic Analysis contains the most robust data set and for this reason it
was used as the primary sources.
The only disadvantage of REIS dataset is the data is not as recent; 1997 being the latest for REIS,
Mile state data sources provide data for as recent as 1998 and in some instances 1999. By
providing long-term trends data, from 1970 to 1997, having the most recent data is less important
than being able to discern where the county's economy was, and the direction in which it is
headed in recent years.
The Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) System
Employment and income information is organized by the US Department of Commerce according
to the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code. Industries are classified in broad categories
(e.g., Farm), sub -categories (e.g., Agricultural production - crops), and progressively finer levels
of detail (e. g., Ag. Production — cash grains). For a detailed description of SIC codes consult The
Standard Industrial Classification Manual (National Technical Information Service, order no. PB-
100012, Tel. 703487-4600).
Since much of the growth in labor earnings in the US economy over the last two decades has been
in "services," it should noted that the term is defined in various ways by different researchers.
Some economists define services broadly as "all output that does not come from the four goods -
producing sectors: agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and construction."' The US Department of
Commerce defines services more narrowly as major groups 70-89 of the SIC code. z However,
even their restricted classification includes a wide variety of sectors, ranging from hotels and
lodging, and social services to business services, and engineering and management services.
' E. Ginzberg and G.J. Vojta. 1981. "The Service Sector in the US Economy." Scientific
American. 244 (3): 48-55.
2 SIC codes 70-89 are: Hotels, Lodging and Other Places, Personal Services, Business Services,
Auto Repair, Miscellaneous Repair Services, Motion Pictures, Amusement and Recreation
Services, Health Services, Legal Services, Educational Services, Social Services, Museum
Services, Museums, Botanical, and Zoological Services, Engineering and Management Services,
Private Households, and Services Not Elsewhere Classified
P-23
Flathead County, MT
In this profile we define services broadly as "Services and professional" industries, and then also
into categories -- such as producer, consumer, social and government services --to gain a clearer
picture of where service growth is taking place. We use the term Services and professional to
underscore an important point: service occupations are not just "hamburger flippers and maids," but
rather consist of a combination of high -paying and low -paying professions, mixing physicians with
barbers, and chambers maids with architects and financial consultants.
According to economist Lester Thurow, "Services is simply too heterogeneous to be an interesting
category. The real issue is not the growth of services but whether the economy is making a
successful transition from low -wage, low -skill industries ... to high -wage, high-sldll industries."'
One way to gauge this is to follow the long-term trends in average earnings per job.
A Transition from SIC system to NAICS:
An Important Precaution on the Interpretation of Economic Trend Data.
Most of the historic data, from 1970 to 1998, used in this profile is based on industry data that is
organized by the U.S. Department of Commerce using the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
system. In the next few years, depending on the agency, data will organized according to a new
system, called the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS, pronounced `Ynakes").
In this profile, only the section called Business Establishments, which uses data from County
Business Patterns, is organized according the NAICS system.
The NAICS system is an improvement to the SIC system in several ways: first, businesses that use
similar processes to produce goods or services are classified together. Previously, under the SIC
system, some businesses were classified on the basis of their production processes while others were
classified under different principles, such as class of consumer. Second, NAICS is a flexible system
that will be updated every five years in order to keep pace with changes in the economy. Third, the
NAICS system recognizes the uniqueness and rising importance of the "information economy," and
provides several new categories that are new, such as cable program distributors, and database and
directory publishers. Finally, and perhaps the most useful, the NAICS system provides seven
sectors to better reflect services -producing businesses that were previously combined into one
generic SIC division (the Services division). This new system allows the data user to differentiate
more clearly between what was previously often lumped under the general heading of "services,"
into categories such as arts and entertainment; education; professional, scientific and technical
services; health care and social assistance, among others.
Arguably the most important change of NAICS is the recognition of hundreds of new businesses in
the economy. NAICS divides the economy into 20 broad sectors rather than the SIC's 10 divisions
as seen in the table below. Creating these additional sector -level groupings allows NAICS to better
reflect key business activities as well as chronicle their changes.
' Lester Thurow, The Future of Capitalism (New York: William and Morrow and Company), p. 71.
P-24
Flathead County, MT
SIC Divisions vs. NAICS Sectors
• Services • Information
• Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
• Administrative and Support and Waste
• Management and Remediation Services
• Educational Services
• Health Care and Social Assistance
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
• Other Services (except Public Administration)
+= Pulrtxc Admix#istrat�oi<i • .. >ubldtninislraboadi
None (previously, categories within each • Management of Companies and Enterprises
division)
Non -Labor Income
Non -labor income is a mix of Dividends, Interest, and Rent (money earned from past
investments), and Transfer Payments (government payments to individuals). Private pension
funds (e.g. 401K plans) are not counted as part of transfer payments_
Some data sources, such as `Section 202' data available from state unemployment insurance
records and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, do not report non -labor income. The
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), on the other hand, tracks non -labor income. In order to
understand the actual growth (labor and non -labor) of personal income, the REISBEA data set
must be used, and this is what was used for this profile.
Disclosures
Some data, such as employment and income figures in counties with small economies, are not
available because of confidentiality restrictions. In order to protect information about
individual businesses, data are sometimes suppressed or, in the case of the publication County
Business Patterns, a range of values are given instead of a specific value. Generally, the
smaller the geographic level of analysis or the smaller the economy under examination the
higher the chances that industry -specific information will be suppressed.
P-25
Flathead County, MT
In some of the profiles a few disclosure restrictions were encountered. Sometimes County
Business Patterns data was used to estimate data where disclosures exist in the REIS/BEA
database. In other instances the missing data was left blank, particularly if doing so has little
effect on the ability to discern long-term trends. In other cases, where data was missing for
one or two years, a rolling average was used to estimate the data gaps. In each case where
disclosures were estimated, annotations were made in the Excel files.
Adiustments from Current to Real Dollars
Because a dollar in the past was worth more than a dollar today, data reported in current
dollar terms should be adjusted for inflation. The US Department of Commerce reports
personal income figures in terms of current dollars. All income data in this profile were
adjusted to real (or constant) 1997 dollars using the Consumer Price Index.
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment is generally available as seasonally unadjusted or adjusted, and there is an
advantage to using adjusted data. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics web site
(http://stats.bls.gov/lauseas.htm), an explanation of why adjusted figures should be used,
whenever possible: "Over the year, the size of the Nation's labor force, the levels of
employment and unemployment, and other measures of labor market activity undergo sharp
fluctuations due to seasonal events including changes in weather, harvests, major holidays,
and the opening and closing of schools. Because these seasonal events follow a more or less
regular pattern each year, their influence on statistical trends can be eliminated by adjusting
the statistics from month to month. These adjustments make it easier to observe the cyclical,
long term trend, and other non -seasonal movements in the series."
Unadjusted numbers were used in this profile in order to obtain an annual average and
because county -level data are not available in adjusted format from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics web site: This may introduce some error in counties where the size of the workforce
fluctuates seasonally, such as tourist destination areas.
P-26
Flathead County, MT
Income:
Total Personal Income = private earnings, income from government and government enterprises,
dividends, interest, and rent, and transfer payments plus adjustments for residence minus personal
contributions for social insurance.
Wage and salary= monetary remuneration of employees, including employee contributions to certain
deferred compensation programs, such as 401 K plans.
Other labor income = payments by employers to privately administered benefit plans for their
employees, the fees paid to corporate directors, and miscellaneous fees. The payments to private
benefit plans account for more than 98 percent of other labor income
Proprietors' income = income from sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. A
sole proprietorship is an unincorporated business owned by a person. A partnership is an
unincorporated business association of two or more partners. A tax-exempt cooperative is a nonprofit
business organization that is collectively owned by its members.
Transfer Payments:
Transfer payments = payments to persons for which they do not render current services. As a
component of personal income, they are payments by government and business to individuals and
nonprofit institutions.
Retirement & disab. insurance benefit payments = Old -Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance
payments (Social Security), Railroad Retirement and Disability payments, Federal Civilian Employee
& Disability Payments, Military Retirement, and State and Local Government Employee retirement
payments.
Medical payments = Medicare, public assistance medical care and CHAMPUS payments.
Income maintenance (welfare) = Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Aid to Families with
Dependent Children (AFDC), Food Stamps, and Other Income Maintenance Payments, such as
emergency assistance, foster care payments and energy assistance payments.
Unemployment insurance benefit payments = unemployment compensation for state and federal
civilian employees, unemployment compensation for railroad workers, and unemployment
compensation for veterans.
Veterans benefits = primarily compensation to veterans for their disabilities and payments to their
survivors.
Federal education and training assistance = Job Corps payments, interest payments on Guaranteed
Student Loans, federal fellowship payments, and student assistance for higher education.
Other government payments = compensation of survivors of public safety officers and compensation
of victims of crime. In Alaska this item includes Alaska Permanent Fund payments.
Payments to nonprofit institutions = payments for development and research contracts. For example,
it includes payments for foster home care supervised by private agencies.
Business payments to individuals = personal -injury liability payments, cash prizes, and pension
benefits financed by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation.
P-27