Chapter 2Kalispell City Airport Feasibility/Master Plan Study August 1999
CHAPTER TWO - FORECASTS
Forecasts of future aviation demand are to be addressed in sufficient detail to confirm the
forecasted need for a 1341' airport.
Two critical tasks that are part of forecasting future aviation demand are establishing
baseline values for based aircraft, aircraft mix, local and itinerant air operations, air taxi, and military
air operations, and determining an appropriate rate of growth. Of the two tasks, determining the
baseline is both more critical and more difficult.
In order to determine this baseline Morrison-Maierle used three sources: FAA Form 5010
Airport Master Record, first hand observation, and surveys of local area pilots. A discussion of the
results of Morrison-Maierle, Inc. observation and the pilot's survey is included in the previous
chapter.
Baseline values of based aircraft mix, local and itinerant air operations, air taxi and military
air operations are summarized below in Table 3.
Table 3 - Baseline Summary
Based Aircraft Air Operation
Source Single Multi Glider Air Taxi Itinerant Local Military
FAA
56
3
1
6,400
13,600
14,000
1,000
Form
5010
Observed
56
6
3
0
Pilots
20
3
14,646
1,628
Survey
Study
56
6
3
6,400
13,600
14,000
100
Baseline
8Airport Reference Code (ARC) from Federal Aviation Administration Advisory Circular (AC) 15015300-13
Airport Design. The ARC has two components relating to the airport design aircraft. The first component, depicted
by a letter, is the aircraft approach category and relates to the aircraft approach speed. The second component, depicted
by a Roman numeral, is the airplane design group and relates to airplane wingspan. In this case, a B-II airport would
be one that the design aircraft (defined as the most demanding aircraft which uses the airport at least 500 takeoffs,
landings, or touch-and-gos) has an approach speed of at least 91 knots, but less than 121 knots, and having a Ningspan
of at least 49 feet but less that 79 feet.
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Kalispell City Airport Feasibility/Master Plan Study August 1999
For the purpose of this study, observed data for based aircraft shall be used as the base line.
The itinerant air operations reported on FAA Form 5010 Airport Master Record shall be used as a
base line for itinerant air operations. This is slightly less than the national estimate9 that an airport
has 300 itinerant operations per year per based aircraft (total would be 18,600 itinerant air
operations). Local air operations reported on the FAA Form 5010 shall be used as the base line for
local air operations. Military operations reported on the FAA Form 5010 are probably inflated. A
more probable baseline figure is 100 military operations per year. 10
In the past, the Airport has shown no growth periods and even periods of declining based
aircraft and use. However, the trends may be correlated with declines in the economy or
deterioration of facilities. The proposed forecasts, assume improved facilities.
According to FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 Airport Design, in the absence of
observed data, an estimate of 538 air operations per based aircraft could be used to estimate the total
number of operations." This is a total air operations estimate of 33,356 total operations, which
agrees with the FAA Form 5010.
The survey indicated that there are no B-II aircraft based at Kalispell City Airport at present,
however, it also indicated that at least one pilot was interested in acquiring a Cessna Conquest
sometime in the next ten years, if adequate facilities were available.
In the Glacier Park International Airport Master Plan Update, dated January 20,1995, it was
estimated that air operations at Glacier Park International Airport would increase at a rate of 1.9%
annually. This rate of growth seems reasonable, if optimistic, for the whole Flathead Valley_
Forecasts are summarized in Table 4 and Table 5 and illustrated in Figures 3, 4 and 5.
The forecasts presented reflect improved facilities as discussed in future chapters. If no
improvements are made, the following forecasts would probably be optimistic at best. Improved
facilities, such as new and longer runway pavements, would probably be necessary to achieve the
projected forecasts.
Additionally, should the facilities at Kalispell City Airport be improved, the potential for
larger and faster aircraft is increased. The longer runway provides a more desirable environment for
9US Department of Commerce, National Technical Information Service, ADA 257658, Estimating the Regional
Economic Significance of Airports, Page 8.
10 This is based on a conversation with FBO who estimated actual military use of Kalispell City Airport
at 2 to 3 per month.
"AC 150/5300-13 Airport Design, Appendix 5, page 117.
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Kalispell City Airport Feasibility/Master Plan Study August 1999
corporate jet traffic. However, the City may desire to place aircraft restrictions to size and approach
speeds of aircraft to minimize the effects of this type of aircraft.
Table 4 - Forecast Air Operations
2003
2008
2013
2018
Air Taxi
6,720
7,056
7,409
7,779
G/A Local
15,410
16,951
18,646
20,511
G/A Itinerant
15,630
17,964
20,646
23,728
Military
109 _F
119
130 -T
141
`Total
37,869
1 42,089 1
46,830
1 52,159
Table 5 - Forecast Based Aircraft
2003
2008
2013
2018
Single -engine
65
72
80
90
Multi -engine
9
12
15
20
Jet
0
0
1
1
Glider
3
3
4
5
Helicopter
1
1
2
3
Total
78
88
102
119
16
I
f
t
BYO
1 um
1